Chelsea FC destroyed Arsenal FC in their 6-0 win at Stamford Bridge to end their title challenge., Here is a look at the both clubs’ short term future.
The suspensions of Willian and Ramires appeared to have little effect as Chelsea ended the match by the 17th minute. Much like Liverpool, Chelsea found success early and often through heavy pressing in midfield and swiftly counterattacking. Arsenal, on the other hand, played right into Chelseaai??i??s pressure, instead of employing a strategy similar to the one they employed at White Hart Lane last Sunday. Ultimately, this match represents the end to Arsenalai??i??s title challenge, making it a three-team race for the title and lets us look at the both clubs’ in the short term.
How They Shaped Up
Both teams set out in 4-2-3-1 shapes. However, the sides differed in how they used the 4-2-3-1 formation. Arsenal played their first choice back five with Wojciech Szczesny in goal, Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker at center back, Bacary Sagna at right-back, and Kieran Gibbs at left-back. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mikel Arteta played at the base of midfield. In front of them was Tomas Rosicky on the right, Santi Cazorla in the center, and Lukas Podolski on the left and a bit more advanced that Rosicky and Cazorla. Olivier Giroud was fielded at center forward. Away to Chelsea, Arsenal looked to play on the front foot. In possession, Oxlade-Chamberlain looked to move up the field, towards the right side, allowing Rosicky to cut inside. Both full-backs advanced in order to provide support out wide. All of this played right into Chelseaai??i??s hands.
Chelsea had their normal back 5 of Petr Cech in goal, Gary Cahill and John Terry at center back, Cesar Azpilicueta at left-back, and Branislav Ivanovic at right-back. David Luiz sat in front of them, with Nemanja Matic taking a more advanced position, relative to the Brazilian. Chelsea had an attacking trio of Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Andre Schurrle behind Samuel Etoai??i??o. Chelsea played their reactive brand of football with a slight twist. Instead of sitting deep, soaking up pressure, and springing forward whenever possession happened to change hands, Mourinho had his men press Arsenal in central midfield. In particular, he used Matic to pressure the likes of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, and Arteta. Arsenal have struggled before against this type of pressing, especially in their match against Liverpool. And like their match against Liverpool, a few early turnovers killed the match.
Arsenalai??i??s Inconsistency In Strategy In Big Games
A strategy is the plan one sets out to achieve a certain goal. The tactics are the specific elements of that plan of action. While people may talk about tactics in this match, Arsenalai??i??s failure did not come down to poor tactics. It came down to poor strategy. In this match, like the loss against Liverpool, and like the match against City, Arsenal looked to play on the front foot against sides that excel on the counterattack. In those three matches, they not only looked to play on the front foot, but did so in a manner that often left only two or three defenders to deal with an overloading counterattack. However, in matches against Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Tottenham Hotspur in the EPL, Arsenal were willing to cede possession, ensure that things were defensively solid, and then look to attack. This season has also seen Arsenal have an increased willingness to employ such a strategy against inferior opposition not named Tottenham.
Now, Arsenal needed a win. There is no doubting this. A 6-0 defeat is the same as a 1-0 defeat, three points dropped. A draw compared to a 6-0 defeat only represents a one point gain. Maybe this is a byproduct of growing up on American sports, Ai??More importantly, before this match, Arsenal were also contending with Liverpool (level on points) and Manchester City (two points back with two games in hand). With that many teams in the hunt, Arsenal would have needed all three teams to drop a certain number of points. This puts greater emphasis on winning matches, as draws force a side to rely too heavily on the results of other teams. However, the strategy used away to Dortmund seemed like the most appropriate strategy. In that match, even a draw would have significantly damaged Arsenalai??i??s chances of getting out of their Champions League group. Arsenal relied on their defense, particularly their goalkeeper, to keep the Dortmund from scoring. Then as the second half progressed, Arsenal showed an increased willingness to push forward, in search of that vital goal. They got their goal, but more importantly, in the context of the whole match, they successfully took Dortmundai??i??s greatest weapon away from them. These matches, especially those against some of the best in Europe, make the strategic decisions in this match more confounding.
