Liverpool vs Villarreal at Anfield on Tuesday will feature two teams eager to build momentum amid unsatisfactory starts to their campaigns.
Liverpool had to overturn an early deficit to beat Brentford 2-1 on Saturday, but the victory came with defensive casualties and fresh concern over the workload created by fixture congestion. Villarreal, meanwhile, recovered from two goals down to beat Napoli 3-1, ending a long European losing run, before drawing 0-0 with Elche domestically.
The meeting therefore turns on whether Liverpool can convert their strong UEFA Champions League start into another win while Villarreal keep the game controlled enough to make their improving confidence count. Both sides are pursuing meaningful progress in the group, but neither can treat this as a consequence-free night.
For Liverpool, victory would make it three straight Champions League wins and preserve the momentum built from their opening European matches. A draw would keep that unbeaten sequence alive but feel like a missed opportunity at home, while defeat would expose the difference between their European results and the growing strain around the squad.
Andoni Iraola’s men arrive after beating Brentford away, yet the performance was shaped by the need to recover from behind rather than dictate every phase. Their recent five-match record is three wins, one draw and one defeat. The main question is how much defensive reorganisation the injuries force around a side that has not had the recovery time its manager wanted.
Villarreal, on the other hand, have a different calculation. They are seeking a second UEFA Champions League victory of the campaign, but their domestic form has been uneven and a point in England would remain useful rather than automatically disappointing. The comeback against Napoli restored belief, whereas the goalless draw at Elche showed that control does not always become enough penetration.
The Yellow Submarine carry the confidence of that European recovery alongside only two La Liga victories and a difficult away record in this competition. Their most-used recent shape is the 4-4-2, which gives them a familiar platform: two forwards can occupy Liverpool’s centre-backs while the midfield line protects the result if the game becomes uncomfortable.
Team News: Liverpool’s improvised defence meets Villarreal’s settled pairings
Liverpool’s list of absentees is extensive. Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are not in the UEFA Champions League squad. Meanwhile, Giovanni Leoni (knee), Conor Bradley (knee), and Hugo Ekitike (achilles) are long-term absentees, with Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong are the new names in the treatment room due to their hamstring complaints.
The immediate effect is clearest on the right. Ronald Araujo is asked to provide both full-back cover and defensive flexibility, while the midfield loses one of its established attacking options.
Liverpool should line up in their established 4-2-3-1 system vs Villarreal. Alisson Becker is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Araujo, Jeremy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, and Milos Kerkez forming the back four. Araujo’s ability to cover more than one defensive task matters here. Van Dijk is expected to organise the left side, while Kerkez supplies the natural width on that flank.
As for the midfield unit, Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch should sit as the double pivot. The attacking structure runs through Florian Wirtz behind Alexander Isak. Bradley Barcola keeps the left-sided attacking role after scoring three times and putting six of eight shots on target in his two appearances. Finally, Gakpo is the expected right-sided choice.
Probable Liverpool Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Gakpo, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak
Probable Villarreal Starting Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Mourino, Navarro, Veiga, Romero; Akhomach, Santi Comesana, Gueye, Alberto Moleiro; Gerard Moreno, Mikautadze
Villarreal have Nicolas Pepe (eye) out, with Tajon Buchanan doubtful because of a hamstring problem. Buchanan’s uncertainty reduces the depth available for the wide roles, but it does not alter the expected central structure.
Villarreal are expected to use their more familiar 4-4-2 formation vs Liverpool. Peter Gulacsi should start behind Carlos Romero, Renato Veiga, Pau Navarro, and Santiago Mourino.
As for the midfield unit, Santi Comesana and Pape Gueye form the central midfield pairing. Ilias Akhomach and Alberto Moleiro should occupy the wide midfield positions, while Gerard Moreno and Mikautadze are the two forwards.
Tactics: Isak’s route into the box against Villarreal’s cover
Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 system is designed to move the game forward without abandoning the two midfielders behind Wirtz. The home side should carry the match to Villarreal inside that structure rather than attack with every player ahead of the ball. Their recent profile points to a side willing to shoot early.
Andoni Iraola’s men average 20 attempts per match against a league norm of 16. Villarreal average 15 against the same figure. So, the visitors are less reliant on volume and more likely to wait for the right route through the block. Their 4-4-2 setup gives them two forwards to occupy the first line, but also leaves fewer central midfield bodies once Liverpool find Wirtz between the lines.
