Bayer Leverkusen will hope to keep their title hopes alive when they travel to Holstein Kiel on Saturday afternoon.
Bayer Leverkusen will be desperate for a victory to keep their fading Bundesliga title hopes alive as they travel to the Holstein-Stadion to face struggling Holstein Kiel on Saturday. With the hosts rooted to the bottom of the table and the visitors chasing leaders Bayern Munich, this matchup carries significant implications at both ends of the standings.
Bayer Leverkusen will be desperate for a victory to keep their fading Bundesliga title hopes alive as they travel to the Holstein-Stadion to face struggling Holstein Kiel on Saturday. With the hosts rooted to the bottom of the table and the visitors chasing leaders Bayern Munich, this match-up carries significant implications at both ends of the standings.
Marcel Rapp’s side endured another setback last weekend, falling to a 3-1 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt. The loss further exposed their defensive frailties, as they conceded three goals, faced four big chances, and allowed nearly 2.5 xG before managing to net a late consolation goal in the 73rd minute.
Kiel’s defensive struggles have been a recurring theme this season, with the team shipping at least two goals in 12 of their last 13 league games. They have conceded a staggering 14 goals in their previous five matches, a statistic that underlines their vulnerability at the back.
Despite their perilous position, Kiel remain just one point away from 16th-placed Heidenheim, who currently occupy the relegation playoff spot. With 15th-placed Hoffenheim sitting on 21 points, the Storks’ best chance of survival might be through the relegation playoff rather than direct safety. However, their recent form does little to inspire confidence, as they are winless in their last five matches (D2 L3) and have suffered defeat in 15 of their 22 league outings.
One bright spot for Kiel has been their home form in recent weeks. They have picked up two wins and a draw in their last four games at the Holstein-Stadion, scoring 12 times but conceding eight in that period. If they are to cause an upset against Leverkusen, their attacking output must compensate for their defensive deficiencies.
Die Schwarzroten were left frustrated last time out, as they failed to capitalize on their dominance in a goalless draw against Bayern Munich. Xabi Alonso’s side missed five big chances, struck the woodwork twice, and restricted Bayern to just two shots in a match they arguably should have won.
Leverkusen’s stalemate with the league leaders was their second consecutive 0-0 draw, but prior to that, they had scored six goals across two games. Despite the recent dip in attacking output, Alonso’s men had found the net in 17 consecutive league games before their back-to-back goalless outings.
A victory is imperative for Leverkusen if they hope to keep their slim title chances alive. They currently trail Bayern by eight points with 12 matches remaining, but there is a possibility the Bavarians could drop points on Sunday against third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt. That makes a win in Kiel even more crucial.
However, Leverkusen have reasons to be wary of their hosts. In the reverse fixture on October 5, Holstein Kiel stunned them with a 2-2 draw despite falling behind 2-0 within the opening eight minutes. Recent form has also been a concern for Alonso’s side, as they have failed to win four of their last seven Bundesliga matches (D3 L1). That being said, they have still won nine of their last 12 games in the league.
Another area of concern for Leverkusen is their recent away form. They have failed to win any of their last three road games (D2 L1), though, before that, they had won four straight away fixtures while keeping three clean sheets. They will need to rediscover their resilience on the road if they are to take all three points from Kiel. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel are facing several injury concerns ahead of the match. Defenders Patrick Erras, Colin Kleine-Bekel, Carl Johansson, Ivan Nekic, and John Tolkin are all ruled out, significantly depleting their options at the back.
Their absences could see a reshuffled backline, with Timo Becker, David Zec, and Marco Komenda forming a three-man central defence. Marko Ivezic and Lewis Holtby are expected to occupy the wing-back positions, offering width and defensive support.
In midfield, Armin Gigovic, Nicolai Remberg, and Magnus Knudsen will likely start as a trio, aiming to provide stability in the centre of the park. Finn Porath is not expected to be available for selection, which further limits their options in the middle.
