After five years and titles galore FC Barcelona has finally signed a centre-back, the last being Dmytro Chygrynskiy in 2009. However, the signee, JAi??rAi??my Mathieu, 30, is anything but a natural centre-back, let alone the proven world-class performer fans have been clamoring for. Until the 2012-13 season the ex-Valencia player was known and used as a left-back.
Nevertheless, players being retrained to perform in another position is neither radical nor unheard of. A prime example for a brilliant transformation if you will is Bastian Schweinsteigerai??i??s transition from adept wing-player to world-class midfielder under Louis Van Gaal. Yet, whereas Van Gaal recognized Schweinsteigerai??i??s capability to perform in such a role early during his tenure at Bayern Munich, both Mathieuai??i??s pervious managers and Barcelonaai??i??s scouting department remained pretty much oblivious to his latent aptitude to become a decent centre-back.
One of his much-lauded qualities he supposedly adds to Barcelonaai??i??s backline is pace and some ability on the ball since, well, heai??i??s a natural left-back by trade. But thatai??i??s exactly where the Frenchman, though not full French international, divides opinion. Pace, as opposed to other qualities such as technique or strength diminishes with age. Interestingly enough, thatai??i??s true for sports on the track or in the water. Neither Usain Bolt nor Michael Phelps can sustain their explosive pace well into their 30ai??i??s. It is not humanly possible. Athletes peak around their mid-20ai??i??s. Therefore making Barcelonaai??i??s decision to pay ai??i??20m for 30-year old Mathieu incomprehensible.
The casual Barcelona fan isnai??i??t too concerned with the financial implications of the Mathieu operation, while others are sold on the idea of having an old and expensive but fast centre-back.
Frankly, both stances give reason for concern. For one, not caring gives the Barcelona administration carte blanche to be financially irresponsible, as they have been in the past (not reading the fine print, anyone?), and two, every transfer operation must have its ceiling ai??i?? that was shattered in the Mathieu-deal.
As a reminder, JAi??rAi??my Mathieu is the most expensive centre-back (and defender, period) over the age of 30. In the history of football no other defender over 30 has cost more than Mathieu, who hasnai??i??t even established himself in the France national team.
Thatai??i??s quite a feat in itself. Usually, excessive transfer fees are driven by two primary factors: current ability and/or potential.
By all accounts, Mathieu is neither a world-class centre-back (nor left-back for that matter) nor has he the potential to become one. At almost 31 years (on 10/29/2014 to be exact) heai??i??s closer to his retirement than his physical peak, which he has arguably passed already.
There are also financial ramifications for Barcelona as tax-paying entity. Without going to too much into technicalities, and excluding wages, we are analyzing Mathieuai??i??s four-year contract (with an optional fifth) from an accountantai??i??s perspective.
Calculation A (four years)
Over the lifetime of his original deal, and assuming Barcelona donai??i??t activate his fifth year, Mathieuai??i??s ai??i??20m transfer fee equates to an amortization rate (fee divided by contract length) of ai??i??5m per annum.
Calculation B (five years)
Over a period of five years Mathieu would become 20% cheaper at an amortization rate of ai??i??4,0m per annum.
At first glance it looks like a reasonable value. Then again, by the time Barcelona has the option to extend Mathieuai??i??s deal for a fifth year heai??i??ll be 34 turning 35.
A prospective ai??i??40m centre-back
Now, letai??i??s give Mathieuai??i??s transfer fee some context in form of a hypothetical acquisition of a centre-back in the ai??i??40m-range. For the purpose of this exercise one is free to pick one of Borussia Dortmundai??i??s Mats Hummels, 25, AS Romaai??i??s Mehdi Benatia, 27, or Paris Saint-Germainai??i??s Marquinhos, 20.
For the record, a fee this large would be enough to register the most expensive transfer in Bundesliga history (in or outgoing), make Benatia the second most expensive outgoing CB transfer in Serie Aai??i??s history (behind Thiago Silva), and Marquinhos PSGai??i??s highest sale ai??i?? unadjusted for inflation of course.
Since Barcelona set the precedent by splashing ai??i??20m on 30-year old Mathieu, it is safe to assume the club expects him to be fit and healthy until heai??i??s 34 at the very least.
Disclaimer: The calculations do not account for wages, signing-on fees or bonuses. And donai??i??t include readjustments of contract-length to the original transfer fee.
