Belgium will host Italy in the final League A Group 1 game of the UEFA Nations League with a place in the quarter-finals at stake.
Having won their last outing, both Belgium and Italy are firmly in position to secure the top spot in the group and will go all out for the win here. With France also in the race for the top spot, neither team can afford to relax, as a defeat could knock them out of the competition.
The home team ended the previous international break with a heavy 4-1 defeat to France, but they have bounced back with a 2-1 win over Turkiye last time out. Despite conceding early in the game, they scripted a rather comfortable win.
Belgium are currently 3rd on the table with nine points in their five outings. They are a point behind Italy and France, making it a must-win fixture for them.
Meanwhile, Italy, who are top of the group with 10 points in their five outings (three wins and a draw), can go through with a draw, as it could see them finish 2nd if France end up winning against Turkiye. However, they would still try to win and finish top.
Since losing to Belgium on matchday 1, they have been unbeaten and are heading into this one on the back of an impressive 3-1 win over Zidane’s France. They will certainly be optimistic about their chances of avenging the defeat suffered in the opening game and securing the top spot in the group. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.
Team News & Tactics
Belgium
Romelu Lukaku remains a doubt for this fixture after missing the last game against Turkiye. However, they do have a boost as Romeo Lavia is back available after serving a suspension in their last outing.
Belgium are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with Senne Lammens continuing between the posts. Timothy Castagne and Maxim De Cuyper should occupy the full-back positions, while Nathan Ngoy and Brandon Mechele are likely to form the central defensive partnership.
Skipper Youri Tielemans and Romeo Lavia are expected to provide the midfield base, with Kevin De Bruyne operating further forward and dictating play.
Diego Moreira and Jeremy Doku should provide width and attacking threat from the flanks, while Charles De Ketelaere is likely to lead the line in Lukaku’s potential absence.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku
Italy
While Roberto Mancini remains without the services of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean due to injury, and Nicolo Zaniolo for personal reasons, he still has a host of young, talented players on rely on.
The Azzurri will also line up in a 4-3-3 formation, where skipper Gianluigi Donnarumma will take charge in goal. Michael Kayode should start at right-back, with Riccardo Calafiori operating on the opposite flank. Giorgio Scalvini and Alessandro Bastoni are likely to be the two central defenders.
In the centre of the park, Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi are expected to provide energy, creativity and control. While Tonali will shield the backline, the other two will look to progress the ball and create chances.
Antonio Vergara and Nicolo Cambiaghi should occupy the wide attacking positions, while Pio Esposito is likely to lead the line as the central striker.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, P. Esposito, Cambiaghi
Key Stats
- Belgium have conceded five goals in their last two Nations League outings, with four of them coming in their defeat to France.
- 21-year-old Pio Esposito is the first Italian player since Christian Vieri to score more than eight goals in his first 14 caps.
- Italy suffered a 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture during the previous international break.
- In the nine meetings between the two teams, Italy have won six, while Belgium have come out on top on just two occasions.
- The Red Devils have only won one out of their last six games against Italy.
Player to Watch
Diego Moreira
The 22-year-old Belgian winger is yet to score at the international level after eight caps, and he will certainly be eager to get his first goal for the national team when he takes the field against Italy. Given what is at stake, this could be Moreira’s night to shine.
He has made an impressive start to the season with seven goal contributions in as many league outings. He will look to carry that form into this fixture and play a big part in the end result.
Prediction
Belgium 2-2 Italy
Belgium and Italy have plenty at stake heading into this decisive encounter, and neither side is likely to take unnecessary risks. The hosts need all three points to keep their hopes of finishing top alive, while Italy have the advantage of knowing a draw could be enough to secure qualification.
However, both teams possess enough attacking quality to cause problems, and their previous meetings suggest this could be a closely contested affair.
Belgium will look to make the most of their home advantage, with Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Charles De Ketelaere offering plenty of creativity and attacking threat. Italy, meanwhile, have the midfield quality to compete with the hosts and will look to exploit spaces through Barella, Tonali and Frattesi.
With qualification on the line, the visitors may be slightly more cautious, but Belgium’s need for a win should make for an open contest. We expect both sides to find the net, but neither to do enough to claim all three points. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-2 draw in this fixture.
