RB Leipzig will hope to break into the top four when they take on St. Pauli on Sunday evening.
With the race for UEFA Champions League qualification intensifying, RB Leipzig will look to hold onto their top-four spot when they welcome St. Pauli to the Red Bull Arena on Sunday. However, their recent struggles against bottom-half sides could make this an unpredictable encounter.
RB Leipzig entered the weekend fourth in the Bundesliga with 33 points, but their position is anything but secure. VfB Stuttgart have since overtaken them with a win away to Borussia Dortmund, meaning Leipzig cannot afford to drop points this weekend.
Their home side’s goalless draw against Union Berlin last weekend highlighted their offensive struggles, as Die Roten Bullen could only muster 0.27 xG compared to their opponents’ 1.27 xG. This was the second consecutive match where Leipzig failed to score, following a 1-0 loss to Sturm Graz in the Champions League. Despite this dry spell, Marco Rose’s men had netted 12 goals in their previous five matches, showing they are capable of bouncing back.
Leipzig’s inconsistency against bottom-half teams is a growing concern. Costly draws against St. Pauli, VfL Bochum, and Union Berlin, along with a loss to Hoffenheim in November, have left them in an uncertain position. With Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund just four points behind, any further slip-ups could see them drop out of the Champions League places.
Their home form, however, has been excellent. In their last 16 Bundesliga matches at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig have won 10, drawn five, and lost just once, making their stadium a fortress. If they can rediscover their scoring touch, this match could be a turning point in their season.
St. Pauli arrive in 13th place with 21 points, showing signs of defensive solidity despite their struggles in attack. Their 1-1 draw against Augsburg on February 1 was another testament to their resilience, as they restricted their opponents to just two shots, only conceding late in the 83rd minute.
This season, Alexander Blessin’s side have been defined by their contrasting statistics — their 18 goals scored is the third-worst offensive record in the Bundesliga, yet their 22 goals conceded makes them the second-best defensive side in the division.
St. Pauli have already faced Leipzig twice this season, holding them to a 0-0 draw in the league in September but suffering a 4-2 defeat in the DFB-Pokal in October. With recent form on their side — two wins and a draw in their last three games—they will be eager to frustrate Leipzig again.
However, their away form remains inconsistent. They have managed to win two of their last three away fixtures, but their overall record on the road this season stands at six losses in 13 matches, highlighting their vulnerability. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig have been dealt a significant injury blow, with Benjamin Henrichs ruled out for the remainder of the season. The full-back joins midfielders Forzan Assan Ouedraogo and Xaver Schlager on the sidelines, leaving manager Marco Rose with limited options in key areas of the pitch.
In attack, Yussuf Poulsen is struggling with a thigh injury, making him a major doubt for this fixture. However, Leipzig still have a strong frontline, with Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko expected to start together up front.
Leipzig are likely to set up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Peter Gulacsi starting in goal. The defensive line will see Lukas Klostermann at right-back, while Willi Orban and Castello Lukeba form the centre-back partnership. David Raum is expected to start at left-back, offering attacking support down the flank.
In midfield, Nicolas Seiwald and Amadou Haidara will operate as a double pivot, providing defensive stability while also facilitating ball progression. Out wide, Antonio Nusa will start on the right, looking to use his pace and dribbling ability to stretch the St. Pauli defence, while Xavi Simons will take up a role on the left, acting as the creative spark in Leipzig’s attack.
Up front, Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko will lead the line. Openda’s speed and goal-scoring instincts combined with Sesko’s physical presence and aerial ability make them a dangerous duo capable of breaking down a resolute St. Pauli defense.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Nusa, Seiwald, Haidara, Simons; Sesko, Openda
St. Pauli
St. Pauli are dealing with a number of key absences ahead of their visit to RB Leipzig. First-choice goalkeepers Sascha Burchert and Soren Ahlers are both unavailable, meaning Nikola Vasilj is expected to start between the posts.
