Belgium will welcome France to the King Baudouin Stadium on Monday for a UEFA Nations League A meeting between two sides beginning new managerial eras.
Both teams opened the campaign with victories, but they arrive with contrasting storylines. Belgium earned a convincing 2-0 win over Italy in Mark van Bommel’s first match, while France edged past Turkey 1-0 in Zinedine Zidane’s maiden game at the helm. The biggest talking point for the visitors, however, is the absence of Kylian Mbappe after the Real Madrid forward suffered a knee injury.
Belgium’s first competitive match under van Bommel could hardly have gone much better from a results perspective. The Red Devils defeated Italy 2-0 on Friday, with Mika Godts opening the scoring in the first half before Dodi Lukebakio added the second after the interval.
The clean sheet was particularly encouraging as Belgium had gone four consecutive matches without shutting out an opponent before facing Italy, so preventing one of Europe’s strongest attacking sides from scoring will have pleased Van Bommel. It was also Belgium’s first victory under their new manager and provides a platform from which the Dutchman can begin establishing his ideas. There are, however, considerably greater demands awaiting them on Monday.
France possess one of the deepest squads in international football, and van Bommel’s first home fixture will immediately put his defensive organisation under considerable pressure. The Belgian record at home does provide encouragement. The Red Devils have gone nine matches unbeaten as the nominal home side, winning six of those games.
Their recent record against France is a very different story as Belgium have lost their last five meetings with Les Bleus, with their last victory coming in June 2015. Ending that sequence would therefore represent another significant milestone for van Bommel.
France also began the post-Deschamps era with three points as Zidane’s first match in charge ended in a 1-0 victory over Turkey, with Mbappe scoring the only goal of the game. The result was important, but the performance left room for improvement as France controlled 64% possession, yet generated only 1.17 expected goals, slightly fewer than Turkey’s 1.21.
Zidane’s team had plenty of the ball without consistently turning their territorial advantage into clear-cut opportunities. That issue becomes even more interesting on Monday because Mbappe will not be available. The Real Madrid forward suffered a knee injury shortly after scoring against Turkey and is expected to miss several weeks.
Mbappe’s absence removes France’s most prolific attacking outlet and forces Zidane to adjust his forward line. Fortunately for France, the squad contains plenty of alternatives capable of taking responsibility. France have won eight and drawn one of their last nine matches as the away team and that sequence demonstrates how comfortable Les Bleus have been operating outside France, even though Monday’s opponent represents a significantly different challenge from Turkey.
Belgium’s home record means France cannot expect an easy evening. The Red Devils have not lost as the nominal home side since November 2024, and van Bommel will be keen to maintain that record in his first match in front of the Belgian supporters.
Recent history strongly favours France amd Belgium have lost five consecutive meetings with Les Bleus, stretching back to their last victory in 2015. That sequence includes some particularly significant encounters. France defeated Belgium in the 2018 World Cup semi-final and again in the 2021 Nations League semi-final, demonstrating how frequently these fixtures have carried high stakes.
The historical advantage will give France confidence, although Belgium’s current home form suggests past results cannot simply be carried into Monday’s contest. The home side’s victory over Italy demonstrated the value of defensive discipline and they will likely need a similar approach against France, particularly during periods when the visitors dominate possession.
The hosts should also look to make use of their attacking transitions. If France push their full-backs forward, Belgium may find space to exploit behind them. The home crowd could be another important factor, particularly if Belgium can stay in the contest during the opening stages.
For Zidane, the challenge is finding attacking solutions without Mbappe. France cannot simply expect individual brilliance to settle the contest, meaning their attacking structure and movement will be important. They will also need to improve their efficiency compared with the Turkey game. Having 64% possession but producing only 1.17 xG suggests that controlling the ball did not necessarily translate into enough dangerous chances.
Against a Belgium side that has just kept Italy scoreless, France may need to be more incisive. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Belgium
Belgium will be without Leandro Trossard, who continues to recover from a heel problem. His absence removes a versatile attacking option, but Mika Godts is expected to take up the left-sided role in the attacking three.
Kevin De Bruyne should operate centrally behind Charles De Ketelaere, with Diego Moreira completing the attacking midfield trio. De Bruyne’s role could be particularly important because Belgium will need someone capable of finding pockets between France’s midfield and defensive lines. The veteran midfielder has also made clear that he remains committed to international football and is expected to continue playing a leading role under Mark van Bommel.
