Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Preview and Prediction

Newcastle United are set to host Arsenal at St. James’ Park in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-finals, with the Magpies coming into the clash with a two-goal lead.

Eddie Howe will have been pleased his side took full advantage of Arsenal’s shortcomings earlier in January when Newcastle United went to the Emirates. While the Gunners had more possession and control of the game, the Magpies were the clinical side of the two, as goals from Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon helped them with a solid advantage in the first leg.

Newcastle United will feel they have a foot into the EFL Cup final, but Howe will know his team lacks momentum heading into this one. After beating Arsenal at the Emirates, the Magpies progressed in the FA Cup with a home win over Bromley and then beat Wolves at St. James’ Park.

However, Howe’s men have stuttered on home soil with back-to-back defeats against Bournemouth and then Fulham at the weekend. There will be an element of worry from a Newcastle perspective, as they will need to put in a perfect shift to keep the Gunners at bay at St. James’ Park.

Meanwhile, Arsenal may have put their inconsistencies in the rearview mirror following a stellar performance at the weekend. The Gunners were flying on Sunday when they hosted champions Manchester City. Mikel Arteta’s men put five past Pep Guardiola’s side to remain at a decent distance from Liverpool in the title race. That 5-1 win was nothing short of a statement win.

An early opener from Martin Odegaard stemmed from a defensive error at the back from Manchester City. However, early in the second half, Erling Haaland briefly brought parity after a stunning headed equaliser, but another error, this time from Phil Foden, allowed Thomas Partey to restore the lead, and Arsenal were unstoppable after that.

Teenagers Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri got their goals on either side of a stellar Kai Havertz strike. Heading to St. James’ Park, Arteta’s side have the momentum and belief to unlock this Newcastle United side, who are a bit short on confidence. So, there is every chance for Arsenal to progress should they repeat their performance from the weekend.

Team News & Tactics

Newcastle United

Eddie Howe will aim to start a strong lineup for the second leg, as he does not have massive issues with player fitness. There is an outside chance of Nick Pope starting, as the keeper was on the bench for their last two games and will be eager to make a return. Martin Dubravka has momentum on his side, which could potentially see him continue between the sticks.

Harvey Barnes is out of the contest with a muscle problem, while Jamaal Lascelles is also a long-term absentee. Callum Wilson still has an outside chance to feature in some capacity, although the striker is unlikely to start ahead of talisman Isak.

Bruno Guimaraes is also expected to start after missing the first leg with a suspension. He could have Sandro Tonali on one side in that midfield three, while Joe Willock could push for a start, as Joelinton is viewed as a mild doubt for this clash.

Beyond that, Howe could consider recalling Sven Botman into his backline, as Dan Burn could sit this one out to allow the Dutchman’s integration. A front three of Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, and Jacob Murphy will be expected to start this game, as they will once again hope to find gaps in that Arsenal backline.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Willock; Murphy, Isak, Gordon

Arsenal

Arsenal are believed to have come unscathed from their massive win over Manchester City at the weekend. However, Mikel Arteta’s squad has long-term problems, and their status has not changed, as Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White, Gabriel Jesus, and Bukayo Saka are still out of contention.

Arteta will have been relieved to have David Raya back in the setup, as the Spaniard shook off a muscular problem to face Manchester City. He will be expected to stay between the sticks as Neto remains cup-tied for this competition. Tommy Setford could feature on the bench as the second-choice keeper for this clash.

Arteta is likely to name an unchanged lineup from the weekend. He will rely on Myles Lewis-Skelly at left-back, while Jurrien Timber continues on the right-hand side. There were calls for Ethan Nwaneri to start on the right wing at the weekend, but Gabriel Martinelli’s energetic performance will likely keep the teenager on the bench for this second leg. Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard complete the front three.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Martinelli, Havertz, Trossard

Key Stats

  • Newcastle United have won three of their last four matches against Arsenal in all competitions.
  • Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven matches against Arsenal in all competitions.
  • Newcastle United have lost their last two home games.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in six games across all competitions since losing to Newcastle United in the first leg.
  • Arsenal have wins in their last eight away matches across all competitions.

Player to Watch

Declan Rice

Embed from Getty Images

Much like the weekend, the battles will be won in midfield, and Declan Rice is in the form of his life as things stand. The midfielder has been tremendous for Arsenal in all boxes in recent games, and Mikel Arteta will once again rely on the England international to help his side dominate proceedings.

Rice will face a different challenge from the weekend, as he must overcome the challenge posed by Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes in the Newcastle United midfield. Rice will have Thomas Partey by his side, and the midfield will be a battle to watch out for, as the team that dominates the area is likely to have their tails up in this clash.

Prediction

Newcastle United 1-3 Arsenal

Newcastle United are in wobbly form at home and do not have the right momentum heading into one of their most important games of the season. Eddie Howe will have the same personnel he had during the trip to North London, but this game will be dictated by either side’s form.

Arsenal, for their part, have made their case with a stunning win over Manchester City. The momentum gathered from that performance will serve them well, as their current form will likely see Mikel Arteta’s side score enough goals to take this clash into extra time. However, one cannot rule out another big win for the Gunners to go straight into the final of the EFL Cup.

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