Against Chelsea, when this line-up was announced, this author imagined a choice of strategy similar to the one employed at White Hart Lane, a 4-3-3/4-1-4-1, with Mikel Arteta as the deep-lying midfielder. While Mourinho did field two players with ability on the ball in Matic and Luiz, the attacking quartet is much more suited to a counter-attacking game. This is especially true of Etoai??i??o and Schurrle who play more as finishers and runners than their do manipulators and creators. Also, with an inverted full back in Azpilicueta and a center back at right back in Ivanovic, one should always wonder about their willingness to get forward and stay forward, to provide width in matches that Chelsea have a majority of the possession.
Instead, Arsenal looked to play on the front foot, leaving them vulnerable to Chelseaai??i??s greatest strength. Maybe Arsenal were looking for that first goal, and then they would sit back, defending their lead. Olivier Giroud could have provided that important goal, but he failed to hit a shot with any pace or placement. Instead, a pattern emerged where Arsenal would lose the ball, due to Chelseaai??i??s pressing or unforced errors, and Chelsea would transition quickly. While no Arsenal player covered themselves in glory, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, and Gibbs had the worst performances that this author can remember them having. Oxlade-Chamberalin and Cazorla were the two Arsenal players who made the most high-leverage mistakes in possession. Kieran Gibbs was nowhere to be found for some of Chelseaai??i??s goals and may have been culpable for more if he has not been improperly set off before the third goal. For Chelseaai??i??s first two goals, Koscielny was left to defend from the center of the pitch to the left touchline. When counterattacked, they overloaded the left side, forcing the Frenchman to deal with multiple attacking threats. While Chelsea did well to finish their chances, they did well to exploit Gibbsai??i?? poor positioning.
One wonders how this game would have progressed had Arsenal played a more reactive style. It is likely that such openings would not have appeared for Chelsea. Since multiple teams are involved in the title race, a draw would have hurt Chelseaai??i??s title bid significantly as well. Maybe Arsenal would have been the side with ability to overload on the counter-attack and score the important goal. What we do know is that Arsenalai??i??s title race is run.
Arsenal Title Run Is Over, So What Does The Future Hold?
With that loss, Arsenal have a maximum points total of 86. If Arsenal are to win the title, they would have to win out for the rest of the season. Even if Arsenal won all their matches, Chelsea have a maximum points total of 89, Manchester City would have one of 90, and Liverpool have one of 88. Plain and simple, Arsenal needed to win against Chelsea. The silver lining in all of this is that dropping out of the title race does allow Arsenal to focus on a winnable FA Cup. With no title race to distract them or fatigue them, Arsenal can ensure they have the best side available to them in those matches.
Going forward, Arsenal have much to be optimistic about. They have plenty of young talent who will continue to improve as individuals and in their understanding with one another. They have players like Mesut Ozil, Pre Mertesacker, and Laurent Koscielny secured at the club. They have some money to spend in the summer transfer window (more on this later). The only thing that can really throw this project off the tracks is a major transition at manager.
While many will call for Arsene Wengerai??i??s head after this match for getting his strategy completely wrong, any manager who comes in to replace Wenger represents a sizeable risk. Even more worrying in an attempt to replace Wenger is the availability of some of the best candidates (like Jurgen Klopp for example). To acknowledge one possible alternative type to Wenger, some fans might be satisfied by a manager who is willing to spend freely. Someone who will spend to in a world class center forward, a left winger, a holding midfielder, a third center back, and a right back. However, in all this talk about a transfer war chest available to Wenger, it is important to understand a few things.
