The Premier League title race: Who has the better chance? Arsenal or Manchester City?

Arsenal and Manchester City are poised for a strong finish, which makes it challenging to predict the Premier League winner at this stage of the season.

Since the turn of the year, there has been a massive turnaround in the Premier League title race, which has happened steadily. Arsenal, reeling from back-to-back losses against West Ham United and Fulham, were once considered out of the running. At the same time, Manchester City had only begun their unbeaten run following a defeat to Aston Villa earlier in December.

Liverpool, who had only drawn to Arsenal at Anfield, found themselves in pole position, heading into the festive period albeit with a slender lead. However, the Gunners’ consecutive losses put the Merseysiders five points to the good. Mikel Arteta’s side languished in fourth place, just a point ahead of arch-rivals Tottenham, who were only a point behind after Matchday 20.

Since that loss to Fulham, Arsenal have barely looked back, losing just once in 2024 and beginning the year with an 8-game winning streak. Their ultimate test was supposed to be those difficult trips to Manchester City, Tottenham, and Manchester United. They have conquered two, drawing at the Etihad and winning away at Spurs.

At the end of Sunday, they have 80 points and a far superior goal difference than second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand over the Gunners. Circling back to Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp’s side have given a tough fight, spending the highest number of days at the top of the pile.

However, a dismal period in the season saw them draw to Manchester United and lose back-to-back games against Crystal Palace, and the result away at West Ham toppled their season around. As things stand, Liverpool are pencilled in to finish third, and unless there is a significant drop-off from Arsenal and Manchester City, the Merseysiders are certainly out of the running.

On the other hand, Manchester City have been relentless in all competitions, as the win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday made it 30 games unbeaten for Pep Guardiola’s side. They got eliminated from the Champions League, but it was on penalties, which keeps their unbeaten stance going by the metric of 90 minutes.

They have barely dropped off in the league, barring Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool draws. With five games remaining in their season and a game in hand over leaders Arsenal, Guardiola’s side are the favourites to clinch the title. In any case, we look at the possible scenarios that would turn the tide for either side and the remaining fixtures for these teams.

The Run-in


When it was ten games to go, many media outlets analysed the remaining fixtures for the three teams. Arsenal had the toughest of them all, including a trip to Manchester City. Coincidentally, Liverpool had the easiest of them all, while Manchester City were expected to put in a concerted effort as they have done over the past many years.

Sticking with Arsenal, Mikel Arteta’s men have remarkably responded to their doubters with solid performances, barring that Aston Villa result. Had they managed to win that game at the Emirates, they would have been the undisputed leaders in the league, irrespective of Manchester City’s game.

Hence, the title is beyond their hands, as all Arteta’s side can do is win all their remaining games and hope Manchester City loses ground in one of their last five games. The Gunners had a big test with consecutive London Derbies in a few days.

If thumping Chelsea 5-0 at the Emirates was not enough, Arsenal took three points away at Tottenham. They next face an in-form Bournemouth side, who have only set a club record for the most ever points in a Premier League season and breaking into the top half of the table.

They faced the threat of the Cherries last season at the Emirates, only to be rescued by a late Reiss Nelson winner. This time, the Gunners are more defence-minded, which suggests they are concentrating more on not allowing Bournemouth any room.

However, the biggest threat for Arteta’s side could be the daunting trip to Old Trafford, where Manchester United cannot be underestimated at any given time. The Red Devils will be more than charged to stop their arch-rivals from taking a win, although should they beat or hold the Gunners to a draw, they will inadvertently hand the advantage to local rivals Manchester City.

Many are expecting the final game of the season at home to Everton as a straightforward one for the Gunners. Hence, should Arsenal win all three of their remaining games, they will give themselves a chance only if Manchester City drop any points, and on paper, they have mostly overcome all their challenging games.

Manchester City

Much like Arsenal, Manchester City suffered from a crunch fixture list, and will do so more than the Gunners as they have a game in hand. After the weekend’s results, Arsenal may have more time to prepare for their games than Manchester City, although the difference is only marginal and spans over an extra game.

On paper, Manchester City might have only one game where they could falter: a trip away to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Incidentally, since the new Tottenham stadium opened in 2019, Guardiola’s side has yet to score a goal there, let alone win.

They did amend that in the FA Cup this season, as they narrowly beat Spurs here with a single-goal margin. Arsenal fans will undoubtedly hope that Manchester City drop points there and helps them in the title run-in.

Meanwhile, City also have an away trip to Fulham, with the two London travels sandwiched between home clashes to Wolves and West Ham, with the latter coming on the season’s final day. Guardiola’s side has things in their hands as things stand, and should they win all their remaining games, they will be crowned Champions.

The Scenario and Prediction

There are a few scenarios to envisage ahead of the final few games for both sides. Manchester City are the clear favourites as they are expected to win their remaining season games. With their current form, Arsenal are also expected to take three points in their fixtures, which leaves little doubt about the title changing hands.

Arsenal have a big test at Old Trafford, as fans realistically see that game as the only one where their team can falter. Yet, with their performances and the dismal displays by Erik ten Hag’s side, the Gunners will enter that game as favourites.

There are home games against Bournemouth and Everton, but most people fully expect them to take three points in both fixtures. Meanwhile, Manchester City, on paper, have two tough fixtures against Tottenham and West Ham United, although they are expected to lose points only against the former.

Their home form has been superior, and they have not lost a single game at the Etihad all season. they are not about to start a trend with two games left to play at this venue. Hence, as a prediction, Manchester City are expected to lift the Premier League title by two points over Arsenal, which will be a record fourth in a row.

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