Defensively, Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas have been ruled out, leaving head coach Alexander Blessin with limited options at the back. As a result, the defensive trio of Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and David Nemeth are likely to be deployed in front of Vasilj to provide stability.
In midfield, Robert Wagner will play no part in this fixture, making way for Jackson Irvine and James Sands to operate in the centre of the pitch. Their presence will be crucial in breaking up Leipzig’s attacking rhythm while also facilitating St. Pauli’s build-up play.
The visitors are also missing key attacking options, with Simon Zoller and Morgan Guilavogui unavailable for selection. This leaves Johannes Eggestein to lead the line as the central striker, supported by Oladapo Afolayan and Noah Weisshaupt on the flanks.
St. Pauli are expected to set up in a 3-4-3 formation, with Nikola Vasilj as the starting goalkeeper. The back three will feature Hauke Wahl on the right, Eric Smith in the centre, and David Nemeth on the left.
In the wing-back roles, Philipp Treu will operate on the right, while Lars Ritzka is expected to take charge on the left. In central midfield, Jackson Irvine and James Sands will be tasked with controlling possession and providing defensive cover.
The attacking trio will see Oladapo Afolayan on the right wing, Noah Weisshaupt on the left, and Johannes Eggestein as the lone striker. St. Pauli will rely on Afolayan’s pace, Weisshaupt’s dribbling ability, and Eggestein’s finishing to trouble Leipzig’s defence and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Nemeth; Treu, Irvine, Sands, Ritzka; Afolayan, Eggestein, Weisshaupt
Key Stats
- RB Leipzig have failed to score in their last four league meetings with St. Pauli. This is the club’s worst scoring record against a single opponent in professional football.
- RB Leipzig are unbeaten in all 34 Bundesliga matches against promoted teams (W30 D4). This is the longest run in the history of the Bundesliga. However, the only time they dropped points in their last 18 matches against promoted sides was in the 0-0 draw against St. Pauli in the first half of this season.
- With seven points and a +5 goal difference, St. Pauli are the second-best performing team in the second half of the Bundesliga season, only behind Bayern Munich (9 points). This marks their best-ever start to the second half of a Bundesliga campaign.
- St. Pauli are unbeaten in three Bundesliga games for the first time this season.
- RB Leipzig are without a win in their last four Bundesliga games (D3 L1), equaling their longest winless streak this season. It’s also the first time they’ve started the second half of a top-flight campaign without winning any of their first three games.
- RB Leipzig have collected 18 points at home in the Bundesliga this season, their best return after nine home games of a top-flight campaign since 2021/22. Meanwhile, St. Pauli have earned 12 points on the road, and the last time they managed more after 10 away games was back in 2010/11 (13 points).
Player to Watch
Lois Openda
Openda’s combination of pace, movement, and sharp finishing makes him a constant threat to opposing defences. He thrives on exploiting spaces behind defenders and can capitalise on Leipzig’s creative outlets, including players like Xavi Simons and David Raum, who are adept at delivering incisive passes.
Despite Leipzig’s recent struggles in front of goal, Openda’s work rate and ability to create opportunities could be pivotal against a defensively disciplined St. Pauli side. With St. Pauli missing key defensive personnel such as Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas, Openda has an excellent opportunity to exploit the gaps and get back on the score sheet.
This fixture is the perfect platform for Openda to showcase his quality and lift Leipzig out of their mini-slump. If Leipzig are to overcome their recent scoring woes, Openda’s clinical edge will be crucial. Keep an eye on him to potentially deliver the game-changing moment Leipzig need.
Prediction
RB Leipzig 2-0 St. Pauli
Leipzig’s recent struggles in front of goal make this a tricky fixture, especially against a St. Pauli side that thrives on defensive discipline. If Marco Rose’s attack does not click, this could turn into another frustrating draw for the hosts. However, given Leipzig’s strong home record and superior squad depth, they should find a way to break down St. Pauli’s low block.
