Bayer Leverkusen will need a miracle when they welcome Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League.
Bayer Leverkusen face a monumental task when they welcome Bayern Munich to the BayArena on Tuesday for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie. After suffering a 3-0 defeat in the first leg, Leverkusen must produce one of the most remarkable comebacks in Champions League history to overturn the deficit and book their place in the quarter-finals.
Leverkusen’s first-leg collapse at the Allianz Arena was largely self-inflicted. While they were already trailing 1-0 at half-time, goalkeeper Matej Kovar’s failed attempt to collect a routine cross gifted Jamal Musiala a tap-in for Bayern’s second goal. Things went from bad to worse when Nordi Mukiele was sent off in the 62nd minute, leaving the visitors with no chance of a comeback.
A late Edmond Tapsoba foul on Harry Kane resulted in a penalty, which the English striker converted to seal a 3-0 first-leg victory for the hosts. Only three teams in Champions League history have ever managed to overturn a three-goal first-leg deficit, meaning Xabi Alonso’s men will need a near-perfect performance to have any hope of advancing.
Their recent form suggests they may struggle — Leverkusen have won just two of their last six matches (D2 L2) across all competitions, and their 2-0 league defeat to Werder Bremen on Saturday further dented their confidence. However, there is a glimmer of hope in their home record. Before losing to Werder Bremen, Leverkusen were unbeaten in 18 matches at the BayArena, winning 13 of those games.
They have also been dominant at home in the UEFA Champions League, winning their last four games at the BayArena without conceding a single goal. Die Roten capitalised on Leverkusen’s errors in the first leg, but they also deserve credit for limiting their opponents to just one clear-cut chance throughout the match.
The Bavarians have been in strong attacking form, scoring three or more goals in six of their last 10 matches while netting 26 goals in 11 European fixtures this season. However, Vincent Kompany’s team will need to respond after a surprising 3-2 Bundesliga defeat to VfL Bochum on Saturday.
Despite taking a two-goal lead, Bayern Munich lost control of the game following João Palhinha’s red card in the 42nd minute, eventually conceding three times in the second half. Before that loss, Bayern had been on a ten-match unbeaten streak (W8 D2). Their away record in recent weeks has been solid, with just two losses in their last 12 road fixtures.
That said, they were comfortably beaten 3-0 away at Feyenoord in their final UEFA Champions League group-stage match in January, proving that they can struggle on the road in Europe. Interestingly, this will be the fourth meeting between these sides this season, with Bayern previously recording two draws in the Bundesliga and a win in the DFB-Pokal, conceding just two goals across those three games. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen will be without Nordi Mukiele, who is suspended following his red card in the first leg. Additionally, Jeanuel Belocian has been ruled out for the rest of the season, further limiting Xabi Alonso’s defensive options. As a result, the backline could see a reshuffle, with Mario Hermoso, Piero Hincapie, and Jonathan Tah forming a three-man defence.
In midfield, Robert Andrich is a doubt due to illness, which could see Exequiel Palacios step in alongside Granit Xhaka in the centre of the park. Meanwhile, the hosts have been dealt a significant attacking blow, as Florian Wirtz remains sidelined until early April due to injury. His absence means that Amine Adli is likely to feature in the attack, alongside Nathan Tella and Victor Boniface.
Head coach Xabi Alonso is expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Matej Kovar continuing as the goalkeeper. The back three will consist of Mario Hermoso, Jonathan Tah, and Piero Hincapie, aiming to contain Bayern’s attacking threats.
In midfield, Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo will play as the wing-backs, providing width and attacking support. Granit Xhaka and Exequiel Palacios will operate in central midfield, tasked with controlling possession and shielding the defence.
Further forward, Nathan Tella and Amine Adli will function as the attacking midfielders, supporting lone striker Victor Boniface, who will be responsible for leading the line and trying to breach Bayern’s defensive setup.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Kovar; Hermoso, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Adli; Boniface
Bayern Munich
Die Roten will once again be without Manuel Neuer, who is not expected to return until late March due to a calf injury. As a result, Jonas Urbig is set to continue as the starting goalkeeper.
