Birmingham City will look to secure their first competitive victory at St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park this season when they welcome promotion-chasing Middlesbrough on Saturday afternoon.
The visitors arrive in strong form, while Birmingham will be encouraged by their impressive comeback victory at Derby County last weekend.
The Blues have made a respectable start to their return to the Championship, particularly considering their improved away form. Chris Davies’s side came from behind to beat Derby County 2-1 last weekend. Bobby Clark gave Derby the lead, but headed goals from Carlos Vicente and Paik Seung-ho completed the comeback.
The result means Birmingham have lost just one of their opening seven Championship matches, recording two wins and four draws. They currently sit tenth, just one point outside the top eight. One of the most encouraging developments has been the form of Liam Millar. The loan signing from Hull City has registered three assists in three appearances, providing the final pass for both goals against Derby.
The major concern remains their home record. Birmingham are still without a competitive victory at St. Andrew’s this season, recording three draws and one defeat across their four home matches. Meanwhile, Middlesbrough remain firmly involved near the top of the Championship as Kim Hellberg’s side extended their unbeaten league run to five matches with Tuesday’s 2-2 draw against Millwall.
Boro initially found themselves two goals behind after Tairyk Arconte and former Birmingham striker Lyndon Dykes put Millwall in control. However, Middlesbrough produced an impressive second-half response, with summer signings Will Lankshear and Amario Cozier-Duberry finding the net to rescue a point.
The result leaves Boro on 14 points, level with league leaders West Ham United. However, their recent away record against Birmingham is particularly impressive. Middlesbrough have won their last five Championship visits to St. Andrew’s, while their last defeat in the Second City came in October 2019.
The recent head-to-head record is heavily tilted towards Middlesbrough as Boro have won the last seven meetings between the clubs, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two and that includes five successive Championship victories at St. Andrew’s. Birmingham will therefore have a significant psychological hurdle to overcome, although their improved form under Davies means the hosts should provide a tougher challenge than the recent head-to-head record suggests.
Birmingham’s ability to recover from difficult positions has been evident recently, and their attacking transition could be important against Middlesbrough. Millar’s creativity will be one of the key weapons for the hosts. His three assists in three appearances demonstrate how quickly he has become an important attacking outlet.
Middlesbrough, meanwhile, have demonstrated considerable resilience themselves. Their comeback against Millwall showed that they can remain composed even when the game moves against them. The midfield battle could therefore be crucial, particularly if Birmingham attempt to disrupt Boro’s rhythm and prevent their attacking players from receiving the ball in dangerous areas. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Birmingham City
Despite scoring the winner against Derby County, Paik Seung-ho is expected to drop back to the bench, with Chris Davies likely to favour the more defensively minded Tomoki Iwata in midfield against one of the Championship’s leading sides.
Liam Millar has done enough to retain his place on the left wing after making an immediate impact since joining on loan. Carlos Vicente should continue on the opposite flank, with Patrick Roberts unavailable following a minor injury. Birmingham will also be without Kanya Fujimoto, who has joined Tokyo Verdy on loan for the remainder of the campaign. Marvin Ducksch remains among the substitutes.
The hosts are expected to use a 4-5-1 formation, with James Beadle in goal and Bright Osayi-Samuel, Phil Neumann, Christoph Klarer, and Alex Cochrane forming the back four. Iwata and Jhon Solis should provide the central midfield base, with Vicente, Jay Stansfield, and Millar operating ahead of them and Priske leading the line.
The selection of Iwata suggests Davies is likely to prioritise defensive stability against a Middlesbrough side that has gone five Championship matches unbeaten. Millar remains a major attacking outlet. With three assists in his first three appearances, his ability to deliver from the left could be Birmingham’s most important route to creating chances.
Probable Lineup (4-5-1): Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Neumann, Klarer, Cochrane; Iwata, Solis, Vicente, Stansfield, Millar; Priske
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have received a significant boost ahead of Saturday’s trip to Birmingham, with Adilson Malanda expected to recover in time to return at centre-back. There is, however, a fresh concern elsewhere in the defence. Alfie Jones picked up a calf problem during the recent 4-3 victory over Norwich City and is expected to miss out.
Boro should continue with their 4-2-3-1 formation, with Radek Vitek in goal and Callum Brittain, Adilson Malanda, Ashley Phillips, and Max Arfsten forming the defensive line. Morris and Peart-Harris are expected to anchor the midfield, while Amario Cozier-Duberry, Riley McGree, and Kyle Joseph operate behind Will Lankshear.
Lankshear will provide the focal point in attack after making an impact since arriving at Middlesbrough, while Cozier-Duberry’s pace and direct running should offer an important outlet in transition. The return of Malanda could be particularly valuable given Birmingham’s tendency to attack through the wide areas. His presence should provide greater stability in the centre of defence and help Boro deal with deliveries into the penalty area.
Middlesbrough’s recent resilience will also be tested. They have gone five Championship matches unbeaten, but Birmingham’s home performance will make this a competitive encounter.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Vitek; Brittain, Malanda, Phillips, Arfsten; Morris, Peart-Harris; Cozier-Duberry, McGree, Joseph; Lankshear
Key Stats
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five Championship matches, recording three wins and two draws during that run.
- Middlesbrough have 14 points from their opening seven league matches, leaving them level with leaders West Ham United.
- Birmingham City have lost just once in their first seven Championship matches, with two wins and four draws.
- Middlesbrough have won their last five Championship visits to St Andrew’s, with their most recent defeat there coming in October 2019.
- Middlesbrough have won the last seven competitive meetings between the clubs, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two across that sequence.
Player to Watch
Liam Millar
The winger has made an immediate impact since joining Birmingham on loan from Hull City, registering three assists in his first three appearances. He provided the decisive final pass for both Birmingham goals in their comeback victory over Derby County.
His pace, direct running and ability to deliver from the left could be particularly important against a Middlesbrough side that has conceded goals despite its strong overall form. With Birmingham expected to use a 4-5-1, Millar could be one of their main outlets when transitioning from defence into attack.
Prediction
Birmingham City 1-2 Middlesbrough
Birmingham’s strong overall start and improved away form suggest they can make this competitive, but their home struggles and Middlesbrough’s remarkable record at St. Andrew’s make the visitors difficult to overlook. Boro have also shown the ability to recover from losing positions, while their five-match unbeaten run underlines their consistency.