Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion at Anfield on Sunday will feature two teams riding a wave of confidence amid winning runs that have displayed varied qualities.
Liverpool’s dramatic 4-3 comeback against Villarreal in the Champions League showed the resilience of a team that has won three matches in succession, but it also sharpened the central question at Anfield. Can that momentum finally become a league win at home?
Brighton, on the other hand, arrive with four straight top-flight victories by an aggregate 15-0. So, this is not simply a meeting between two sides in good spirits. Liverpool are trying to turn a difficult home sequence around, while Brighton are defending a Champions League position and can move higher with victory. A draw matters to both, but it preserves more of the away side’s current position than advancing Liverpool’s chase.
For Liverpool, the result is about making progress without allowing the home problem to become the defining story of the season. Their recent run has lifted confidence, and Alexander Isak scored the winner in the 2-1 away victory at Brentford before contributing to the comeback against Villarreal.
Yet, they remain winless at Anfield in the Premier League this season, and that makes another set of dropped points costly even if it does not damage their immediate European position. Andoni Iraola’s demand for full intensity fits a side that must attack the opportunity without losing the resilience that has carried the recent run.
Brighton’s situation is different. They are already in the Champions League places, so a point would protect the position they have earned, while a win would take them second depending on Arsenal’s result against Everton.
Their latest league stretch has been emphatic. Arsenal, Coventry City and Crystal Palace were among the teams beaten during a sequence in which Brighton scored freely and gave opponents no reply. They carry confidence, but Fabian Hurzeler’s game-by-game caution matters here. Brighton can be ambitious without making the match unnecessarily open, and that makes them better equipped than Liverpool to accept the result if the home side cannot break through.
Team News: The predicted teams and the absences behind them
Liverpool will be without Giovanni Leoni (ACL), Conor Bradley (knee), Dominik Szoboszlai (thigh), Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring), and Hugo Ekitike (achilles). Szoboszlai’s absence removes a midfield and attacking option, Frimpong’s muscle injury affects the right-sided depth. Additionally, Victor Munoz is doubtful after a knock, with his availability unresolved close to the match. The important effect is that Liverpool’s attacking structure has less room for late rotation, particularly around the forward line.
The home side should use the familiar 4-2-3-1. Alisson starts behind a back four of Milos Kerkez, Virgil van Dijk, Ronald Araujo, and the impressive Jeremy Jacquet. Araujo is expected to take the right-back slot despite a recent dip in form; the defensive role is more important here than his limited attacking contribution.
As for the midfield unit, Alexis Mac Allister should join Ryan Gravenberch in the double pivot. Mac Allister has started five times in the Premier League and has supplied seven key passes, giving the midfield a reliable link into the attacking line. Gravenberch has played fewer minutes and has not been at his best, but his ball-winning brief suits the need to protect the two advanced midfield lanes.
Florian Wirtz starts behind Alexander Isak, with Bradley Barcola on the left and Rio Ngumoha likely to take the right-sided role. Wirtz is the creative reference, with 20 key passes, while Isak brings the sharper scoring record: five goals in six appearances. The Swedish striker’s movement is central to Liverpool’s route through Brighton’s compact defence.
Probable Liverpool Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Ngumoha, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak
Probable Brighton & Hove Albion Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Vuskovic, Dunk, Boscagli; Gross, Andres; Gomez, Ayari, De Cuyper; Kostoulas
Brighton will be without Femi Azeez (thigh), Kaoru Mitomo (hamstring), Evan Ferguson (ankle), Stefanos Tzimas (knee), and Zadok Yohanna (unspecified). Mats Wieffer is doubtful but close to returning, while Pascal Struijk has a minor issue that could worsen if he is risked too early.
Neither doubt changes the predicted starting structure as much as the missing wide and squad options do, but Wieffer’s potential return would give Fabian Hurzeler another choice during the match. Brighton’s expected 4-2-3-1 formation is therefore built around the established central platform rather than a reshuffle.
Bart Verbruggen is an automatic pick in goal behind Olivier Boscagli, Lewis Dunk, Luka Vuskovic, and Ferdi Kadioglu. Vuskovic has started all seven of his appearances and owns a 7.39 average rating, while Boscagli has produced 11 key passes from left-back. As for the midfield unit, Pascal Gross and Chema Andres should form the two-man midfield, with Yasin Ayari ahead of them.
Gross is the important organiser in that group, combining three goals and four assists with 19 key passes. Ayari supplies the next connection into the attack. Maxim De Cuyper and Diego Gomez should flank Ayari behind Charalampos Kostoulas.
De Cuyper has delivered 16 key passes and three created big chances, while Gomez has added two assists. Kostoulas leads the line after starting six matches and scoring three goals, offering the physical and positional reference Brighton need when their attacking midfielders advance. The settled defensive unit and the continuity in the front four give Brighton a clear first-choice plan.
