A spot in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 will be on the line when Brazil and Japan face off at NRG Stadium on Monday.
The knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins this weekend with the game between South Africa and Canada. Monday will feature three blockbuster games, with the day’s action kicking off with Brazil vs Japan in Houston.
Brazil began the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a scare, coming from a goal down to hold Morocco to a 1-1 draw after being outplayed by the Atlas Lions. That was perhaps a wake-up call for the Selecao, as they have since produced two professional performances to secure top spot in Group C, beating Haiti and Scotland by an identical 3-0 scoreline.
Vinicius Junior, in particular, has been on a roll, scoring in all three games and driving Brazil’s long-sought chase of the elusive sixth World Cup crown. However, the other players have also stepped up, with Matheus Cunha’s introduction enhancing the team’s fluidity in the final third.
On the other hand, Japan gave the Netherlands a run for their money on Matchday 1. The Samurai Blue have been one of the most eye-catching teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scoring seven goals in three games thus far, including the 4-0 thrashing of Tunisia on Matchday 2.
However, failure to beat Sweden meant Japan would forego the chance to secure top spot in Group F, with the Netherlands finishing two points ahead of them. Nevertheless, Hajime Moriyasu’s men remain one of the most impressive teams of the tournament, and they will not go down without a fight against Brazil.
The only match featuring Brazil and Japan in a World Cup ended in a 4-1 win for the Selecao in the 2006 edition. The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.
Team News & Tactics
Brazil
Carlo Ancelotti has no injury concerns hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixture. Brazil’s head coach will be bereft of the services of one player, with Raphinha still recovering from a hamstring injury. The 29-year-old has yet to resume training, and there is no timeline for his return.
Alisson Becker is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Brazil lining up in a 4-3-3 formation in front of him vs Japan on Monday. The backline will feature Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Douglas Santos.
As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Bruno Guimaraes, Casemiro, and Lucas Paqueta in the middle of the park. The trio will attempt to keep things tight in the middle of the park, though Japan’s boisterous midfielders will keep them on their toes.
Finally, Matheus Cunha will lead the line for Brazil against Japan, with Vinicius Junior and Rayan being the two wide attackers. Vinicius and Cunha have been the two in-form players for the Selecao, and the efficiency of their combination and positional play will determine whether Ancelotti’s charges produce fluid attacking moves.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Santos; Guimaraes, Casemiro, Paqueta; Rayan, Cunha, Vinicius Junior
Japan
Unlike his counterpart in the Brazilian dugout, Hajime Moriyasu has a new fitness issue to worry about ahead of the trip to NRG Stadium. Japan’s head coach may be without two players in Monday’s round of 32 clash.
Moriyasu is sweating over Ko Itakura’s fitness after he was taken off in the first half of the final Group F game against Sweden. The 29-year-old faces a late fitness test to determine his availability. Additionally, Takefusa Kubo is unlikely to feature, as he has yet to resume full training amid his ongoing recovery from a knee injury.
Zion Suzuki is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Japan lining up in a 3-4-2-1 formation in front of him vs Brazil on Monday. The central defensive unit will feature Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Ko Itakura (if fit). Meanwhile, Ritsu Doan and Keita Nakamura will start as the two wing-backs.
The wide duo will provide width in the final third and protect the three centre-backs. As for the midfield unit, Kaishu Sano and Ao Tanaka will pair up in the central areas, with the duo aiming to keep things tight in the middle of the park while being in-charge of transitions. Finally, Ayase Ueda will spearhead Samurai Blue’s attack against Brazil, with Daichi Kamada and Daizen Maeda completing the numbers in the offensive unit.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Ito, Tomiyasu, Itakura; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Kamada, Maeda; Ueda
Key Stats
- Brazil and Japan have previously clashed 14 times, with the Selecao dominating the head-to-head battle with 11 wins (D2 L1). The only win for Japan came in the most recent meeting, with Samurai Blue coming from two goals down to clinch a 3-2 win.
- The only meeting between Brazil and Japan at a World Cup came in the 3-2 edition, with the Selecao coming from a goal down to clinch a 4-1 win in a Group F clash, with Ronaldo scoring a match-winning brace.
- Brazil are on a six-game unbeaten run (W5 D2) coming into Monday’s FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 clash with Japan.
- On the other hand, Japan are on a ten-game unbeaten run (W7 D3) coming into Monday’s meeting with Brazil, with the Samurai Blue’s last defeat coming on September 9 against the USA.
- Two of Japan’s last three World Cup knockout matches have gone to penalties.
Player to Watch
Vinicius Junior
While Matheus Cunha, Ayase Ueda, and Daichi Kamada were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Vinicius Junior as the Player to Watch for Monday’s FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 clash between Brazil and Japan at NRG Stadium.
The 25-year-old has never looked better in the famous yellow Brazilian strip, and he is in the form of his life after guiding the Selecao to the Group C summit. He scored in all three games, thus becoming the fifth Brazilian player to score in every group-stage game of a World Cup after Jairzinho (1970), Romario (1994), Ronaldo, and Rivaldo (both in 2002).
In each of the previous four instances, the Selecao won the title, giving their fans hope that if Vinicius continues his excellent run of form, good times are in store for Canarinho. The Real Madrid star will also have the Golden Boot on his mind, and a healthy return on Monday should send him to the top of the goalscoring charts.
Prediction
Brazil 2-1 Japan
Brazil made short work of Haiti and Scotland and thus head into Monday’s game in top form. However, they cannot afford to take Japan lightly, as they have been slowly mastering the World Cup knockout phase. Samurai Blue have also been becoming habitual giant slayers, having beaten Spain and Germany in the 2022 edition.
Additionally, Hajime Moriyasu’s men have beaten Brazil and England in the last 12 months. So, after Japan’s 2-2 draw with the Netherlands in the group stage, another closely-contested affair is on the cards. However, a stalemate is not an option in a knockout fixture, and we will have a definitive winner on Monday.
While Japan will give the record five-time champions a run for their money, Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha’s irresistible form will be the point of difference in this game. Ultimately, Brazil will have enough quality to eke out a narrow 2-1 win, with the two in-form players delivering the win for Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
