Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Preview and Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen will aim to close the gap on Bayern Munich when they take on SC Freiburg this weekend.

Bayer Leverkusen will aim to continue their impressive run of form when they welcome SC Freiburg to the BayArena on Saturday in a Bundesliga clash.

The defending champions are currently second in the table with 29 points, trailing Bayern Munich by just four following their recent 2-0 victory over Augsburg. Freiburg, meanwhile, secured a 3-2 win against Wolfsburg and sit fifth in the standings with 24 points.

Leverkusen’s win over Augsburg was not a spectacular affair, with only one big chance created between the teams, but early goals from Martin Terrier and Florian Wirtz proved sufficient. Manager Xabi Alonso praised his side’s discipline, saying, “We were very solid and had good control, which is what we aim for in away matches.”

After an inconsistent start to the season, where Leverkusen dropped points in six of their first 10 Bundesliga games, the champions have found their rhythm, winning their last four league fixtures and seven consecutive matches across all competitions.

Defensively, Die Schwarzroten have improved significantly, keeping four clean sheets in their last six outings, matching the total from their previous 13 games. However, their offensive output has dipped slightly, with eight goals scored in their last five matches compared to ten in the two prior fixtures.

At home, Leverkusen have been nearly invincible since their August defeat to RB Leipzig, winning eight and drawing two of their last 10 matches at BayArena. Freiburg’s thrilling 3-2 win over Wolfsburg showcased both their attacking potential and defensive frailties.

After building a 3-0 lead by the hour mark, late goals from Wolfsburg made the closing stages nervy. Manager Julian Schuster expressed satisfaction with the result but admitted his side could have been more clinical and defensively solid.

Freiburg have scored eight and conceded six goals in their last four games, underlining their mixed form. They have two wins, one draw, and two losses in their previous five Bundesliga outings, though they have lost only once in their last six league matches.

Their away form, however, remains a concern. Freiburg are winless in their last four Bundesliga away fixtures (D2 L2) and have managed just two wins in their previous nine road matches, suffering four defeats. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Bayer Leverkusen

Leverkusen have seen their injury concerns ease significantly, but Amine Adli and Jonas Hofmann remain sidelined and unavailable for selection. Additionally, striker Victor Boniface is a doubt for this clash, with his fitness to be assessed closer to kickoff.

The availability of other key players will allow manager Xabi Alonso to maintain a largely stable lineup as the team aims to extend their winning streak. Leverkusen are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 setup, emphasising defensive solidity while maintaining an attacking edge.

In goal, Lukas Hradecky will continue as the reliable shot-stopper. The defensive line will feature a back three comprising Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, and Piero Hincapie, offering a mix of composure and strength.

Operating as wing-backs, Jeremie Frimpong on the right and Alejandro Grimaldo on the left will provide width and contribute both defensively and offensively. The midfield double pivot will consist of Granit Xhaka and Robert Andrich, who will work to control the tempo and protect the backline.

In the attacking midfield roles, Nathan Tella and Florian Wirtz will operate as the creative forces behind the striker, tasked with breaking down Freiburg’s defence. Leading the line, Patrik Schick will look to capitalise on chances created by the supporting cast.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz; Schick

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Preview and Prediction.

SC Freiburg

The visitors are set to be without midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyereh, who remains sidelined until February due to injury. This absence will likely see Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage paired in the centre of midfield. Goalkeeper Florian Muller has been ruled out with a concussion, but Freiburg will not feel his absence too keenly as regular first-choice keeper Noah Atubolu has started 12 of the club’s 14 league matches this season and was already expected to feature.

Freiburg are expected to retain their 4-2-3-1 formation. In defence, the backline will likely consist of Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart as the central defensive pairing, providing solidity and experience. They will be flanked by full-backs Lukas Kubler on the right and Christian Gunter on the left, with Gunter’s attacking prowess offering an additional threat down the flank.

The midfield will rely on the duo of Maximilian Eggestein and Patrick Osterhage, who will play pivotal roles in breaking up play and linking the defence with the attack. Further forward, Ritsu Doan is expected to operate on the right wing, with Lucas Holer positioned centrally in the attacking midfield role and Vincenzo Grifo providing creativity and flair from the left.

Leading the line will be Michael Gregoritsch, who will aim to capitalise on chances created by the attacking midfield trio as Freiburg look to trouble a resilient Bayer Leverkusen side.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Atubolu; Kubler, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter; Eggestein, Osterhage; Doan, Holer, Grifo; Gregoritsch

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Bayer Leverkusen completed the double over SC Freiburg last season (2-1 at home, 3-2 away) and are now on the verge of securing three consecutive Bundesliga wins against them. This would mark just the second time they have achieved such a feat, with the first being from 2004 to 2010 when Freiburg experienced relegation and promotion during the period.
  • SC Freiburg are currently on a three-game unbeaten run in the Bundesliga in 2024 (W2 D1), their best streak this year. However, Freiburg are winless in their last 16 top-flight matches against defending champions (D4 L12). Their last victory in such a fixture was a 2-1 home win against Bayern Munich in 2015.
  • Leverkusen have won four straight Bundesliga games, equaling their number of victories from the opening 10 matchdays this season. If they win, it will be their third successive season finishing the calendar year with a victory in their final Bundesliga match before the winter break. The last time they lost such a match was in December 2021 against Freiburg (2-1 away).
  • Despite their dominance, Bayer Leverkusen are winless in their last four Bundesliga matches played in the Saturday evening primetime slot (D3 L1). Their most recent home match in this timeslot was a 3-2 defeat to Leipzig, which is their only loss in their last 48 top-flight fixtures.
  • SC Freiburg have used 25 different players in the Bundesliga this season, ranking among the highest in the league alongside TSG Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig (26 each). By contrast, Bayer Leverkusen have fielded just 21 players, the fewest in the league, showing a more stable lineup approach. Only Frankfurt (36) have made more changes to their starting XI than Freiburg (35).

Player to Watch

Florian Wirtz

Embed from Getty Images

The 21-year-old attacking midfielder has been instrumental in orchestrating Leverkusen’s attacking play, combining vision, creativity, and technical brilliance to unlock opposition defenses.

Against Augsburg, Wirtz demonstrated his class once again, contributing significantly to his side’s victory with his movement and ability to link up with teammates in advanced areas. This season, he has consistently been a source of inspiration for Xabi Alonso’s side, frequently setting up chances and chipping in with crucial goals.

Wirtz’s versatility allows him to operate effectively in central attacking roles or drift into wide positions, making him difficult to mark. His ability to thread incisive passes and take on defenders with ease makes him a constant threat, especially when paired with Leverkusen’s dynamic attacking setup.

In the upcoming clash against Freiburg, Wirtz will be tasked with breaking down a compact and disciplined defensive unit. His influence in the final third will be key to Leverkusen’s chances of extending their winning streak, and his creativity could well be the decisive factor in securing another victory at BayArena. Keep an eye on Wirtz as he looks to stamp his authority on the game and propel his team closer to the Bundesliga summit.

Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg

Leverkusen’s solid defensive displays and strong home form make them favourites against a Freiburg side that has struggled for consistency, particularly on the road. While Freiburg’s attacking capabilities could test the home side’s backline, Xabi Alonso and his charges are likely to edge this encounter.

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