This week’s matches in the EPL saw Liverpool choose the wrong strategy against Chelsea and lose control of the title race to Manchester City. It saw Arsenal get one step closer to securing a Top 4 place, though it could have been so much more. It also saw Sunderland take an important step towards staying in the Premier League, a seemingly improbably result earlier this season.
The Title Race
Liverpool Get Their Strategy Wrong (and Then Get Their Tactics Wrong Too)
Liverpool have found success this season playing as a counter-attacking team. For a side with the defensive deficiencies that Liverpool have and a plethora of attacking talent, they should probably look to maximize their ability to score goals. And in order to maximize their ability to score, Liverpool have morphed into an effective counter-attacking side. This reactive style allows them to get their stable of one-on-one players (Raheem Sterling, Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge, Phillipe Coutinho) out in space and increases the chances that they have a one-on-one matchup to exploit. Combine this with a runner or two from deeper midfield positions, and Liverpool can blitz relatively unorganized and/or undermanned defenses. Surprisingly, few teams, especially those around the top of the table, had forced Liverpool to play a possession-based style, trying to take away that counter-attacking threat (teams could give the ball to Liverpool more often next year, in England and Europe, which could curb Liverpoolai??i??s scoring ability, expose their poor defense, and lower their ability to earn points).
With Sundayai??i??s big match pitting two sides that need to play on the counter-attack to maximize their probability for success, one could argue that the side who had to play proactively would suffer. That is exactly what transpired. Liverpool wound up being the side with the ball, and they displayed their inability to break down an organized defense. The Reds seemed indecisive as to how they wanted to break down the Blues defense.
In one set of situations, Liverpoolai??i??s players positioned themselves too far away from one another. While this tactic works playing on the counter-attacking, creating space for individuals, it can create too much distance between players when playing a possession-based game. Passes now have to travel a longer distance, making them easier to intercept and making the ball move too slowly. The latter is particularly important, as quicker passing allows a side to move their opponent and allows them to get the ball into advantageous positions before those openings/vulnerabilities disappear.
In the other set of situations, players like Philippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling took up more central positions. The play became too predictable as Jon Flanagan (not an attacking fullback) and Glen Johnson tended to stay home. Without overlapping fullbacks, the center of the pitch became immensely congested. In those cases, Liverpool made the pitch too small and lacked the technical ability of a fully fit and firing Barcelona to operate in such crowded, condensed spaces.
When Liverpool tried to play the ball into wide areas, instead of looking to beat their marker, get behind the back line, drive into the box and look for the cut-back, forcing Chelseaai??i??s defenders to have to defend 360 degrees of space, Liverpool looked to cross the ball without an actual target man on the pitch. At least, Liverpool could have taken better advantage of the space just to the left and right of the sitting midfielders. There Liverpool could create one-on-one matchups, allowing their individual skill to take over and force Chelsea to scramble, when a Liverpool attacker beat his initial defender.
Now the injury to Daniel Sturridge and Jordan Hendersonai??i??s suspension played a role in Liverpoolai??i??s lack of effectiveness as a possession-based side. Hendersonai??i??s energy and runs from deep could have help free Luis Suarez, who played as a lone striker. Chelsea would have had to account for Henderson bursting forward and would probably refrain from double marking Suarez. Have a fit Sturridge would also have allowed Liverpool to occupy both center-backs, but maybe more importantly, Coutinho could have operated in a deeper midfield role. This would have allowed the Brazilian (Liverpoolai??i??s best player on the day) to have more time and space to play incisive passes. However, due to Sturridgeai??i??s injury, Rodgers may have felt that the Brazilian provided the most marginal value to the side further forward, as Iago Aspas represented the other healthy alternative. With those two available maybe the match would have turned out differently.
Then the mistake happened. Gerrardai??i??s blunder (letting the ball get away from him and then slippingai??i??not the reverse) allowed Demba Ba to race towards the goal and score. From that point on, panic and impatience characterized Liverpoolai??i??s play. Instead of patiently probing Chelsea for an opening, Liverpool unleashed potshot after potshot from outside the box. In the first half, Liverpool took 33% of their shots from inside the box (3/9). In the second half, they took a little under 12% of their shots from inside the box (2/17) (stats from Squawka.com). Steven Gerrard typified this behavior by taking seven shots outside of the box in the second half (8 total), after only taking one shot in the first half. In indulging their panicked preference for quantity rather than quality, when it came to their shot selection, Liverpool leveraged much of their ability to earn points from this match on random variation (luck) rather than their abilities. Given all that transpired, it seems obvious that Liverpool got their tactics completely wrong.
