Sunderland will be eager to return to winning ways and kick off their UEFA Europa League campaign with a bang when they host AZ Alkmaar at the Stadium of Light on Wednesday.
Sunderland’s return to European competition begins after a 2-0 home defeat by Arsenal, a result shaped by an early concession and a red card before the break. That setback does not erase the significance of a first European appearance in 53 years, but it does sharpen the question for this Europa League opener. Can Sunderland keep the occasion controlled against an AZ Alkmaar side arriving with the better recent momentum?
The result carries major weight for Sunderland, but neither side will necessarily be under pressure if they lose. Sunderland need to turn the occasion into a competitive performance rather than an open chase. AZ, meanwhile, can pursue the win while protecting the unbeaten run that has established them as the more settled team.
For the home side, victory would give their European return the start they want, while a defeat would leave the occasion attached to another difficult result after the Arsenal loss. Their recent sequence is one win, one draw, and two defeats, yet confidence in the direction of the team remains intact.
The Arsenal match showed that the Black Cats can be tested before it has had time to settle, and the absence of several squad members could make the manager cautious about how much risk he takes. AZ have more to protect in performance terms than in tournament mathematics.
They arrive after four wins and a draw in their listed run, with a settled managerial picture and a clear tactical reference point. Their strong domestic start gives them a platform Sunderland do not currently possess, although the long-standing difficulty AZ have experienced in England means this is not a routine away assignment. Their attacking confidence should encourage them to press the match forward, but the draw remains a viable outcome if Sunderland refuse to open the game.
Team News: The expected XIs and the gaps around them
Sunderland will be without Alan Browne and Aji Alese, who were omitted from the UEFA Europa League squad. Romaine Mundle and Habib Diarra are also out with knee and hamstring injuries respectively, while Dayann Methalie is suspended. Those absences reduce the alternatives around a side expected to retain its established double-pivot structure.
Robin Roefs should start in goal, with Reinildo Mandava and Dan Ballard joining Kevin Danso and Thomas Meunier in the backline. Mandava and Ballard are selections Sunderland will want to keep stable behind the ball. In midfield, Noah Sadiki should join Granit Xhaka in the two-man base, with Xhaka providing the more secure presence on the right side of the pair.
The attacking quartet should be built around Enzo Le Fee behind Brian Brobbey, with Nilson Angulo on the left and Trai Hume on the right. Le Fee is the expected penalty taker and remains the clearest central creator in the selection, although he too has not appeared this season.
Hume is the player Sunderland lean on most heavily in the attacking midfield line; his work on the right must connect with Meunier without leaving the full-back isolated. Brobbey gives the side a fixed central reference rather than another player drifting away from the box.
Probable Sunderland Lineup (4-2-3-1): Roefs; Meunier, Danso, Ballard, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Hume, Le Fee, Angulo; Brobbey
Probable AZ Alkmaar Lineup (4-2-3-1): De Busser; de Wit, Goes, Schouten, Chavez; Koopmeiners, Kwakman; Patati, Stengs, Daal; Meerdink
AZ are expected to use the same 4-2-3-1 that has served as their regular structure. Jordy Clasie is returning from knee problems, but Denso Kasius and Stije Resink are out, as is Kees Smit with a groin injury. Hobie Verhulst is unavailable because he is not eligible, while Valdemar Byskov and Elijah Dijkstra remain doubtful with ankle and leg problems, respectively.
Jari De Busser should hold the goalkeeping position behind Mateo Chevez, Lewis Schouten, Wouter Goes and Mees de Wit selection. Goes and Schouten give AZ a centre-back pairing that the staff have treated as settled, while Peer Koopmeiners should anchor the midfield alongside Dave Kwakman.
Calvin Stengs is expected to operate behind Mexx Meerdink, with Weslley Patati on the right and Ro-Zangelo Daal on the left. Daal is the main attacking focal point in this predicted XI and has been improving, strong form. Meerdink is a more delicate call. He is the likely central striker, but his recent output has not been convincing.
