AC Milan enter the final game of the season staring at multiple complex scenarios, and they will be eager to clinch a top-four place with a win over Cagliari.
Serie A braces for a tight finish to an exciting top-four race, with AC Milan firmly in the thick of the action. Massimiliano Allegri’s men are not completely safe from losing out on a Champions League spot, but on first viewing, the chances of making it through are in their own hands.
Given that Serie A takes head-to-head record into play rather than goal difference if two or more teams are level on points, a complex situation is brewing. With two of the four top-four places yet to be finalised, Milan, AS Roma, Como, and Juventus are all in the mix. As for the Rossoneri, the safest way to finish in the top four is by winning against Cagliari.
On initial viewing, a draw against the Serie A strugglers, coupled with Como and Juventus registering wins, would lead to a sticky situation. However, there is a possibility they could remain in the top four from another angle, while a win along with a loss for Napoli against Udinese could even see Milan finish runners-up to champions Inter Milan.
In any case, they must not make things harder for themselves, considering the ever-changing scenarios in the background, and instead focus on getting a straightforward win over Cagliari. The other benefit is that this game is played at San Siro, and Milan only recently ended a run of three games without a win in the league, which threatened to see them end the season on a bad note.
Cagliari, who only recently managed to steer clear of the relegation zone and confirmed their place in next season’s top-flight roster, may feel the pressure is off their backs. Hence, there is every chance for Milan to take advantage of this situation, as their visitors might let their guard down.
Team News & Tactics
AC Milan
There is plenty of positive news for Massimiliano Allegri as he chooses his starting eleven for this Cagliari fixture. There is a triple boost, as Rafael Leao, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Pervis Estupinan are all available following their suspensions for the game against Genoa.
There is also a surprise return for Luka Modric, who has made a rapid recovery from a serious facial injury and is now pencilled in to start for Milan. With that in mind, Allegri could have his main midfield partnership available for a game considered extremely important, as Adrien Rabiot and Youssouf Fofana could start alongside the Croat.
The big selection headache will come in the offensive unit, as Allegri might not want to break up the improving partnership between Christopher Nkunku and Santiago Gimenez.
Given that Leao and Christian Pulisic have played as a front two for most of the season yet struggled for a considerable period, Allegri could continue with Gimenez and Nkunku against Cagliari this weekend.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Gimenez
Cagliari
Fabio Pisacane has a few injury issues to deal with himself ahead of his team selection for the final game of the season. Without much jeopardy attached to this fixture as far as Cagliari are concerned, their manager is expected to pick a squad he feels will do justice to this clash.
On the injury front, Mattia Felici and Riyad Idrissi are long-term absentees with respective ACL problems. Joseph Liteta and Leonardo Pavoletti are absent from proceedings, while there are considerable doubts about Luca Mazzitelli’s participation in this trip to San Siro. There is positive news with the return of centre-back Ze Pedro after he served a one-game suspension.
Pisacane is likely to select a familiar lineup against Milan, with former Inter Milan star Sebastiano Esposito set to lead the line. The attacker is one goal away from equalling his best-ever tally in a top-flight campaign, currently sitting on seven goals.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Caprile; Ze Pedro, Mina, Dossena; Palestra, Adopo, Gaetano, Folorunsho, Obert; Esposito, Mendy
Key Stats
- AC Milan may need a win to consolidate a top-four place.
- AC Milan could also finish as runners-up if they win and Napoli loses their game.
- Cagliari have collected just two points from their six away fixtures since January.
- Cagliari have not beaten AC Milan away from home since June 1997.
Player to Watch
Christopher Nkunku
Following his move from Chelsea last summer, Nkunku has not had the bright season he and many others may have envisaged. However, a contribution of seven goals in the league alone has been important as far as Massimiliano Allegri is concerned, and more importantly, the manager will look at how the Frenchman has fared when the chips were down.
Two goals in as many previous games, Nkunku is now seen as a crucial cog to help Milan over the line with their Champions League qualification. The Frenchman is widely expected to start against Cagliari, and Allegri will want another goalscoring display from him, which could arguably be one of the most important individual contributions for Milan this season.
Prediction
AC Milan 2-1 Cagliari
Cagliari have nothing to gain from this fixture apart from the fact that their manager would want a strong finish to the season. However, they are coming to San Siro, where they have not tasted success of any form since June 1997, and this could be another one of those days when that record extends further.
Milan have a complex situation in front of them with regards to holding on to their top-four place. Given the rules and also the shifting standings depending on what happens elsewhere, the best possible route for the Rossoneri to secure a Champions League spot would be to win against Cagliari, and they are favourites to do exactly that on Sunday.