France must stage a remarkable comeback and overturn a two-goal deficit against Croatia to secure a place in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals.
Croatia secured a 2-0 win over France in the first leg of this quarter-final tie at the Stadion Poljud in Split. With this win, they already have a foot in the semi-finals and will be looking to complete the job when they hit the road to face Les Bleus at the Stade de France on Sunday. Meanwhile, the home team will be hoping to script an incredible comeback as they look to stay alive in the competition.
After securing the top spot in League A Group 2 of the Nations League, France were the favourites heading into this tie. With Kylian Mbappe returning to the national team, they were expected to get the job done against Croatia. But things did not go according to plan for them.
While they dominated the ball and took more shots on goal, Les Bleus were not clinical enough in the final third. Meanwhile, the visitors made the most out of the limited chances they got in the first leg at home. Now, they will be hoping to get the job done away from home.
Once again, France are expected to dominate the ball, but they are not going to find it easy to break down the team that finished second in League A Group 1. It will be a closely fought encounter, but Croatia’s 2-0 lead could make all the difference. The Hard Tackle takes a close look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.
Team News & Tactics
France
While Ibrahima Konate is fit to feature in this fixture, he might have to sit on the bench after a disappointing display last time out. Dayot Upamecano could replace him in the XI.
Didier Deschamps does not have any fresh injury concerns, but he could still make a few changes to the XI that started in their last outing. He could give a few youngsters a run as they hope for an incredible comeback.
Against Croatia, France will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, where Mike Maignan will continue in goal. Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez will feature as the full-backs, while Upamecano should partner with William Saliba at the heart of the defence.
Real Madrid duo Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga will anchor the midfield as a double pivot, aiming to shield the backline while dictating the tempo of the game.
Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola will feature on the flanks, providing much-needed width to their attacks. Meanwhile, Ousmane Dembele will take up the attacking midfielder’s role, and Mbappe will lead the line for France vs Croatia.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Theo Hernandez; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Olise, Dembele, Barcola; Mbappe
Croatia
While the visitors did not pick up any fresh injuries in the first leg, they will be without the services of Luka Sucic, who missed the first leg. Having secured a 2-0 win in the first leg, Croatia could switch to back three for the second leg.
The away side could line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation as they look to ensure they keep things tight and progress to the next round. Dominik Livakovic will be in goal for them, while Josko Gvardiol will partner with Josip Sutalo and Duje Caleta-Car in the central defensive partnership.
The back three will receive significant support from Josip Stanisic and Borna Sosa, who will feature as the wing-backs. Meanwhile, Luka Modric should continue to partner with Mateo Kovacic in the centre of the park. Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric will be the two attacking midfielders behind Ante Budimir, who lead the line for Croatia vs France.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Livakovic; Caleta-Car, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Perisic, Kramaric; Budimir
Key Stats
- France’s defeat in the first leg was their second in their last 12 UEFA Nations League games away from home.
- After a run of three games without a win, Croatia turned things around in the first leg by securing a 2-0 win.
- Les Bleus have a poor home record in the Nations League, as they have only won two out of their last six games.
- Croatia did not win any of their three away games in the 2024-25 Nations League group.
- The last time Zlatko Dalic’s side travelled to France, they secured a 1-0 win (2022-23 Nations League).
Player to Watch
Michael Olise
Olise is enjoying a sensational debut campaign at Bayern Munich. He has been involved in a total of 40 matches and has contributed towards 24 goals. While he has done wonders at the club level, the 23-year-old has the opportunity to become a hero on the international stage.
The former Crystal Palace talismanwill most likely start in the second leg as France eyes a comeback. Given the kind of form he has been in, the Bayern Munich star can certainly have a big say on how things pan out in this fixture.
Prediction
France 2-1 Croatia
France will certainly go all-out attack as they have overturned a 2-goal deficit. While they do have the quality in their squad to get the job done, going past Croatia has never been that easy for them. The visitors will certainly give them a run for their money, and eventually, they might just make it to the last four. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for the home team. Croatia to progress 3-2 on aggregate.