Looking at the table before the match, it seems odd that it played out this way. Liverpool only needed a point to stay in control of the title race. Chelsea, if they wanted to maintain any hope of winning the league, needed all three points. For Brendan Rodgers, a manager whose pragmatism has defined Liverpoolai??i??s season (primarily the switch from his desired possession-based style to the counter-attacking style that suited his players), it seems odd that Rodgers did not cede possession to a second-string Chelsea side and ask them to try and break Liverpool down. In all likelihood, the match would have turned into the most boring 0-0 in the history of the Premier League (interestingly, Chelseaai??i??s time wasting efforts, while the game was still tied, helped Liverpool), which would have put Liverpool one step closer to the title. Combine the situation and the fact that Chelsea need to play on the counter-attack, and Liverpool should have willingly cede possession. So while Liverpool got their tactics wrong (see above), Rodgers employed the completely wrong strategy as well. And that matters more, as perfect tactics (the deployment of resources to secure strategic objectives) mean little when one chooses the wrong strategy (the set of objectives one wishes to achieve in an effort to get the desired result).
Jose Mourinhoai??i??s Philosophy: Good in Big Matches, But May Have Cost Them the Title
Chelsea, like Liverpool, excel on the counter-attack. However, while Liverpool use the counter-attack to maximize the production of their individual attacking players, Chelsea play on the counter-attack in an attempt to minimize the amount of mistakes they make. This comes from a philosophy that success in football comes down to mistakes. The team that can avoid making mistakes and force the other team into mistakes has a greater chance of winning. That idea is not particularly shocking. However, as Diego Torres wrote, Jose Mourinho believes that the side with the football has the greater propensity to make mistakes compared to the side without the football. Whether this belief comes out of a sense of pragmatism, a sense of insecurity in his sideai??i??s ability on the ball, or a combination of both, this conviction has defined Mourinhoai??i??s sides, both in their construction and their play on the pitch.
For Chelsea, this match played out exactly how they desired. They set-up shop deep in their own half, and when they won the ball, often sent one to three men forward, helping them to maintain their 3+4 defensive base (this is actually quite different from 19th century football, when the English viewed defending as unchivalrous, passing as effeminate, and the most common formations were 1-1-8 and 1-2-7ai??i??thank goodness for the Scottish). There were a few instances where Chelsea faced a bit of danger, but those came when Liverpool had the rare opportunity to attack a less organized Chelsea. Overall, Chelsea did what they had to do and did it well, despite fielding a second-string side.
And yet, despite getting all three points, Chelsea still need help if they want to win the title. In a season where Mourinhoai??i??s side has not dropped a point against the Top 3 (the last team to do that was Carlo Ancelottiai??i??s Chelsea from 2009-10), they still need to get Manchester City and Liverpool to drop points to win the title. If they fail to win the title, they will join 2008-09 Liverpool as the only two sides take all 12 points against the top 3 and fail to win the title, going back to 2001-02. For more historical context, Chelseaai??i??s 16 points won against the Top 4 is the most any side has won going back to 2001-02, the first season where the Top 4 in England could qualify for the Champions League (teams who earned 15 points: 2011-12 Manchester City, 2009-10 Chelsea, and 2005-06 Chelsea).
Ultimately, their failure against weaker sides will likely cost them the title, much like it cost Mourinho last season at Real Madrid. With this Chelsea side, their ineptitude as a possession-based side has prevented them from scoring enough goals to secure maximum points from weaker sides. In many ways their ineptitude in when they dominate possession comes from Mourinho’s preferences. He sold Juan Mata, a player who did not fit his style, but provides significant value in a possession-based side. He plays Cesar Azpilicueta as an inverted left back, not because he is a good defender, but by playing Azipilicueta’s on the left kills his incentive to go forward, giving Mourinho a left back he trusts to stay at home. The same can be said by his deployment of Branislav Ivanovic at right back. In central midfield, Mourinho consistent plays runners, destroyers, or hatchet men, fine on the counter, but often lacking creativity in possession. When they are forced to play a possession-based game, often they need Eden Hazard to play at his best, in order to avoid the risk of one random, high-leverage goal leading to two or three dropped points. So while Mourinhoai??i??s second seasons often see significant improvement and Chelsea could make a massive upgrade at center forward(signing Diego Costa), one wonders if Mourinho’s philosophy of football will prevent his side from reaching their potential.