At the back, Nathan Ngoy is expected to partner Brandon Mechele at centre-back, with Timothy Castagne and Maxim De Cuyper operating as the full-backs. Belgium are expected to retain their 4-2-3-1, with Senne Lammens in goal and Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans forming the midfield double pivot.
The interesting aspect of Belgium’s setup is the relationship between De Bruyne, Godts. and Moreira. Rather than keeping the attacking midfielders rigidly in their starting positions, Belgium can allow them to interchange and attempt to pull France’s defensive structure apart.
Godts can provide width on the left before cutting inside, while Moreira can attack from the opposite side. That should create space for De Bruyne to operate centrally. The Raskin-Tielemans double pivot will also have an important defensive responsibility. France have considerable pace and attacking quality, so Belgium cannot afford to allow the midfield to become disconnected from the back four.
There is also a potential opportunity for Belgium in transition. If France push their full-backs forward, the spaces behind them could be targeted quickly through Godts and Moreira. Belgium’s 2-0 victory over Italy in their opening Nations League match provides some early evidence that van Bommel’s team can combine compact defending with quick attacking transitions. Against France, however, maintaining that balance for the full 90 minutes will be considerably more demanding.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Raskin; Moreira, De Bruyne, Godts; De Ketelaere
France
France will be without Kylian Mbappe after the captain suffered a knee injury shortly after scoring the winner against Türkiye. His absence gives Ousmane Dembele an opportunity to lead the attack from a central position, with Michael Olise and Desire Doue expected to provide width and attacking support.
France are expected to use a 4-3-3 formation, with Mike Maignan in goal and Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, Maxence Lacroix, and Adrien Truffert forming the back four. In midfield, Rayan Cherki could operate in a more advanced creative role alongside Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot.
Cherki’s ability to receive between the lines could be particularly important against a Belgium side expected to use Kevin De Bruyne centrally behind the striker. The biggest tactical change is likely to come from Ousmane Dembele moving into the centre. Rather than attempting to replace Mbappe like-for-like, France can use Dembele’s movement to pull Belgium’s centre-backs away from their preferred positions.
That could create space for Olise and Doue to attack from the flanks. Both can cut inside, which may give France several players operating in the central attacking areas rather than relying exclusively on a traditional No. 9. Cherki could also become an important link between midfield and attack. If he finds space behind Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans, France could create numerical advantages around the Belgian penalty area.
The midfield balance will be equally important. Kone should provide the defensive cover that allows Cherki and Rabiot greater freedom, while France will need to prevent Kevin De Bruyne from receiving the ball comfortably between the lines.
France may therefore look to press Belgium’s build-up aggressively, particularly when De Bruyne drops deeper to receive possession. If they can force Belgium into hurried passes, Dembele’s pace and the movement of Olise and Doué could make the transition particularly dangerous.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert; Cherki, Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Dembele, Doue
Key Stats
- Belgium are unbeaten in their last nine matches as the nominal home side, winning six of those games.
- France have won their last five meetings with Belgium, including a 2-0 Nations League victory in September 2024.
- Belgium opened the Nations League with a 2-0 win over Italy, their first clean sheet in five matches.
- France began Zinedine Zidane’s reign with a 1-0 victory over Turkiye, with Kylian Mbappé scoring the decisive goal before subsequently suffering his knee injury.
- France have won eight of their last nine matches as the away team, drawing the other.
Player to Watch
Kevin De Bruyne
The veteran playmaker remains the central creative figure in Mark van Bommel’s side and is expected to operate in the No. 10 role behind Charles De Ketelaere. He has 124 international caps and remains a key part of Belgium’s plans after confirming his intention to continue playing for the national team.
De Bruyne’s ability to receive between France’s midfield and defence could be crucial. With Rayan Cherki, Manu Kone, and Adrien Rabiot expected to form France’s midfield, De Bruyne will need to find pockets of space and exploit them quickly.
He also offers Belgium an important threat from set pieces and long-range situations. With Kylian Mbappe absent for France, De Bruyne’s creativity could become even more significant in determining how Belgium approach the attacking phase.
Prediction
Belgium 1-2 France
Belgium’s nine-match unbeaten home run, their encouraging victory over Italy and Mark van Bommel’s positive start make this a genuinely difficult away assignment for France. The visitors, though, have an outstanding away record and have dominated this fixture in recent years.
Even without Kylian Mbappe, France possess enough attacking quality to create problems for Belgium. The absence of Mbappe could make the match considerably closer than previous encounters, but France’s overall depth and recent record in this fixture give them the edge.
