Aston Villa’s underlying metrics paint a different picture than the table, as there are significant doubts over their Premier League title credentials
Aston Villa’s current position and their 11-game winning run make the Premier League title talk feel real, but the underlying numbers paint a shakier picture of how repeatable this form is. The Villans are still riding a wave of finishing, game-state swings and key moments that usually cool off across a full Premier League season.
The Aston Villa run
Aston Villa’s 2-1 comeback at Chelsea extended their streak to an 11th straight win, equalling the club record, and kept them third in the table and within three points of leaders Arsenal. That context matters: the results are elite, and the table pressure is genuine, especially with Arsenal next.
But the same Chelsea match also showed how thin the margins can be inside a winning run, because the Villans reached half-time without attempting a single shot before flipping the game after a triple change.
The underlying case
One major warning light is how far Aston Villa’s outcomes are running ahead of their chance quality at both ends. According to The Athletic’s expected-goals audit, Villa have scored 27 league goals from 18.6 xG and conceded only 18 from 23.4 xGA, a rare two-way swing that screams “hot finishing plus hot goalkeeping” more than sustainable dominance.
If those gaps narrow even slightly, the West Midlands outfit’s game-to-game edge in tight matches starts to look far more ordinary.
Exploring the underlying numbers behind Aston Villa’s season
Aston Villa’s underlying numbers suggest a side winning more than its chance quality would normally predict, with a sizeable gap between expected goals and actual goals at both ends.
Chance creation
By late December, Aston Villa’s attacking output has run well ahead of their shot-based chance quality: they have scored 27 league goals from 18.6 xG (about +8.4 goals above expectation). A separate snapshot also puts Unai Emery’s menon 18.54 xG in the league this season, which broadly supports the idea that their chance creation is not matching their goal return.
Earlier in the season (data correct as of 1 Dec 2025), Opta Analyst had the Birmingham-based outfit on 16 goals from 11.88 xG, again pointing to overperformance in finishing.
Shot profile
A big part of the story is how Aston Villa have generated value from low-probability shots, especially from range. Opta Analyst noted Villa had already scored nine Premier League goals from outside the box and were averaging 0.69 outside-the-box goals per match at that point of the season.
That same piece highlighted the West Midlands club’s average xG per shot (0.08) as the lowest in the league, which implies a diet of lower-quality looks rather than regular cut-backs and big chances.
Defence and goalkeeping
Late-December expected-goals data also shows Aston Villa benefiting defensively: they have conceded 18 goals from 23.4 xGA (about -5.4 goals versus expectation). Opta Analyst attributed part of that to Emiliano Martinez’s performance, listing him at 1.4 goals prevented and a 77.1% save rate at the time of writing.
Opta Analyst also noted the Villans had conceded ten non-penalty goals (second only to leaders Arsenal’s seven) as of 1 Dec 2025.
Expected points warning
When expected goals for and against are converted into “expected points”, the picture has looked far less title-worthy at times. Opta Analyst reported that an xG-based expected-points table placed Villa 19th while they were actually fourth, describing it as an “incredible difference”. In plain terms, that’s what a results run built on hot shooting and key saves often looks like before it cools off.
Depth and margins
A title challenge usually survives injuries, suspensions and off-days because the baseline performance stays high regardless of who starts. Villa’s win at Stamford Bridge leaned heavily on in-game management and impact changes (Watkins turning the match after coming on), and they also left with key suspensions (Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara) that can bite when fixtures stack up. That’s the broader concern: the squad is well-coached, but the current run is asking for near-perfect timing in moments, not just steady control of matches.
What “title numbers” look like
Arsenal’s xG difference (22.96) shows a side that wins by controlling both boxes, not just by nicking results. City’s xG is similarly elite (33.54), and even with a higher xGA than Arsenal, their xG difference (11.72) still reflects a team consistently generating more (and better) chances than it gives up.
Villa’s xG difference (2.25) is the key red flag: it suggests their results have leaned heavily on converting and saving at rates that are harder to sustain across 38 games.
Conclusion
Aston Villa’s run has been brilliant, but the underlying numbers hint it is being powered by finishing and goalkeeping streaks rather than week‑to‑week control. They have scored 27 league goals from 18.6 expected goals, while conceding only 18 from 23.4 expected goals against, a swing that flatters both ends of the pitch.
When that sort of gap exists, it usually narrows over time: shots stop flying in from low-value areas, and a few more of the opponent’s big chances go in. The Chelsea comeback, where Villa went to half-time without a shot before turning the game with substitutions, felt like another reminder that the margins are doing heavy lifting.
None of this makes Aston Villa a bad side, as Unai Emery has built a hard-working, well-drilled team. However, it does suggest the current points pace is ahead of the process. Sustaining a title push normally requires elite chance creation plus elite chance prevention across 38 games; the Midlands club’s expected-goals profile looks closer to a top-four fight.
The most realistic outcome is a UEFA Champions League chase, with a finish somewhere between third and fifth, unless the underlying numbers rise to match the results. Right now, it feels like a surge, not takeover.