In defence, Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae will form the centre-back pairing, offering both physicality and composure at the heart of Bayern’s backline. Josip Stanisic is expected to feature at right-back, while Raphael Guerreiro will occupy the left-back role, providing an attacking outlet down the flank.
Midfield maestro Joshua Kimmich is certain to start in the middle of the park, and he is likely to be partnered in a double pivot by Leon Goretzka, who will provide defensive stability and attacking support.
Further forward, Harry Kane will spearhead Bayern’s attack, looking to add to his impressive goal-scoring record this season. He is expected to be supported by an exciting trio of Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, and Kingsley Coman, all of whom offer creativity, pace, and goal-scoring ability in the final third.
Bayern will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Jonas Urbig in goal. The backline will consist of Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, and Raphael Guerreiro, providing a mix of defensive solidity and attacking width.
In midfield, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka will control the tempo, ensuring Bayern maintain possession while offering defensive protection. Ahead of them, Michael Olise will operate on the right wing, Jamal Musiala will take up the central attacking role, and Kingsley Coman will feature on the left, all working to create chances for Harry Kane, who will lead the line as the lone striker.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Goretzka, Kimmich; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane
Key Stats
-
Bayern Munich could secure multiple wins over Bayer Leverkusen in a single season for the first time since 2020/21. The Bavarians last achieved this feat under Hansi Flick, winning both encounters in the Bundesliga that season.
-
Bayer Leverkusen have been strong at home against Bayern under Xabi Alonso. They are unbeaten in their last three home matches against Bayern, winning two and drawing one (W2 D1). Prior to Alonso’s arrival, they had won just one of their previous eight home meetings (D2 L5) between 2015/16 and 2021/22.
-
Bayern Munich are looking to qualify for the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals for the 35th time, with only Real Madrid (39 appearances) having reached this stage more often.
-
If they overturn their three-goal first-leg deficit, they would become only the fifth team in Champions League history to do so, following Deportivo La Coruna (2003/04 vs AC Milan), Barcelona (2016/17 vs PSG), AS Roma (2017/18 vs Barcelona), and Liverpool (2018/19 vs Barcelona).
-
Despite their dominant position in this tie, Bayern Munich have already suffered two away defeats by three-goal margins in this Champions League campaign (1-4 vs Barcelona in October and 0-3 vs Feyenoord in January). This marks the first time in their European history that they have lost more than one game by 3+ goals in a single Champions League season.
Player to Watch
Victor Boniface
If Bayer Leverkusen are to have any chance of staging an improbable comeback against Bayern Munich, much of their attacking hopes will rest on Victor Boniface. The Nigerian striker has been a key figure for Xabi Alonso’s side this season, providing a powerful presence up front with his strength, pace, and clinical finishing.
Boniface’s ability to hold up play and bring others into the attack will be crucial, especially with Florian Wirtz missing due to injury. Without their primary playmaker, Bayer Leverkusen will look to Boniface to lead the line, disrupt Bayern’s defense, and take advantage of any opportunities that come his way.
Despite missing a large portion of 2024 due to injury, Boniface has returned with purpose, and his physicality could trouble Bayern’s center-backs, Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae. If Bayer Leverkusen are to break down the away side’s backline, they will need Boniface to be at his best, making intelligent runs and finishing clinically.
With Bayer Leverkusen needing goals to mount a miraculous turnaround, expect Boniface to be heavily involved as they look to pull off an unlikely European upset.
Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Bayern Munich (Bayern win 5-1 on aggregate)
Bayer Leverkusen have the home advantage, but their recent dip in form and the first-leg deficit make this an extremely tough challenge. Bayern Munich’s firepower, led by Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala, is likely to be too much for Xabi Alonso’s side, even if they improve on their first-leg performance.
Expect Bayer Leverkusen to push forward aggressively, but Bayern Munich’s ability to hit on the counter and their overall experience in big European matches should see them extend their advantage. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Vincent Kompany and his charges.