First, any number reported, say 100 million pounds, is not an annual transfer budget. It is a rolling budget. If Wenger spends all 100 million, a new 100 million does not become available to him next season. So unlike the most wealthy clubs, who could operate with an annual 100 million pound transfer budget, Arsenal have to be cautious in how they spend 100 million pounds, lest you end up with a multitude of poorly utilized players like Tottenham. This is not just an issue of relatively higher opportunity cost with respect to which players to buy. If one believes in the efficacy of Financial Fair Play, then that means prices for players, in terms of transfer fees, wages, etc., will likely fall. In a situation of deflation, a person willing to maximize their resources has a greater incentive to hold onto money, as it will have higher value in the future. Therefore, the it may not be in the clubai??i??s interest, on the pitch, to have someone blow the entire budget or more in this upcoming window.
Second, that budget is not just for transfer fees. That budget includes wages, agent fees, bonuses, etc. For example, Arsenal paid 42.5 million pounds for Mesut Ozil. If one assumes he is on 180,000 pounds per week, gross salary, for five years, then that is another 46.8 million pounds. Ignoring how Arsenal factor in a discount rate with respect to wages or how saleable/liquid Mesut Ozil is as an asset, that is an outlay of 89.3 million pounds. Include agent fees, signing on fees, bonuses, and signing Mesut Ozil would have taken up almost the entire rumored budget for this summer. That is what 100 million pounds gets a club, one world class player, not three or four.
If Arsenal want to compete for Premier League titles against the financial clout of Manchester City and Chelsea, then they need a manager who can develop a side, spend wisely, and attract talent, in addition to all the other roles Wenger plays at the club (or you hope you get lucky buying a Uruguayan from the Dutch League and hope he develops into one of the ten best players in the world). Even a very good, but relatively limited manager, compared to Wenger, would necessitate a restructuring of Arsenalai??i??s football infrastructure (particularly human capital) or would rely on giving that manager the same roles Wenger had, hoping it works out. So while Arsene Wenger certainly has flaws, going forward, it may be that Arsenal are best served if the Frenchman stays at the club a little while longer.
Chelseaai??i??s Scary Second Year Potential
During Jose Mourinhoai??i??s first season at Porto, they won the Primeira Liga and the UEFA Cup. The next season, they won the Primeira Liga and the UEFA Champions League. During Mourinhoai??i??s first season at Chelsea won the Premier League, breaking the points record. However, in this second season, his team managed to win the title, exercising a greater control on their opponents. At Inter Milan, after winning Serie A, Inter did the treble in Mourinhoai??i??s second season. At Real Madrid, after failing to win the league in this first season, Real Madrid won the league, breaking the record for points, goals scored, goal difference, overall wins, and away wins in his second season. There seems to be a pattern.
Chelsea may win the title this season, but what is most frightening about this Chelsea team in the immediate future are the areas where they could brining in a significant upgrade. Depending on how they view financial fair play, and/or their ability to raise funds by selling the superfluous talent and/or the young talent they have loaned out to the world, Chelsea could upgrade at left back, right back, and center forward. Luke Shaw could be brought in from Southampton. Bringing in a right back, along with upgrading the position, allows Branislav Ivanovic to move to center back, freeing David Luiz to be sold. The upgrade at center forward may be the biggest one they will make this summer. While Etoai??i??o has shown an ability to finish and make runs, he is 33 years old and does not provide all the characteristics associated with center forwards Mourinho has favored. Fernando Torres, as witnessed in the Arsenal match, shows too much hesitancy when it comes to shooting or making the final pass. A player like Diego Costa would fit perfectly for Chelsea, taking them to another level in England and in Europe.
So while the ride might end quickly after the 2015-16 season, if Mourinhoai??i??s past behavior is a predictor of his future behavior, Chelsea may be the overwhelming favorites for the Premier League title and one of the top 4 contenders for the Champions League, next season.
Conclusion
Three points dropped for Arsenal and Chelsea are still in the title run. That is what one can take from this one match. However, it will be interesting to see the ramifications of the end of Arsenalai??i??s title run on the future of the club and Arsene Wenger (especially if they do not win the FA Cup). For Chelsea, this game keeps their title credentials strong. But this season will likely represent a fraction of the ability and domination that could come about in Mourinhoai??i??s second season, in his second stint, and Stamford Bridge.
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