SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909: Preview and Prediction

Napoli will face Bologna in the Supercoppa Italiana final in Riyadh on Monday night.

The Supercoppa Italiana reaches its climax on Monday evening as reigning Serie A champions Napoli face Coppa Italia holders Bologna at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh. After both sides navigated past Milanese opposition in the semi-finals, this final represents a fascinating clash of contrasting momentum, styles, and recent history.

Napoli arrive in Saudi Arabia with renewed confidence after a controlled and professional 2-0 victory over AC Milan in Thursday’s semi-final. Antonio Conte’s side struck at key moments and then expertly managed the game, underlining their growing comfort in knockout football.

David Neres broke the deadlock shortly before half-time, and once Rasmus Hojlund finished off a swift counter-attack after the interval, Napoli were able to shut down proceedings with minimal fuss. That win ensured the Partenopei remained in Riyadh and kept alive their bid for a third Supercoppa triumph, having previously lifted the trophy in 1990 and 2014.

As reigning Scudetto holders, Napoli are keen to add further silverware to last season’s historic title success, even if their form leading into the tournament was far from convincing. Indeed, Napoli travelled east after suffering consecutive defeats in Serie A and the Champions League, losing to Benfica and Udinese and abruptly ending a five-match winning streak.

Those results highlighted ongoing issues away from home, with seven defeats on the road already this season. By contrast, their Supercoppa performances have offered a timely reminder of their ability to execute Conte’s game plan when the stakes are highest. Standing in their way are a Bologna side who have quietly become one of Napoli’s most awkward opponents.

Just last month, Vincenzo Italiano’s team outplayed Napoli 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, extending a recent run in which the Azzurri have won just once in their last six meetings with the Rossoblu. That represents a dramatic shift after Bologna had previously lost five straight encounters.

Italiano, who recently marked his 200th Serie A match as a head coach with victory over Napoli, is no stranger to cup football. Last season, he masterminded Bologna’s Coppa Italia final win over Milan, delivering the club’s first major trophy in 51 years and securing their place in this Supercoppa. Friday’s semi-final against Inter Milan further underlined Bologna’s resilience on the big stage.

After conceding early, Bologna responded through Riccardo Orsolini’s penalty and then held firm before edging past Inter in a scrappy shootout. That result booked Bologna’s first-ever Supercoppa final and continued Italiano’s remarkable run of cup appearances, with this set to be his fifth final in four years.

Domestically, Bologna remain well placed, sitting sixth in Serie A and firmly in the mix for Europa League progression. However, recent form raises some concerns. The Rossoblu have taken just one point from their last three league matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive games across all competitions, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that Napoli will look to exploit.

This final, therefore, sets up as a compelling battle between Napoli’s growing efficiency in knockout settings and Bologna’s recent psychological edge in the head-to-head. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

SSC Napoli

Napoli head into the Supercoppa Italiana final with a relatively settled squad but limited flexibility in key areas. Antonio Conte rotated his lineup for Thursday’s semi-final win over AC Milan, resting regular starters Alessandro Buongiorno and Sam Beukema, and both defenders are now pushing to return to the starting XI as Napoli revert to their strongest available backline.

In midfield, options remain restricted. While Stanislav Lobotka has recently returned to action and is expected to start again, Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa and Billy Gilmour are all unavailable, leaving Conte with little room for rotation in central areas. There are no suspension concerns for the Partenopei. The outlook is more encouraging in attack.

Romelu Lukaku was included on the bench against AC Milan after four months out injured, offering Conte a powerful option late in the game if required. However, the Belgian striker is not yet ready to start, meaning Rasmus Hojlund will continue to spearhead the attack. The Danish forward has been in excellent form, registering nine goal involvements across all competitions this season and scoring in the semi-final to underline his importance.

From a tactical perspective, Napoli are expected to line up in their familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, built on defensive structure and quick transitions. Vanja Milinkovic-Savic should start in goal, providing physical presence and shot-stopping ability. The back three is likely to consist of Sam Beukema on the right, Amir Rrahmani operating centrally as the organiser, and Alessandro Buongiorno on the left, offering balance and aggression.