With forwards Alexander Bernhardsson, Benedikt Pichler, and Steven Skrzybski also sidelined, Holstein Kiel’s attacking choices are restricted. As a result, Phil Harres and Shuto Machino are likely to start as the two centre-forwards, tasked with breaking down the Leverkusen defence.
Holstein Kiel are expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation. Timon Weiner will start in goal, shielded by a back three consisting of Timo Becker, David Zec, and Marco Komenda. Marko Ivezic and Lewis Holtby will operate as wing-backs, providing width and defensive cover.
The midfield will feature Armin Gigovic in a deeper role, with Nicolai Remberg and Magnus Knudsen adding energy and creativity. Up front, Phil Harres and Shuto Machino will be responsible for leading the attack, aiming to capitalise on any defensive lapses from Bayer Leverkusen.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Weiner; Becker, Zec, Komenda; Ivezic, Gigovic, Remberg, Knudsen, Holtby; Harres, Machino
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen will be without defender Jeanuel Belocian, who is ruled out for the rest of the season, as well as attacker Martin Terrier, who also faces a long-term absence.
Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, and Piero Hincapie are expected to form a solid back three, playing in front of goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky. In midfield, Granit Xhaka and Exequiel Palacios will operate as a double pivot, providing stability and ball distribution.
In the attacking third, Florian Wirtz is a guaranteed starter and will be the primary creative force. Nathan Tella and Victor Boniface are likely to join him in the forward line, adding pace and a goal-scoring threat.
Bayer Leverkusen are expected to line up in a 3-4-3 formation. Lukas Hradecky will start in goal, with Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, and Piero Hincapie forming the defensive trio. Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo will occupy the wing-back roles, tasked with providing width and supporting both defence and attack.
In midfield, Granit Xhaka and Exequiel Palacios will control the tempo, ensuring defensive solidity while also pushing forward when required. The attacking line will consist of Nathan Tella on the right, Florian Wirtz centrally as the playmaker, and Victor Boniface leading the line as the main striker.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Hradecky; Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz, Boniface
Key Stats
- Holstein Kiel came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 in their first-ever Bundesliga meeting with Bayer Leverkusen earlier this season.
- Bayer Leverkusen are the only team to drop points against a last-placed side this season, drawing with Kiel and Bochum.
- Holstein Kiel are in last place for the first time since Matchday 5 and have recorded the second-worst campaign for a Bundesliga debutant in history.
- Bayer Leverkusen’s 0-0 draw against Bayern Munich was their eighth draw of the season, a league-high.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 27 Bundesliga away games, the second-longest such run in league history.
Player to Watch
Florian Wirtz
Wirtz has been one of Leverkusen’s most influential players this season, dictating play in the final third with his creativity, vision, and technical ability. His ability to unlock defences with precise passes and his knack for scoring crucial goals make him a key figure in this matchup.
The German attacker will be vital against a Holstein Kiel side that struggles defensively. His movement between the lines, combined with his dribbling skills and composure in front of goal, could prove to be the difference. With Leverkusen in dire need of a win to keep their title hopes alive, the 20-year-old will be expected to step up and deliver another game-changing performance.
Prediction
Holstein Kiel 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen’s superior squad quality, attacking prowess, and title ambitions make them clear favourites heading into this fixture. However, Holstein Kiel’s occasional resilience at home and their desperate need for points to avoid relegation could make this a trickier encounter than expected.
Xabi Alonso’s side will likely dominate possession and create numerous chances, but their recent wastefulness in front of goal must be addressed. Holstein Kiel, on the other hand, will hope to exploit set-piece situations and defensive lapses to make things difficult for the visitors.
The visitors should have enough quality to get the job done, but Holstein Kiel’s fighting spirit might ensure they do not go down without a fight. The Hard Tackle predicts a 3-1 win for Xabi Alonso and his charges.
