Chelsea will hope to come away with a win when they face Cardiff City in the EFL Cup quarter final on Tuesday.
A place in the EFL Cup semi-finals is up for grabs on Tuesday night, as Cardiff City welcome Chelsea to the Welsh capital. It is a classic cup tie in every sense: an underdog in form, a heavyweight searching for rhythm, and the promise of drama that knockout football so often delivers.
Chelsea’s presence at this stage of the competition is hardly a surprise, but the path they have taken has raised a few eyebrows. Enzo Maresca’s side have progressed by the narrowest of margins so far, edging past Lincoln City 2-1 before surviving a chaotic fourth-round encounter against Wolverhampton Wanderers. That 4-3 win should have been routine after Chelsea raced into a three-goal lead, but a late collapse nearly turned it into a disaster.
Ultimately, though, results matter more than aesthetics in knockout football, and the Blues remain on course for another deep cup run. Despite recent turbulence, history is firmly on Chelsea’s side.
The West London club have won each of their last five EFL Cup quarter-final matches since being eliminated by Sunderland in the 2013/14 season, and they are aiming to reach the semi-finals for the fifth time in nine campaigns. Momentum has also returned domestically, with Saturday’s 2-0 Premier League victory over Everton bringing an end to a four-match winless run.
That result was aided by the return of Cole Palmer, though it was followed by an unusually fiery press conference from Maresca, who spoke candidly about a difficult few days behind the scenes. In stark contrast, Cardiff City arrive riding a wave of confidence.
Brian Barry-Murphy’s side are enjoying a remarkable run of form and are now just one win away from their first League Cup semi-final appearance in 13 years. The Bluebirds have already defied expectations by knocking out higher-ranked opposition, becoming the lowest-placed team left in the competition.
Cardiff City’s cup journey has been nothing short of impressive. After navigating early ties against Swindon Town and Cheltenham Town, they stunned Premier League side Burnley with a 2-1 victory at Turf Moor before repeating the scoreline against Wrexham in the fourth round.
This marks only the third time Cardiff have reached the quarter-finals of the League Cup, and remarkably, they boast a perfect record at this stage of the competition. That belief is reinforced by their league form. A thrilling 4-3 win over Doncaster Rovers at the weekend extended their winning streak in League One to three matches and marked six victories in their last seven games across all competitions.
As a result, Cardiff City now hold a four-point lead at the top of the table, underlining the momentum and confidence coursing through the squad ahead of this high-profile encounter. There is also a historical footnote to fuel hope among the home fans.
Cardiff’s last victory over Chelsea came in this very competition back in 1986. Since then, the Blues have won the last five meetings between the sides, most recently a 2-1 Premier League victory at Cardiff City Stadium in 2019. While history favours Chelsea, cup football has a habit of bending narratives. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Team News & Tactics
Cardiff City
The Welsh side head into Tuesday night’s quarter-final facing several notable absentees in attacking and defensive areas. Omari Kellyman will not be available to face his parent club, with Chelsea declining Cardiff’s request to allow the on-loan playmaker to feature.
His absence is compounded by the continued unavailability of Rubin Colwill, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury and is expected to miss another couple of months. The double setback in the number-10 role significantly reduces Cardiff City’s creative options between the lines.
In defence, Gabriel Osho is ruled out with a toe injury, while winger Ollie Tanner will also miss this fixture as he continues his recovery from an ankle problem. There are no suspension concerns for the Bluebirds, and Tanner’s return to full training suggests he could be back in contention early in the New Year.
With key creators unavailable, Brian Barry-Murphy is expected to adjust his attacking structure, likely restoring Joel Colwill to a more advanced role to help compensate for the loss of invention. Cardiff’s approach is expected to prioritise energy, width, and quick transitions, rather than sustained possession, particularly against a Chelsea side likely to dominate the ball.
Tactically, Cardiff are set to line up in a 4-3-3 formation designed to remain compact while allowing direct attacking outlets. Nathan Trott is expected to start in goal, tasked with organising the defence and dealing with sustained pressure. The back four should see Perry Ng at right-back and Joel Bagan on the left, both balancing defensive duties with support down the flanks. In central defence, Will Fish is likely to partner Calum Chambers, combining mobility with experience.
In midfield, Ryan Wintle is expected to anchor the centre, providing defensive cover and recycling possession. He should be supported by Alex Robertson and David Turnbull, who will be tasked with pressing, breaking up play, and supporting attacks when possible.
