A spot in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals will be on the line when Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain clash at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.
The curtains will fall on the UEFA Champions League round of 16 this week with the second-leg clashes. The action on the day will start with the match between Sporting CP and Bodo/Glimt at Estadio Jose Alvalade before continuing with three simultaneous games, including Chelsea vs PSG at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea qualified for the UEFA Champions League round of 16 by finishing in the top eight of the opening phase. That capped off a solid start to life under Liam Rosenior, with the West London club barely going a game without a win. However, the Blues have slipped up in recent weeks, as they have won only three of their last eight games, losing two successive matches heading into the clash with PSG this week.
Speaking of PSG, Les Parisiens took the scenic route to the UEFA Champions League round of 16 after beating AS Monaco in the playoffs. However, the Ligue 1 and Champions League holders have also been inconsistent in recent weeks, failing to win three of their last seven matches in all competitions.
PSG needed some luck but also produced a colossal performance to beat Chelsea 5-2, with the calamitous Filip Jorgensen sending Les Parisiens a step closer to the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.
Prediction
Chelsea
Liam Rosenior has received a mixed bag of updates on the team news front ahead of his side’s latest fixture. The Chelsea head coach may be bereft of the services of as many as half a dozen first-team players vs PSG on Tuesday.
Reece James is the latest absentee after sustaining a hamstring injury. The Chelsea captain has joined Filip Jorgensen (groin) and Levi Colwill (knee) in the treatment room. Meanwhile, Estevao Willian and Jamie Gittens face late fitness tests to determine their availability. Mykhailo Mudryk continues his suspension after failing a doping test several months ago. However, Pedro Neto is available after missing the Premier League clash with Newcastle United this past weekend.
Robert Sanchez is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Chelsea lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs PSG on Tuesday. The backline will feature Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, and Marc Cucurella.
As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Andrey Santos and Moises Caicedo in the double pivot, with Enzo Fernandez reprising the no. 10 role. Finally, Joao Pedro will lead the line for Chelsea against Paris Saint-Germain, with Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer being the two wide attackers.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Santos, Caicedo; Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Neto; Joao Pedro
PSG
Unlike his counterpart in the Chelsea dugout, Luis Enrique has no new issues to worry about ahead of the trip to Stamford Bridge. The Paris Saint-Germain head coach will be without only two first-team players on Tuesday.
Fabian Ruiz (knee) and Quentin Ndjantou (hamstring) are the only absentees, with the duo closing in on returning from their layoffs. However, Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia must be wary of picking up a booking, as they are on the suspension tightrope.
Matvey Safonov will get the nod over Lucas Chevalier between the sticks, with PSG lining up in a 4-3-3 formation in front of him vs Chelsea on Tuesday. The backline will feature Achraf Hakimi, Marquinho, Willian Pacho, and Nuno Mendes.
As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, and Joao Neves in the middle of the park. Finally, Ousmane Dembele will spearhead the PSG attack against Chelsea, with Bradley Barcola and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia being the two wide attackers.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola
Key Stats
- Chelsea are winless in their last five UEFA Champions League games vs PSG (D2 L3); their joint-longest winless run against an opponent in the competition (also 5 vs Bayern Munich, April 2005 to September 2025).
- PSG are unbeaten in their last five games against English teams in the UEFA Champions League (W4 D1), and they could go six matches without defeat against them in the competition for the first time here. They are looking to progress from their fourth consecutive UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie against English opponents (previously vs Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal last season). Before last season, the Parisians had only progressed from two of their six knockout stage ties against English sides in the competition.
- Chelsea have a three-goal deficit in this tie. Only one team in UEFA Champions League history eliminated the holders in the knockout stages after losing the first leg by as many as three goals: Deportivo de La Coruna versus Milan in the 2003/04 quarter-finals (lost 1-4 away, won 4-0 at home). However, the Blues have lost their last three games in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages and have never previously lost four successive clashes. They conceded five goals in the first leg of this tie, already just two short of the most goals they have conceded in a two-legged knockout stage tie in the competition (7 vs Bayern Munich in 2019/20, round of 16).
- PSG have won 66.7% of their UEFA Champions League knockout stage matches under Luis Enrique (12/18). Of managers with 15+ knockout-stage games with a team in the competition, this is the joint-highest win percentage by any team/coach duo, along with Barcelona under Luis Enrique (66.7% – 10/15).
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has averaged a goal (6) or assist (4) every 63 minutes in the UEFA Champions League this season (10 in 10 games); the best ratio by a PSG player with five or more goal involvements in an edition, ahead of Kylian Mbappe in 2022/23 (65).
Player to Watch
Enzo Fernandez
While Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Cole Palmer were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Enzo Fernandez as the Player to Watch for Tuesday’s Premier League clash between Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain at Stamford Bridge.
The Argentine international has the most goal involvements for the West London club (5) in the UEFA Champions League this term (G3 A2), including scoring and assisting in the first leg against PSG. He also leads all Chelsea players in this edition for defensive line-breaking passes (12) and chances created (13).
The 2022 FIFA World Cup winner will also don the armband for Chelsea in Reece James’s absence on Tuesday. The added responsibility will bring the best out of Fernandez. How he fares will determine if Chelsea can topple PSG this week.
Prediction
Chelsea 2-1 PSG
Losing Reece James to a hamstring injury is a critical blow to Chelsea’s prospects, but the hosts will take heart from the fact that they had better underlying numbers than PSG in the first leg. With the Blues chasing a three-goal deficit, they will take the game to the away side from the get-go.
That will leave gaps at the back, allowing PSG to exploit Chelsea’s soft underbelly. However, unlike the first leg, the home side will have better underlying numbers and more goals, although the resolute display will not yield a spot in the UEFA Champions League round of 16. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Liam Rosenior and his charges, handing PSG a 6-4 victory on aggregate.