The Hummels Calculation
Mats Hummels will not turn 26 for another five months (12/16/2014), so he could very easily play at top level for a further nine years, when he will turn 34.
Hummelai??i??s potential amortization rate would amount to ai??i??4,4m per annum. Which would put him 10% ahead of Mathieuai??i??s rate BUT with five extra years of service. Effectively making him a cheaper alternative in the long-term, to the tune of ai??i??2m for five years of extra service.
- ai??i??4,4m minus ai??i??4,0m (Mathieu rate) = ai??i??0,4m
- ai??i??0,4m multiplied by 5 years (Hummels bonus) = ai??i??2,0m
Or in other words, Hummels would play from the age of 30 to 34 for 10% of Mathieuai??i??s transfer fee.
Not to mention, thanks to Borussia Dortmundai??i??s exploits in the Champions League, and an exceptional World Cup campaign with eventual champions Germany, Hummels comes with a higher profile, and infinitely more marketability than Mathieu. By assuming Barcelona would stick to the standard 50% share of his image rights, Hummels amortization rate would decrease even further.
The Benatia Calculation
AS Romaai??i??s Mehdi Benatia turned 27 in April (04/17/2014) making him the oldest prospect in this exercise. Benatia could play for seven years (once again using the expiry date of Mathieuai??i??s contract as a benchmark), therefore the amortization rate attached to his transfer would equate to ai??i??5,7m per annum. Making him 42% more expensive than Mathieu. However, he also offers three years of extra service.
- ai??i??5,7m minus ai??i??4,0m = ai??i??1,7m
- ai??i??1,7m multiplied by 3 years (Benatia bonus) = ai??i??5,1m
Benatia would effectively cost Barcelona 25,5% of Mathieuai??i??s fee from the age of 30 to 34.
The Marquinhos Calculation
The Brazilian youngster is by far the youngest prospect, at 20-years. Hence he would have the longest tenure of all three, with 14 years of service, or an amortization rate of ai??i??2,9m per annum.
Since Marquinhos amortization rate is already smaller than Mathieuai??i??s he would effectively be a cost-free undertaking compared to the Frenchman from the age of 30 to 34.
The All-Time Most Expensive Players Over-30ai??i??s
The graphic already shows that the high-end market for players over 30 favors forwards, more specifically strikers. Even if it defeats conventional wisdom that strikers decline earlier than midfielders and defenders.
The average price-tag for an over-30 most expensive player is ai??i??20m, which is the exact value Barcelona paid for Mathieu. It also sets a bad precedent because, excluding keeper Angelo Perruzi, all players that feature in the top 10 are/were proven world-class performers. While it definitely contributed to an inflated fee, it also reflected their standing in the sport as superstars. Meaning the buying club also benefited from off-pitch earnings such as shirt sales and other merchandise carrying the names and images of the players.
To calculate efficiency over the lifetime of the contract, a player should feature in a high percentage of all possible matches (league and cup competitions). To provide a baseline the grand total of possible matches was adjusted for the different leagues and club competitions (all league matches, plus 3 cup matches, and at least the knock-out stages of an UEFA tournament).
Of the 10 players, only four can be considered out-and-out successes by appearing in at least 80% of all possible matches. Samuel Etoai??i??o at Anzhi Makhachkala (96%; 2011 ai??i?? 2013); Zlatan Ibrahimovic at Paris Saint-Germain (98%; 2012 ai??i?? present); Claude MakAi??lAi??lAi?? (84%; 2003 ai??i?? 2008); and Andrew Cole at Blackburn Rovers (98%; 2001 ai??i?? 2004).
However, only Makelele is even remotely comparable to Mathieu. Especially since both carry the exact same amortization rate of ai??i??4,0m (unadjusted, of course).
The All-Time Most Expensive Centre-Backs Over-30ai??i??s
Sad but true, neither applies to JAi??rAi??my Mathieu, who cost Barcelona almost double as much as Cannavaro, a genuine superstar.
Though the most expensive over-30 centre-backs to comparatively better than the most expensive players over 30, itai??i??s still hit and miss. Only five players pass the threshold of appearing in 80% of all possible matches: Fabio Cannavaro at Real Madrid (84%; 2006 ai??i?? 2009); Fabio Cannavaro at Juventus Turin (100%; 2004 ai??i?? 2006); Gareth Southgate at Middlesbrough (85%; 2001 ai??i?? 2006); Lucio at Inter Milan (96%; 2009 ai??i?? 2012); and Sylvain Distin at Everton (91%; 2009 ai??i?? present).