The possession comparison is closer than Liverpool’s attacking posture might suggest. The Reds have held 54% of the ball per match and Villarreal 50%, either side of the 54.75% league typical figure. That makes this less likely to be a simple home siege than a contest over who controls the central exchanges after the first pass.
The away side’s balanced approach allows them to pursue a win while keeping a draw viable; they are unlikely to open the game simply because Liverpool have the greater incentive to press forward. Iraola’s charges, by contrast, need to keep their creator and striker connected while protecting the spaces exposed by their depleted right side.
The clearest system pattern is Villarreal’s attempt to release their left side into the space around Liverpool’s improvised right-back area. If Ilias Akhomach and Carlos Romero can connect with the front two, the home side’s midfield pair may be forced to turn towards their own goal more often.
That would reduce the support available to Florian Wirtz and make the home side’s attacks more dependent on isolated passes into Isak. Villarreal’s recent attacking average is higher than Liverpool’s. However, their 0-0 draw with Elche also showed how possession can remain sterile. The Yellow Submarine need their wide release to become forward territory, not merely another safe circulation route. The main duel is Alexander Isak against Renato Veiga.
Isak must pin the left-sided centre-back and give the hosts a direct outlet; Veiga must protect the space in front of him without being dragged away from the second forward. If the Liverpool striker wins that contest, Villarreal may have to drop the two forwards deeper, sacrificing the cover that allows their cautious plan to function.
If Veiga wins the duel, Liverpool’s direct entry is blunted and the home side will have to make its attack safer, with Wirtz receiving farther from the penalty area. The consequence reaches beyond those two players: behind Isak, Wirtz has to find room against Comesana, while behind Veiga the rest of Villarreal’s backline must resist the temptation to step out.
Wirtz against Comesana is the second important collision because it determines whether Liverpool have a second route into the area. Wirtz has the movement and current attacking influence to pull Villarreal’s midfield line backwards; Comesana’s role is to close the lane without losing the compactness between midfield and defence.
If Wirtz receives cleanly, the two-forward screen becomes a retreating line and Liverpool can sustain pressure. If Comesana keeps the lane closed, the German playmaker may still find a way to connect with Isak, but the striker will receive with fewer close connections and Villarreal can preserve the controlled game they want.
Prediction: Liverpool have the edge, but not enough for a confident win bet
We predict a Liverpool win, with medium confidence rather than a strong home call. Their established 4-2-3-1 setup gives them the clearer attacking route. Florian Wirtz can work behind Alexander Isak, Bradley Barcola supplies a direct threat from the left, and the double pivot should allow Liverpool to keep advancing without completely exposing the centre.
Their recent underlying attacking numbers are impressive with 1.74 xG per match, while Villarreal have 1.04 xGA per gap across their last five outings. That is not a one-sided match-up, but it gives Liverpool the more obvious platform for creating the first sustained spell of pressure.
Lean: Liverpool win
Range: 2-1/2-0/1-1
The strongest case against Liverpool is that Villarreal may win the central defensive sequence rather than the home side. If Renato Veiga keeps Alexander Isak from becoming a reliable outlet and Santi Comesana prevents Wirtz from receiving between the lines, Liverpool’s structure can become a series of disconnected attacks.
Villarreal’s two forwards would then have room to occupy the centre-backs, while their wide players test Liverpool’s weakened right side. The visitors can also accept a slower, more cautious match and wait for the home side to overcommit. Liverpool’s season output is running 3.598 goals above expected, a useful finishing signal, but not enough to erase those structural risks. The scoreline range is 2-1 or 2-0 to Liverpool, with 1-1 the principal alternative.
Villarreal’s extra midfielder is the late change to watch
Villarreal have a clear in-game adjustment if the central area begins to belong to Liverpool. They can move from 4-4-2 into 4-3-3 and add another midfielder. That would reduce the immediate connection between their two forwards, but it would give them more protection against Florian Wirtz and make it easier to keep the match within the narrow margins their approach demands.
Liverpool have no comparable second shape, so the visitors’ ability to alter the midfield count could keep the contest close even if the home side starts with the better attacking structure.
