Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United: Preview and Prediction

Qarabag FK and Newcastle United will aim to take a step closer to the UEFA Champions League round of 16 when they clash at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium on Wednesday.

The UEFA Champions League knockout round playoffs will reach their midway point on Wednesday. The action on the day will start with Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium before ending with three simultaneous fixtures.

Qarabag FK qualified for the UEFA Champions League knockout round playoff after finishing 22nd in the opening phase. The Azerbaijani outfit had to reach that stage by going through three qualifying rounds and began the main draw with two successive wins.

However, Gurban Gurbanov’s men managed only one more win in the six subsequent matches, thus dropping to 22nd in the standings. That form has also reflected in Qarabag’s performances in the Premier League, as they have dropped to second on the table after losing two of their last six outings.

On the other hand, Newcastle United endured a topsy-turvy ride in the opening phase of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League. The Magpies were in the top eight heading into the final matchday after losing only one game following the opening night defeat to Barcelona.

However, Eddie Howe’s men dropped to 12th in the standings after a 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain in their final outing. The away side’s form in the Premier League has been even worse, as they have won only one of their last five top-flight matches, with the poor run of form leaving them tenth on the table.

Wednesday’s match will be the first-ever match featuring Qarabag FK and Newcastle United, and The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the maiden meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Qarabag FK

Gurban Gurbanov has new injury concerns hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixture. The Qarabag FK manager will be bereft of the services of only one first-team player vs Newcastle United on Wednesday.

Shakhruddin Magomedaliyev remains in the treatment room for the foreseeable future, but Gurbanov has a fully-fit squad apart from the 31-year-old goalkeeper. Meanwhile, Kady Borges is available, as his suspension only applies to the Premier League.

Mateusz Kochalski will take his spot between the sticks, with Qarabag lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs Newcastle United on Wednesday. The backline will feature Matheus Silva, Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, and Elvin Cafarguliyev.

As for the midfield unit, Pedro Bicalho and Marko Jankovic will pair up in the double pivot. Joni Montiel will reprise the no. 10 role, with Leandro Andrade and Abdellah Zoubir being the two wide attackers. Finally, Camilo Duran will lead the line for Qarabag against Newcastle United on Wednesday.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Cafarguliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran

Newcastle United

Unlike his counterpart in the Qarabag FK dugout, Eddie Howe has several issues to worry about ahead of the trip to the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. The Newcastle United manager may be without over half a dozen first-team players on Wednesday.

Valentino Livramento (hamstring), Fabian Schar (ankle), and Bruno Guimaraes (hamstring) remain in the treatment room. Additionally, Sven Botman (back), Joelinton (groin), Lewis Miley (dead leg), and Yoane Wissa (knock) face late fitness tests to determine their availability.

Nick Pope is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Newcastle United lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs Qarabag FK on Wednesday. The backline will feature Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, and Lewis Hall.

As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Jacob Ramsey and Sandro Tonali in the double pivot. Joe Willock will reprise the no. 10 role, with Anthony Elanga and Anthony Gordon being the two wide attackers. Finally, Nick Woltemade will spearhead the Newcastle United attack against Qarabag on Wednesday.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall; Ramsey, Tonali; Elanga, Willock, Gordon; Woltemade

Key Stats

  • Wednesday’s match will be the tenth European meeting between sides from Azerbaijan and England (all involving Qarabag), with the English outfits unbeaten and winning on eight occasions (D1). Meanwhile, Qarabag are winless in four home games against English clubs in Europe, losing and failing to score in three of those. However, they avoided defeat in the most recent game, drawing 2-2 with Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League this season.
  • Qarabag won their opening two games in the UEFA Champions League this season (3-2 vs SL Benfica and 2-0 vs FC Copenhagen). However, since then, they have won only one of their six matches (D1 L4).
  • Qarabag have conceded two or more goals in their last six UEFA Champions League ties. Only Kairat Almaty (22), who finished bottom of the table, have let in more than the Azerbaijani side (21) in this edition.
  • Newcastle United have won four UEFA Champions League games in 2025/26; if they win on Wednesday, Eddie Howe will have the joint-most victories by an English manager in an edition, along with five by Bobby Robson in 2002/03 (with Newcastle United) and Graham Potter in 2022/23 (with Chelsea).
  • 76% of Newcastle United’s goals in the UEFA Champions League this season have featured one of Anthony Gordon or Harvey Barnes as the scorer and/or assister (13/17). Gordon has six goals and two assists, while Barnes has five goals and one assist (they combined for one goal v Benfica, netted by Barnes/assisted by Gordon).
  • Bruno Guimaraes has made 13 defensive line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season, at least twice as many as any other Newcastle United player (6 by Sandro Tonali and Kieran Trippier). Overall, Joshua Kimmich (16) and Joey Veerman (15) were the only players who made more than the Brazilian in this season’s league phase.

Player to Watch

Camilo Duran

Embed from Getty Images

While Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon, and Leandro Andrade were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Camilo Duran as the Player to Watch for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Newcastle United at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.

The 24-year-old attacker has netted four goals in the UEFA Champions League this season; the only Colombian players to score more in an edition are Jackson Martinez (7 in 2014/15 for FC Porto) and Radamel Falcao (5 in 2016/17 for AS Monaco). Duran will aim to usurp his compatriots in his next two outings, and he will be the go-to player for Gurban Gurbanov.

Prediction

Qarabag FK 1-1 Newcastle United

Qarabag may have slipped up in recent weeks, but the hosts will fancy their prospects against a vulnerable Newcastle United backline. The Magpies have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven successive games, and their defensive woes should continue on Wednesday.

Additionally, the visitors have been inconsistent scorers throughout the 2025/26 season, and those issues will resurface in the midweek UEFA Champions League clash. So, a closely-contested affair is on the cards, and The Hard Tackle predicts a 1-1 draw for Wednesday’s match.

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