Manchester Cityai??i??s Biggest Foe in the Title Race is Themselves
Despite Manchester Cityai??i??s play vacillating from breath-taking to utterly disinterested, their 2-0 victory at Crystal Palace has put them in pole position for the title, as they are tied with Liverpool for the highest potential points total and have a significant goal difference advantage over Liverpool. Not a dominant, a quick goal by Edin Dzeko and a bit of brilliance from Yaya Toure sealed Cityai??i??s victory against a Palace side, already safe from relegation.
Looking at the final run-in, City appear to lack a difficult match. While Everton may seem like an opponent who could take points from City, the Toffees will probably not have their best center back, Sylvain Distin, and hope to have Phil Jagielka back in the side after an absence that extends to late February. Against a side with the ability to move a defense and overload a back line, starting John Stones and Antolin Alcaraz represents a frightening proposition. Cityai??i??s final two matches come against Aston Villa and West Ham, two sides who have a remarkably low chance of dropping down to the Championship and have less incentive to care about the result.
Liverpool may have the most difficult match of the top 3 sides with their trip to Selhurst Park. Obviously, the difficulty of the fixture depends on the motivation and focus of Crystal Palace, who have earned their safety from relegation. If they do come to play, Palaceai??i??s style could cause Liverpool many of the same problems that Chelsea did this past Sunday. Even if Liverpool win this potentially difficult away match and dispatch a hopeless Newcastle United side on the final day, they may still not win the league. With City having an eight goal advantage in goal difference, Liverpool would have to win their next two matches by a total of 11 goals (that assumes City only win their final three matches by a score of 1-0).
Chelsea have a potential points total of 84, two less than Liverpool and Chelsea. So they require both sides to drop points if they want to win the title. Given their colossal disadvantage with respect to goal difference, Chelsea need both sides to drop three points and beat two teams, Norwich City and Cardiff City, in the middle of a relegation battle.
Given the circumstances, Manchester City biggest stumbling block is themselves. Over the past three seasons, Cityai??i??s periods of disinterest and complacency have come to define them as much as their moments of brilliance. Whatever the cause of this (mercenary mentality, boredom, overconfidence in their talent, etc.) it nearly cost them the league in 2011-12 (a title won on goal difference), gifted the title to Manchester United last season, and almost put the title out of reach for them this season. Going forward, if Manchester City want to dominate the landscape of English football (and eventually European football), they need to fix these issues of motivation and focus. If they fail to fix this issue, regardless of how much money they spend (FFP permitting of course), they will remain a side that massively underperforms relative to their talent.
The Battle for Top 4
Arsenal Look Poised For the Top 4, but What Could Have Been?
With Evertonai??i??s loss to Southampton and their victory over Newcastle, Arsenalai??i??s magic number goes to three points (total of Arsenal points earned and Everton points dropped). If one assumes that Arsenal maintain a superior goal difference to Everton, that magic number goes down to two. Therefore, Evertonai??i??s result against Manchester City on Saturday could end the race for Top 4, a relief to both Arsenal and their fans, as their place in the Champions League will not depend on the results of the final match day (potentially a boon to Norwich City as well).
However, with the Premier League title winner likely to win somewhere from around 84-86 points, this year does represent an opportunity wasted by Arsenal. If Arsenal had an extrinsic incentive to win their final matches, they would probably end the season with 79 points. Looking back at their season, one could point to two different sets of results. The first set of results are characterized by strategic errors (second match against Everton, the second match against Liverpool, the second match against Chelsea, and the first match against Manchester City) which lead to Arsenal claiming zero points from a possible 12. The second set are defined by poor performances which include five points dropped against the worst Manchester United side of the past 25 seasons, a loss to Stoke City, and a draw at home to Swansea, a total of 10 points dropped. So while a Top 4 finish and an FA Cup Trophy would represent a successful season, Arsenal have to wonder what could have been.