In midfield, Giovanni Di Lorenzo is expected to play as the right wing-back, contributing leadership and forward runs, while Leonardo Spinazzola operates on the left, tasked with providing width and delivery. Stanislav Lobotka should anchor the centre of midfield, dictating tempo and recycling possession, alongside Scott McTominay, whose energy, physicality and late runs into the box add an extra dimension.

Ahead of them, Noa Lang and David Neres are likely to operate as the two attacking midfielders, drifting inside to support the striker and exploit space between the lines. Rasmus Hojlund is set to lead the line as the lone centre-forward.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic; Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Lang, Neres; Hojlund

SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909: Preview and Prediction.

Bologna FC 1909

Bologna head into the Supercoppa Italiana final dealing with several fitness setbacks that will test their depth, particularly in midfield, defence, and goal. Remo Freuler remains unavailable, depriving Vincenzo Italiano of experience and control in central areas, while first-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski also misses out, ensuring Federico Ravaglia continues between the posts.

Federico Bernardeschi was forced off during Friday’s semi-final with a collarbone injury and has been ruled out, removing an experienced attacking option from the bench. At the back, Nicolo Casale is unavailable, while both Jhon Lucumi and Martin Vitik are not fully fit and will be assessed closely, adding uncertainty to Bologna’s defensive setup. There are no suspension issues, but Italiano must again juggle selection carefully.

Despite his reputation for frequent rotation, Italiano is expected to show trust in Santiago Castro, who should continue to lead the line. The Argentine striker is favoured ahead of Ciro Immobile, who scored the decisive penalty against Inter, and Thijs Dallinga, who found the net in Bologna’s recent league victory over Napoli. Castro’s mobility and pressing are seen as better suited to Bologna’s approach against a Napoli side that thrives on transitions.

From a tactical standpoint, Bologna are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to remain compact while offering threat through wide areas and quick combinations between the lines. Federico Ravaglia should start in goal, protected by a back four featuring Emil Holm at right-back and Juan Miranda at left-back. In central defence, Torbjorn Heggem is expected to start, with Jhon Lucumi likely to partner him if deemed fit.

In midfield, Nikola Moro and Lewis Ferguson should form the double pivot, combining ball progression with defensive discipline. Ahead of them, Riccardo Orsolini is expected to operate on the right wing, providing Bologna’s primary attacking spark, while Jens Odgaard plays centrally as the number ten, linking midfield and attack.

Nicolo Cambiaghi should start from the left flank, offering pace and direct running. Santiago Castro is set to lead the line for Bologna against Napoli as the lone striker, tasked with occupying Napoli’s back three and capitalising on any defensive lapses.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia; Holm, Lucumi, Heggem, Miranda; Moro, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Castro

SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Napoli have won the Supercoppa Italiana twice before, lifting the trophy in 1990 and 2014, while this is Bologna’s first-ever appearance in the competition.
  • Bologna have lost just one of their last six competitive matches against Napoli, including a 2-0 Serie A victory at the Stadio Dall’Ara last month.
  • Napoli have scored in every match of this Supercoppa campaign so far, conceding just once across their two games in Saudi Arabia.
  • Bologna have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive matches across all competitions heading into the final.
  • Rasmus Hojlund has registered nine goal involvements for Napoli in all competitions this season, including a goal in the Supercoppa semi-final.

Player to Watch

Scott McTominay

Embed from Getty Images

The Scottish star could prove to be a pivotal figure for Napoli in the Supercoppa Italiana final, particularly given the absences in central midfield. With limited options available to Conte, McTominay is expected to shoulder significant responsibility in both phases of play. His physical presence, tactical discipline, and ability to cover large areas of the pitch make him a key component in Napoli’s structure.

McTominay’s value goes beyond defensive solidity. He offers a genuine threat arriving late into the box, excels in aerial duels, and provides intensity during transitions, all crucial in a final likely to be decided by fine margins. Against a Bologna side that presses aggressively but has shown defensive vulnerability in recent weeks, McTominay’s box-to-box influence could tilt the balance in Napoli’s favour.

Prediction

SSC Napoli 2-1 Bologna FC 1909

Bologna’s organisation and recent success against Napoli suggest this final will be competitive, but Napoli’s greater efficiency in big matches and the cutting edge provided by Rasmis Hojlund could prove decisive. Expect a tight contest in Riyadh, with Napoli’s midfield control and counter-attacking threat edging them to Supercoppa glory.

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