Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United at Selhurst Park on Sunday will be a meeting between two managers under pressure in their new jobs.
Crystal Palace’s 5-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion has turned this meeting into more than an early-season fixture. Both sides now need a response before pressure becomes harder to contain. The hosts sit 14th with seven points, while Newcastle United are 11th with eight, and the result could steady one manager without removing the questions surrounding the other. The points matter to both, but neither side is forced into an all-or-nothing gamble.
For the home side, a win would ease the scrutiny on Pierre Sage and provide a direct answer to the defensive collapse against Brighton. A draw would stop the immediate slide but leave the concern intact, while another defeat would deepen the unease around a team that has already conceded 17 league goals.
Palace have scored seven and conceded 11 across their last five matches, a run that explains why a controlled response matters more than an open chase. They carry a 3-4-2-1 system that has remained constant, but the mood around it is fragile after the latest loss.
On the other hand, Newcastle United’s need is different. Matthias Jaissle’s side can move into the European places with a win, but defeat would leave them in the same lower-mid-table area and extend a sequence containing only one league victory in their last five.
The Magpies have scored four and conceded 10 across their last four matches. So, the priority is to avoid another chaotic game while still creating enough to win. Newcastle arrive with their confidence damaged, but their consistent 4-2-3-1 gives them a more stable reference point than Palace have had defensively.
Team News: Returning cover and a Newcastle midfield doubt
Crystal Palace have Chadi Riad out with a knee injury and Takehiro Tomiyasu unavailable because of a calf problem. Axel Disasi returns from suspension and starts at centre-back, giving the back three an additional defensive body after the humiliation against Brighton & Hove Albion.
Walter Benitez remains in goal amid uncertainties surrouniding Dean Henderson, with Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards completing the three-man defence; Richards has started all seven Premier League games and has played 630 minutes. Tyrick Mitchell should continue on the left wing, while Anan Khalaili supplies the width on the opposite side.
Mitchell has two goals and four shots on target from six attempts, making his attacking contribution unusually relevant for a wing-back. Adam Wharton starts in the right-sided central role and has 11 key passes, the highest total in the squad. Daichi Kamada fills the other midfield position, though his selection reflects the need to replace Quinten Timber, as the Japanese midfielder has reprised a more attacking role this season.
Palace’s attacking plan runs through Yeremy Pino and Ismaila Sarr behind Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Spaniard has eight key passes and two big chances created, while Sarr is slowly being reintegrated after a slow start to the season, much like Mateta. The selected formation is the familiar 3-4-2-1 rather than a change after the heavy defeat.
Probable Crystal Palace Starting Lineup (3-4-2-1): Benitez; Richards, Disasi, Canvot; Khalailli, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; McNeil, Pino; Mateta
Probable Newcastle United Starting Lineup (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Osula, Barnes; Wissa
Newcastle United have Valentino Livramento out with a knee injury. Dan Burn is a doubt with an ankle problem but should be in the matchday squad. Anthony Elanga, Jacob Ramsey, and Matias Fernández-Pardo remain doubtful for different fitness reasons, and William Osula is returning from a foot injury. Joelinton’s status matters because Newcastle need him to preserve the double pivot rather than reshuffle the midfield.
Lukas Hornicek starts behind a back four of Lewis Hall, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw, and Lewis Miley. Hall has nine key passes and one assist, while Botman has started all seven of his appearances and adds a reliable left-sided defensive presence.
Nico Gonzalez partners Joelinton in midfield; he has two goals from 16 shots, although only three were on target. Joe Willock operates centrally behind Yoane Wissa, with Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy providing the wide support. Barnes leads Newcastle for key passes with 12 and has added two assists, while Wissa has one goal and one assist as the lone striker.