Tactics: The right side is where the plans start to pull apart for Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar
Both teams should line up in a 4-2-3-1, with two holding midfielders protecting the back four and one central attacker working behind the striker. Sunderland’s version is designed to keep enough cover behind the ball while still allowing the wide players and Enzo Le Fee to support Brobbey.
At home, they should try to win, but not by abandoning the structure that has been used repeatedly in recent matches. AZ have the same basic arrangement, yet their recent attacking production gives the shape a different feel. The double pivot can release Calvin Stengs while the wide players stretch Sunderland’s back four, and Ro-Zangelo Daal is the clearest route toward making the home side defend wider than it would prefer.
AZ should be prepared to take the win if it presents itself, but they do not need to turn every attack into a gamble. The centre will decide whether Sunderland can maintain that controlled approach.
Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki need to stay close enough to the defenders to prevent Stengs from receiving freely between the lines, while Le Fee has to offer Sunderland a route out when AZ push their full-backs forward. If Sunderland are forced to chase the game, the double pivot can become disconnected from the front four and the match will move away from the compact contest they want.
The most important duel is on Sunderland’s right. Thomas Meunier has to contain Daal while still providing enough support for Trai Hume, and Daal’s improving form gives AZ a natural way to pull Sunderland’s defensive block apart.
If Meunier handles the threat, Sunderland can retain their back four and keep the game inside their measured approach. If Daal repeatedly wins that contest, Sunderland will have to open the right side of their structure, leaving more space for Stengs and Meerdink to attack. There is a second layer behind that duel.
Hume is Sunderland’s main right-sided attacking outlet, so the home side cannot simply leave him deep beside Meunier. The decision to support Hume or protect the full-back will determine whether Sunderland can threaten AZ without exposing the channel Daal wants to enter.
In the middle, Xhaka’s screening of Stengs offers Sunderland another route to stability; if Stengs finds regular room, the home side will be defending AZ’s front four rather than controlling the match from its intended shape.
Prediction: AZ’s attacking baseline makes the away win the lean
We are predicting a win for AZ Alkmaar, albeit with medium confidence rather than certainty. The visitors have produced the stronger recent attacking baseline, averaging 2.76 expected goals for per match across their last five compared with Sunderland’s 1.55 across their last four. That gap matters because the hosts’ best route is to keep the game compact, while AZ have more evidence of being able to create enough pressure to force the home side into an open chase.
The recent results point in the same direction. AZ’s four wins and one draw contrast with Sunderland’s output in four games, and the away side’s established 4-2-3-1 should be better equipped to keep its attacking players connected when the match becomes stretched.
Lean: AZ Alkmaar win
Range: 1-2/0-2/1-3
Ro-Zangelo Daal’s duel with Thomas Meunier is the clearest individual route to that advantage. However, the broader issue is whether Sunderland can keep both holding midfielders connected to the defence for long enough. The strongest case against the away win is Sunderland’s ability to turn the occasion into an organised home performance.
If Meunier survives the first pressure from Daal and Granit Xhaka prevents Calvin Stengs from receiving in central space, Sunderland can keep the match narrow and make AZ work through a crowded penalty area. Brian Brobbey would then have a chance to bring Nilos Angulo, Trai Hume, and Enzo Le Fee into the game, while AZ’s unsettled right-back decision could give Sunderland an attacking target of their own. The likely scoreline range is 1-2, 0-2 or 1-3.
One selection could change the balance
The remaining uncertainty is AZ Alkmaar’s right-back selection. If that player can hold his position and support the defence without allowing Nilos Angulo and Trai Hume to attack the same side repeatedly, AZ should have enough structure to sustain their pressure.
If Sunderland can isolate that area early, the European occasion may become more than atmosphere. It could give the home side the territorial foothold needed to make the predicted away control much less comfortable.