Where Do Everton Go From Here?
Everton, despite their likely failure to get into the Top 4, have had a fantastic season. This season they played better than any Everton side led by their previous manager. Roberto Martinez has brought a better style of football, one capable of potentially greater peaks and one of greater aesthetical appeal compared to the style of David Moyes. However, can Everton and Martinez actually break through into the Top 4 next season?
Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool will likely strengthen their squads in the summer. If Manchester United appoint the right manager (or as Gabrielle Marcotti correctly points out, the right director of football), and the Glazers show a willingness to spend money (and spend it well), then they could find themselves right back in the mix for a Top 4 spot. The current Everton side could find themselves as the worst of six competing for four places (and may be the only one of those in the dreaded Europa League next season).
The chance that Everton gets into the Top 4 net season looks slimmer when one considers the importance loaned players have had in the Toffees success this season. Romelu Lukaku will return to Chelsea at the end of the season. Ai??Chelsea will probably look to sell him to the highest bidder (as long as it is not a title rival) in an effort to maintain FFP compliance while making a few big purchases. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Lukaku will find his way back to Goodison Park. Gareth Barry and Gerard Deulofeu may play another season for Everton, but this has yet to be officially determined. Everton may have to find replacements for all three of these players, and given their budget, it seems unlikely they could find similar quality unless another set of stupendous loan opportunities come around. Key players under contract like Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin (how he stays so athletic and so effective at 36 is astounding) are on the wrong side of 30. One has to wonder if these players, especially with Europa League obligations, can maintain their level of performance next season.
Given these potential issues for Everton and Roberto Martinez, one should not judge next seasonai??i??s results to this seasonai??i??s. Martinez will still be an excellent manager even if Everton finish in a lower position and with a lower points total this season. For Everton next seasonai??i??s results should not concern them. What should concern them is that their disadvantages compared to the Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool cannot be overcome by an excellent manager like Martinez. If these disadvantages prove too tall of a mountain to climb, it could incentivize the Spaniard to seek greener pastures, in an effort to compete for the highest honors.
The Relegation Battle
Sunderland May Avoid the Consequences of a Terrible Appointment
Sunderlandai??i??s 4-0 victory over Cardiff City has turned them from one of the favorites to go down to the most likely of the bottom four sides to avoid relegation. Sunderland have a game in hand and two matches against teams who could potentially suffer from mid-table malaise (Swansea City and West Bromwich Albion). The minimum requirements to stay up calls for them to earn the same amount of points as Norwich City, earn one less than Fulham, and earn two less than Cardiff City, as they have an essentially insurmountable goal difference advantage over all their relegation rivals.
If they stay up, it will represent quite an achievement given where they started. Under Paolo Di Canio and interim manager Kevin Ball, Sunderland earned one point in their first seven matches. They lost their first game with Gus Poyet at the helm, but since then have claimed 31 points from their last 27 matches. While that does not knock anyoneai??i??s socks off, that pace over a 38 game season would result in a 44 point season (rounding up from 43.6), a points total that has kept every team safe since the Premier League went to 20 teams for the 1995-96 season (2002-03 West Ham United are the only side to have been relegated with >40 points (42) in the current EPL format). If they stay up, credit to Sunderland for finding a manager who represented a significant marginal benefit compared to Paolo Di Canio.
If Sunderland fail to stay up, it should serve as a more potent reminder to all clubs to never judge a manager on a small sample of results, regardless of how high leverage the sample was. Paolo Di Canio did not fit at Sunderland despite his time as manager coinciding with Sunderlandai??i??s run to safety last season(eight points in the final seven matches); Roberto Di Matteo should not have retained the position after getting lucky in a cup competition; Ryan Giggs should receive no consideration for the Manchester United current managerial vacancy, regardless of Unitedai??i??s results to end the season. There are reasons that could justify a club hiring a manager after managing the first-team in a small sample of matches (overall track record, good process behind the results, philosophical continuity etc.). However, the results in that sample mean nothing alone, and should not be seen as evidence that a club has found the right man for the position.
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