Tactics: Palace’s narrow attack vs Newcastle’s double pivot
Crystal Palace’s 3-4-2-1 setup keeps Yeremy Pino and Ismaila Sarr close to Jean-Philippe Mateta while retaining three defenders behind the ball. It is designed to let them push forward without asking the reshuffled defence to cover the whole pitch. That suits a team seeking the win but willing to protect a point, although the shape will only work if the two attacking midfielders can remain involved without leaving Wharton exposed.
Their profile points to a side that generally accepts less possession and produces fewer attempts. Palace average 43% of the ball against a league typical-figure of 49.5%, while Newcastle average 49% against the same norm The Eagles also shoot 10 times per match compared to Newcastle’s 11, with the league-typical figure at 13.
Newcastle carry more of the ball and take on opponents more often, averaging 15 dribbles to Palace’s 11 against a typical 14.5. The practical question is whether the home side can make their limited possession count before Newcastle settle the game around their double pivot. Newcastle’s 4-2-3-1 system gives Nico Gonzalez and Joelinton a layer of protection behind Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, and Jacob Murphy.
It is a balanced away shape. Newcastle should look for the win, but they can bank a draw rather than open the match unnecessarily. Their lower shooting volume means they are unlikely to overwhelm Palace simply through pressure, and the side’s defensive record makes excessive commitment dangerous. The hosts’ back three will be tested when Newcastle hold the ball, but the Magpies must also stop Yeremy Pino and Ismaila Sarr from receiving between the lines.
That is where the wider system contest begins. Newcastle’s steadier possession base can force Crystal Palace’s attacking midfielders into a choice: stay high beside Mateta and expose the spaces beside the back three, or drop deeper and leave the striker isolated. Palace’s push therefore depends on Adam Wharton connecting the defence to the front three without losing the central protection that the formation was selected to provide.
The main duel is Yeremy Pino against Jacob Murphy. The Spaniard is Palace’s in-form left-sided creator, while Murphy must balance defensive work with keeping Newcastle’s own right attacking lane active. If Yeremy wins that channel, the away side may need to consider the more aggressive 4-4-2 alternative and risk losing the compact three behind Yoane Wissa.
If Murphy controls it, Palace lose an important outlet and may retreat into a deeper version of their shape instead of sustaining attacks. The space behind the duel matters. Yeremy is not simply trying to beat Murphy; he is trying to pull Newcastle’s right-sided protection away from Mateta and the central lane.
Murphy, meanwhile, cannot follow him so far that Newcastle lose their attacking connection. The central contest between Wharton and Gonzalez adds another layer. If the Englishman controls the screen, Palace can keep both attacking midfielders high; if Gonzalez disrupts him, the hosts may need an extra central midfielder and Newcastle can preserve their double-pivot balance.
Prediction: A draw is the safer reading of two exposed defences
We predict a draw, but only with low confidence. Neither side has a clear stakes advantage, and both are expected to pursue the win without treating a point as a failure. That makes the opening likely to be controlled, yet the defensive exposure on both sides means control could disappear after one mistake.
Crystal Palace’s home setting and Yeremy Pino’s attacking influence give them a route to win, especially if they can move Newcastle’s right-sided protection and keep Adam Wharton facing forward. Newcastle’s stronger possession base is the strongest argument against a Palace result, but their own limited shot volume and uncertain midfield availability make them difficult to trust as an away favourite.
Lean: Draw
Range: 1-1/2-2/1-2
The more likely match is one in which each side creates danger without establishing enough defensive authority to close the game. Palace have averaged 1.31 xG and 1.91 xGA in their last five, while Newcastle have averaged 1.42 for and 1.76 against in their last four.
Palace have kept one clean sheet in that period and Newcastle none. Those figures support a tense, error-prone game in the 1-1, 2-2 or 1-2 range rather than a strongly bankable home or away win.
The change Palace can make if the middle is lost
Crystal Palace have a clear in-game lever if Newcastle United begin controlling the central screen: they can switch to a 4-2-3-1 and add another central midfielder. That would reduce the space available around Mateta, but it would give the home side greater protection and allow them to stay in the contest without turning every Newcastle possession into a defensive emergency.