The median amortization rate of those five performers stands at ai??i??2,8m per annum, which still is 30% less than JAi??rAi??my Mathieuai??i??s ai??i??4,0m amortization rate.
The Curious Case of Jeremy Mathieuai??i??s Pay Cut
To even remotely justify the ai??i??20m investment in Mathieu, the Frenchman would have to play at least 177 matches over the next four years of his deal to reach 80%.
Anyone willing to take a gamble on that?
Plus thereai??i??s the much publicized campaign to champion JAi??rAi??my Mathieu as some sort of Good Samaritan because he was willing to take a pay cut.
In all earnestness, it sounds like a load of bull. According to the last published report by Deloitte, Valencia generated as much as ai??i??116m in revenue. Usually clubs commit as much as 60% of their turnover to wages (sometimes even more). One should also not forget Valenciaai??i??s epic mountain of debt to the tune of ai??i??320m (almost triple the annual turnover).
Applying those values to the wage bill of Valencia and the club would pay as much as ai??i??70m to its roster of 23 players.
Even with a lot of goodwill, and by being completely oblivious to logic and common sense, it would suggest that the average salary stands at ai??i??3m per player annually. Nonetheless, the wage bill encompasses all players. Not just the first team. Hence, the average salary would be well below ai??i??3m annually.
The Frenchman extended his stay in Valencia in 2013 until the conclusion of the 2016-17 season. Thatai??i??s a four-year contract. Assuming he would take a pay cut by forgoing ai??i??3m in salary, it would equate to ai??i??750,000 a season on his Valencia contract. And since it isnai??i??t very likely Mathieu earned more than ai??i??2,0m annually at Valencia he would now earn a paltry ai??i??1,25m at Barcelona.
Is anyone willing to believe that?
Hereai??i??s food for thought, personal terms are often agreed before an official bid is accepted. Mathieu has been vocal about how he talked to Luis Enrique as early as one month ago to discuss the ideas of his potential manager. It isnai??i??t out of question that he also negotiated his term then. So by pay-cut theyai??i??re likely referring to Mathieuai??i??s willingness to accept a deduction of his pre-agreed personal terms.
The prices for the 10 most expensive centre-backs over 30 ranged from ai??i??6,5m for Sylvain Distin to eventual Ballon dai??i??Or winner Fabio Cannavaro for ai??i??11,5m.
How Valencia were able to extract ai??i??20m for Mathieu is inexplicable. He isnai??i??t of high-profile, isnai??i??t exceptional at anything really, and not a world-class player. Not by a long-shot.
Of course the defenders of the Mathieu deal will likely refer to his pace, a physical gift. And one that vanishes fairly quickly (no pun intended). One doesnai??i??t have to look further than at Chelseaai??i??s Fernando Torres who isnai??i??t quite the same since he has lost that yard of pace that distinguished him from every other striker during his heyday.
Moreover, the very same people that defend Barcelonaai??i??s ai??i??20m outlay for Mathieu are also the ones who disapprove of Real Madrid paying ai??i??100m for Gareth Bale.
Bale signed for Madrid aged 24. Meaning, he could possibly play for Los Blancos until heai??i??s 34 (another nine years). He signed a six-year contract which would put his amortization rate at ai??i??16,6m per annum. If he maintains a high level and is offered an extension like Cristiano Ronaldo, whoai??i??s to say he canai??i??t play for Real Madrid until heai??i??s 34. If he is indeed able to survive this long in the Spanish capital his amortization rate would drop to an even ai??i??10m per annum.
It is worth noting though that Bale is (a) younger (b) a forward (c) far more marketable.
In conclusion it must be said, that while the Mathieu defenders have half an argument for his transfer (his pace); they fall short of making a compelling case that supports his economic viability.
To provide a perfect analogy, most normal people wouldnai??i??t dare to pay the price of a brand new Bentley for an old sedan with more than 100,000 km on it. On top of it, nobody would expect the sedan to last another 100,000km without any major incidents.
Because thatai??i??s what ai??i??20m is able to buy in the market – a Bentley. Why Bentley? Because there are still even more expensive cars available. For the right price. Of course.
What did Barcelona buy? An old sedan with 100,000km on it.
Perhaps the Blaugrana would be wise to adjust their system to the players they have instead of adjusting players to their system. Barcelonaai??i??s philosophy has become rigid to the point of enslavement to an unreachable ideal.
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