Bolton Wanderers will look to build on an encouraging run of form when they welcome promotion-chasing Middlesbrough to the Toughsheet Community Stadium on Friday night.
Bolton have responded well after their difficult home defeat to Stoke City, taking four points from demanding away trips to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton. Middlesbrough, meanwhile, remain firmly in the promotion picture after extending their unbeaten Championship run to nine matches.
With Bolton still searching for consistency at home and Middlesbrough carrying a remarkable recent record in this fixture, Friday’s contest presents an interesting clash between a newly promoted side growing in confidence and an established promotion contender.
Bolton’s return to the Championship has not been straightforward, but Steven Schumacher’s team are beginning to demonstrate that they can compete at this level. A 3-1 victory at Wolverhampton Wanderers was followed by a goalless draw away to Southampton, giving Bolton four points from two extremely challenging fixtures. They have lost only once in their last five matches and collected 10 points during that period.
The defensive improvement has been particularly encouraging. The clean sheet at Southampton was Bolton’s third of the campaign and came after an impressive collective performance in which Lewis Brunt was named man of the match and the bigger issue remains their home form.
Bolton have lost three of their last four home fixtures, meaning Schumacher will need his players to reproduce the organisation and intensity they have shown on the road. At 15th in the Championship, Bolton have created a six-point cushion over the relegation zone. A victory would strengthen that position considerably and potentially move them towards the upper half of the table.
History, however, is not particularly kind to the hosts as Bolton have not beaten Middlesbrough since a Championship victory in April 2013, while Boro have won each of the last nine competitive meetings between the clubs.
Meanwhile, Middlesbrough arrive with considerably greater ambitions. Kim Hellberg’s side have gone nine Championship matches unbeaten, winning five and drawing four, and currently sit third with 22 points. Their latest result was a 2-2 draw with Cardiff City, but the performance demonstrated one of Boro’s greatest strengths: the quality available from the bench.
The ability to alter matches through substitutions could again prove significant against Bolton, particularly if the contest becomes physically demanding. There is one caveat to Middlesbrough’s excellent campaign. Only eight of their 22 points have come away from home. Nevertheless, they have lost only once in five league away games, winning two and drawing two. They therefore remain extremely difficult to beat even when they are not producing their best football.
Bolton are likely to prioritise defensive compactness rather than attempting to match Middlesbrough’s possession and attacking depth. They will also look to transition quickly. Their recent away performances suggest that they are capable of being dangerous when they win the ball and attack before the opposition can reorganise.
The visitors will likely try to control the midfield before progressively pushing their full-backs higher. The key tactical question is whether Bolton can prevent Middlesbrough’s attacking midfielders from receiving between the lines.
If Riley McGree and Amario Cozier-Duberry find space behind Bolton’s midfield five, the hosts could spend long periods defending close to their own penalty area. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton will continue to be without Chris Forino-Joseph, who has missed the last five matches with a groin injury and is not expected back until early November. However, Lewis Brunt has done enough to retain his place after his outstanding performance at Southampton. He should pair up with captain Eoin Toal at the heart of the defence.
Steven Schumacher could make attacking changes, with Ruben Rodrigues and Theo Bair pushing for starting roles. The expected 4-2-3-1 gives Bolton considerable midfield protection, but the wide players will need to work hard defensively against Middlesbrough’s attacking rotations.
Bolton’s priority should be to keep the game compact for as long as possible. Their best performances recently have come when they have limited the opposition’s opportunities and then attacked quickly in transition.
The presence of Rodrigues between midfield and attack could therefore be crucial. If he can turn and carry the ball forward, Bolton can avoid becoming overly dependent on direct passes towards Sam Dalby.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Stephenson, Toal, Brunt, Famewo; Simons, Sheehan; Larrazabal, Rodrigues, Gale; Dalby
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have several absentees to manage as David Strelec continues to recover from a muscular injury, while Rokas Pukstas remains sidelined after making only 12 minutes of competitive football since joining from Hajduk Split. Centre-back Alfie Jones is also unavailable with a calf problem.
The positive news is the continued emergence of Will Lankshear and Tommy Conway, who both scored against Cardiff City. Lankshear, signed from Tottenham in the summer, is expected to lead the attack again, with Conway operating from a wider position.
Middlesbrough’s midfield should be their main source of control with Amario Cozier-Duberry and Tommy Conway offering attacking movement around Lankshear. Lankshear’s role is especially important. He can occupy the centre-backs and provide a target for crosses, but his movement away from the defensive line can also create space for Riley McGree and the wide attackers to exploit.
Boro’s ability to change matches from the bench is another significant advantage. Their comeback against Cardiff demonstrated that Hellberg has multiple attacking solutions available even when the initial plan fails.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Vitek; Brittain, Malanda, Phillips, Borges; Berhalter, Morris; Cozier-Duberry, McGree, Conway; Lankshear
Key Stats
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last nine Championship matches, recording five wins and four draws.
- Middlesbrough have won the last nine competitive meetings with Bolton, with their last defeat in this fixture coming in August 2014.
- Bolton Wanderers have lost only one of their last five matches, collecting 10 points during that run.
- Middlesbrough have lost just once in five Championship away games this season, winning two and drawing two.
- Only eight of Middlesbrough’s 22 Championship points have come away from home.
Player to Watch
Will Lankshear
The in-form English striker has become an increasingly important part of Boro’s attack and demonstrated his value again against Cardiff, scoring during the second-half comeback.
His physical presence gives Middlesbrough a genuine focal point, but it is his movement that could cause Bolton the greatest problems. If Lankshear can pull the centre-backs away from their positions, it will create space for Riley McGree, Amario Cozier-Duberry, and Tommy Conway to attack around him.
Bolton’s compact 4-5-1 is designed to deny central spaces, so Lankshear’s ability to occupy the defenders while also creating room for runners could be decisive. With Middlesbrough possessing considerable attacking depth, Bolton cannot afford to focus exclusively on the striker. But if Lankshear wins his individual battle with the Bolton centre-backs, Boro should have enough quality around him to exploit the openings.
Prediction
Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Middlesbrough
Bolton Wanderers have shown genuine improvement over the past week, particularly defensively, and playing at home should give them confidence after taking four points from their last two away fixtures. However, Middlesbrough’s nine-match unbeaten league run, superior squad depth and extraordinary record against Bolton make the visitors difficult to oppose.
Bolton should make this competitive if they can remain compact and frustrate Boro early, but Middlesbrough have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to find solutions during difficult matches.