Bayern Munich may have won the league in all but name already, but the fight for the remaining Champions League places has the potential to make Bundesliga history–and change the league.
Letai??i??s face it: Bayern Munich have won the league. Sixteen points ahead with an unholy goal difference, they havenai??i??t mathematically clinched that most coveted of circular objects, but unless they implode or all turn into zombies between now and May, itai??i??s theirs.
So letai??i??s just forget about Bayern. After all, the rest of the Bundesliga has never looked so mouth-watering. The remainder of the top four are separated by only three points, which means that fourth-placed Schalke and second-placed Bayer Leverkusen are only one win and one loss (respectively) away from switching places. Borussia Dortmund sit anxiously between the two, with 42 points, one point behind stuttering Leverkusen and two above the resurgent Schalke.
The way these teams look now, it is extremely likely that they will make up the top four come seasonai??i??s endai??i??in what order exactly is still to be determined. But with the distance growing between them and the batch of would-be contendersai??i??Wolfsburg, Gladbach, Hertha Berlinai??i??it seems that Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Schalke will secure the Champions League spotsai??i??for the second year running.
A Historic Year?
This does not seem like a groundbreaking or even a very interesting statement, particularly to those accustomed to the Premier League, where the Big Four dominated football for most of the 2000s and continue to assert their power now. But in Germany, it is highly unusualai??i??almost unheard ofai??i??for four teams to consistently clinch the top spots. Other than Bayern Munich, teams rise and teams fall, with one or two challenging Munich before disappearing back into the oblivion of mid-table obscurity or even relegation. VfB Stuttgart, with a squad boasting Mario Gomez, Thomas Hitzlsperger and Sami Khedira, charged to the Bundesliga crown in 2007, only to fall down to sixth the next year. Before JA?rgen Kloppai??i??s Dortmund, Werder Bremen were the clubAi??du jour to challenge Bayern, winning the league in 2004 and finishing near the top until 2008. By 2009, they were loitering in tenth. In fact, the Bundesliga can be so unpredictable that a team can barely avoid relegation one year and finish fourth the next, like Borussia MAi??nchengladbach did only a few seasons ago.
In fact, were Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Schalke to really repeat the standings of last season, they would be making history. In the 51 years of the Bundesliga, a repeated top four has only happened twiceai??i??and in continuous years. From 1978 to 1981, Bayern, Hamburg, Stuttgart, and Kaiserslautern made it to the top for three years in a row, and between 1979 and 1981 even managed to retain the identical order. Since then, however, the league has fluctuated wildly, with Bayern the only team to unfailingly appear near the top. That Borussia Dortmund have managed to hang on for their fourth season nowai??i??without any imminent danger of falling downai??i??is reason enough for Klopp and his management to celebrate.
What This Means for the League
It is too early, of course, to say that these four teams will create anything like the Big Four in England, or even to worry about its effects on the league,Ai??but Bundesliga enthusiasts should be pleased at the prospect. Consistent Champions League qualification means consistent cash flow. Consistent cash flow means the ability to invest in the squad year in and year out, to develop players, and, even more importantly, to keep them.
So many German teams have suffered from this inability to regularly qualify for the Champions League, agreeing contracts with their players based on European funds, but then unable to deliver when they actually missed out on the lucrative competition. VfB Stuttgart, for instance, are a prime example of this irregularity, winning the Bundesliga in 2007, dropping to sixth the next year, surging to a Champions League spot the next, and falling back to sixth because they couldnai??i??t handle the pressure of multiple fronts. Unable to make that Champions League place their own while they had the chance, VfB did not have the financial wherewithal or the marketing power to hold onto their best players, attract top European talent, and ultimately stay in the upper echelons. Ai??
Borussia Dortmund, who are now enjoying their third straight season of Champions League footballai??i??not to mention the dream run to the final last yearai??i??have learned from the lessons of clubs like Stuttgart, and done their best to avoid such pitfalls. Club CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke has recently hinted that this summer will see some big transfer spending and salary raises at the club, as he must have realized that in order to avoid becoming another waylaid challenger gone by, BVB have to make themselves financially attractive to players as well.
Last year, the Schwarzgelben paid their squad less than 90 million euros cumulatively, including hefty performance bonuses for their extraordinary season. Two years ago, a somewhat unsuccessful year for Bayern, their payroll added up to 125 million euros. Marco Reus might love his home club very dearly, but will such love really be enough when Manchester City and Barcelona come knocking, with a huge pay raise to sweeten the deal? After all, Echte Liebe and JA?rgen Kloppai??i??s smile only get you so far.
If Schalke and Leverkusen can join Dortmund as consistent qualifiers, they can add to their already talented squads, try to hold on to their most prized assets, and solidify their place at the top of German football. Schalke, in particular, have some of Germanyai??i??s most attractive young talent on their books, and Julian Draxler is already subject to intense speculation and interest from teams like Arsenal and Real Madrid. It remains to be seen whether he can be persuaded to stay, but Champions League football and heavy investment into the squad can only help to convince the 20-year-od midfielder, along with young stars Max Meyer and Leon Goretzka, that the Royal Blues are worthy of their prodigious talent.
This is not to say that the Bundesliga will become stagnant, or that these four teams will simply dominate year in, year out, Premier League style. The likes of Borussia MAi??nchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg are enough to ensure that. But a consistent top four is only good news for the Bundesliga. Not only will the infusion of cash improve the quality of the league, but having four teams regularly challenging and pushing each other will only make them all stronger and yield an even better, more entertaining league to watch. And eventually, someone will end that 46-game unbeaten streak.
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