In the front three, Cian Ashford is likely to operate from the right wing, offering pace and direct running, while Yousef Salech leads the line as the central striker. Joel Colwill is expected to start on the left flank, providing creativity and link-up play in the final third.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Trott; Ng, Fish, Chambers, Bagan; Wintle, Robertson, Turnbull; Ashford, Salech, Joel Colwill
Chelsea
Chelsea arrive in Cardiff expected to rotate heavily despite the stakes, with Enzo Maresca using the EFL Cup as an opportunity to manage workloads and assess squad depth. One enforced change comes in defence, as Marc Cucurella is suspended after accumulating bookings, ruling him out of the trip to the Welsh capital.
Jorrel Hato is set to deputise at left-back, offering a like-for-like replacement in terms of athleticism and composure. There is also positive news in midfield, with Moises Caicedo returning to contention after serving a three-match suspension, making him available for selection.
Several players remain unavailable due to injury or eligibility rules. Liam Delap continues his recovery from a shoulder problem, while Dario Essugo and Romeo Lavia are both sidelined with thigh injuries. Mykhailo Mudryk remains unavailable following a doping-related suspension, and Levi Colwill is still out with a knee issue.
In addition, Marc Guiu cannot feature as he is cup-tied, having already represented Sunderland earlier in the competition. These absences mean Maresca will lean on a mix of returning regulars and fringe players to carry Chelsea through this tie.
From a tactical standpoint, Chelsea are expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation that prioritises control through midfield while allowing freedom to younger attackers in advanced areas. Filip Jorgensen is likely to start in goal, continuing his involvement in cup competitions.
The back four should feature Josh Acheampong at right-back, with Tosin Adarabioyo and Benoit Badiashile forming the central defensive partnership. Jorrel Hato is expected to operate at left-back, tasked with providing defensive balance and progression down the flank.
In midfield, Moises Caicedo is set to anchor the double pivot, offering ball-winning ability and positional discipline, alongside Andrey Santos, who should contribute energy and vertical passing from deeper areas.
Ahead of them, Estevao is expected to operate on the right wing, providing creativity and one-on-one threat, while Facundo Buonanotte plays centrally as the attacking midfielder, linking play between midfield and attack. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens should start on the left flank, where his pace and directness can stretch Cardiff’s defence. Up front, Tyrique George is likely to lead the line as the central striker, tasked with pressing from the front and attacking space in behind.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Jorgensen; Acheampong, Adarabioyo, Badiashile, Hato; Caicedo, Santos; Estevao, Buonanotte, Gittens; George
Key Stats
- Chelsea have won each of their last five meetings with Cardiff City in all competitions, with the most recent encounter ending in a 2-1 away victory in the Premier League in 2019.
- Cardiff City’s last win over Chelsea came in the EFL Cup back in 1986.
- Chelsea have won their last five EFL Cup quarter-final matches, reaching the semi-finals in four of the previous eight seasons.
- Cardiff City have won six of their last seven matches in all competitions and are currently on a three-game winning streak in League One.
- This is only the third time Cardiff City have reached the EFL Cup quarter-finals, and they hold a 100% win record at this stage of the competition.
Player to Watch
Moises Caicedo
Caicedo returns to the spotlight at a crucial moment for Chelsea, with the midfielder back in contention after serving a three-match suspension. His presence could be decisive in a fixture where control of midfield is likely to determine the outcome, particularly against a Cardiff side riding high on confidence and momentum.
Caicedo’s ability to break up play, cover ground, and recycle possession quickly gives Chelsea a stabilising force in transition. In cup ties against lower-league opposition, tempo management is often key, and Caicedo’s discipline and positional awareness allow Chelsea to dictate the rhythm rather than get dragged into a chaotic contest.
If Chelsea are to navigate a potentially tricky night in the Welsh capital and avoid an upset, Caicedo’s influence in shielding the defence and initiating attacks from deep could prove to be the difference between progression and disappointment.
Prediction
Cardiff City 1-2 Chelsea
Cardiff City’s form and confidence should ensure this is far from straightforward for the visitors, especially with Chelsea expected to rotate heavily. However, the Blues’ depth, experience in knockout football, and control through midfield, particularly with Moises Caicedo back available, should be enough to edge a competitive tie and secure a place in the EFL Cup semi-finals.