Tactics: Wirtz and Gross decide who controls the middle
Liverpool’s shape is designed to let the double pivot protect the team while Florian Wirtz receives behind lexander Isak. It gives the home side a controlled way to push forward rather than sending numbers beyond the ball too early.
On the other hand, Brighton’s matching structure has a similar purpose: two deeper midfielders support Pascal Gross, while Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper and Diego Gomez can stay close to Charalampos Kostoulas. Both teams want to win, but both can also keep the draw alive instead of turning the game into an unprotected chase.
The habits point to Brighton having the stronger claim on the ball. Liverpool average 56% possession per match and Brighton 67%, with the league-typical figure at 49.5%. The Reds are not a passive side, but Brighton are much more likely to make the match run through their passing structure.
The visitors also shoot 17 times per match compared with Liverpool’s 13, against a league typical 13. So, their possession is usually attached to repeated attempts rather than circulation for its own sake. Liverpool must make their spells with the ball more threatening than Brighton’s. The difference also appears in how the sides bypass pressure.
Liverpool play 48 long balls per match and Brighton 55, against a league typical 49.5. The away side’s higher figure gives Kostoulas and the advanced midfielders a way to attack space without abandoning their possession game. Liverpool’s lower figure fits the attempt to connect Wirtz with Isak, though it also means they need clean central access to avoid being forced backwards. That is why Wirtz versus Gross is the leading duel.
Wirtz has the movement and current attacking influence to appear between Brighton’s midfield and centre-backs, while Gross is the player who must screen that space without disconnecting Brighton from the rest of their possession platform. If the Liverpool playmaker receives freely, the home side can move the match toward a controlled home push and keep the double pivot behind the attack.
If Gross closes him, Brighton can maintain their preferred structure and force Liverpool toward the more aggressive option of adding another runner beyond Isak. The cover behind the duel matters. Wirtz is protected by Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch, but Liverpool’s full-backs and wide attackers still have to judge their forward runs carefully because Brighton leave three advanced players behind Kostoulas.
De Cuyper and Gomez can stretch the home shape, while Ayari can occupy the next central lane. If Liverpool’s midfield protection breaks, Brighton’s volume of attacking entries should expose the space before Liverpool can reset. The second important collision is Isak against Dunk.
Isak’s movement can pull Brighton’s centre-backs apart and create the room Wirtz needs, while Dunk’s job is to preserve the distances inside the defensive line. If the Swede occupies the Brighton captain and unsettles the pairing, Liverpool can keep the balanced shape and still create a sustained attack. If Dunk controls the reference point, the visitors retain the compact base behind their possession game and Liverpool may need the extra runner of a more aggressive setup.
Prediction: The draw is the safer option of two controlled plans
We predict a draw with medium conviction. Brighton’s possession platform should give them long spells in the match, but Liverpool have enough central quality to resist being pushed entirely onto the defensive side.
The key separation is not simply who sees more of the ball; it is whether Florian Wirtz can receive in the space Pascal Gross is responsible for protecting, and whether Liverpool can turn those receptions into service for Isak. The home side’s recent attacking numbers are encouraging but not completely trustworthy.
They average 1.93 xG across the last-five-match aggregate, yet their season goal return sits 3.084 below the expected total. Brighton have kept five clean sheets in that same recent run. That combination leaves Liverpool capable of creating pressure without making a goal feel inevitable, especially against a defence that has been protecting its penalty area so consistently.
Lean: Draw
Range: 1-1/2-2/0-0
The strongest case against the draw is Brighton turning their control into the first goal. Their willingness to shoot frequently, commit advanced players and use Charalampos Kostoulas as the forward reference could force Liverpool’s double pivot deeper than intended.
Once the Reds are defending their own box, Wirtz becomes less influential and the home side may have to open the match with the 4-3-3 alternative. That would create more attacking presence, but it would also give Brighton more space to attack after recovering the ball.
The match therefore settles in the 1-1, 2-2 or 0-0 range. The value angle is the draw. Both sides have a credible route to scoring, but neither has a compelling reason to abandon its cover early.
Liverpool’s extra runner is the late lever
The clearest adjustment belongs to Liverpool if the central contest remains closed. Moving to a 4-3-3 would add a runner beyond Alexander Isak and ask Brighton’s full-backs to defend deeper, changing the match without requiring the home side to abandon its attacking intent altogether.
Brighton can respond by using their own 4-3-3 setup to pin those full-backs higher, but that would be a more aggressive choice than the balanced starting plan. The timing of that change may decide whether a tight draw stays intact or becomes a late Liverpool push.
