Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Preview and Prediction

Borussia Dortmund will hope to make the top eight while Shakhtar Donetsk have a long shot of making the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund face Shakhtar Donetsk at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday, with both teams desperate for a result to secure their respective goals in the UEFA Champions League. For Dortmund, the stakes are high as they aim to clinch automatic qualification to the round of 16, while Shakhtar cling to slim hopes of advancing to the playoffs.

Currently 14th in the standings with 12 points, Borussia Dortmund have at least secured a playoff spot despite their recent 2-1 loss to Bologna. The match marked the end of Nuri Sahin’s tenure as manager, with caretaker boss Mike Tullberg now tasked with steadying the ship. In his first game in charge, Tullberg oversaw a spirited 2-2 Bundesliga draw against Werder Bremen, where Dortmund battled with ten men for over 70 minutes.

Despite their attacking prowess — 19 goals in the Champions League, second only to Barcelona — Dortmund’s defensive frailties have been glaring. They have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches across all competitions, including five in their previous two European outings. Their home form has also been underwhelming, with no wins in their last five fixtures at Signal Iduna Park. However, their overall Champions League home record remains strong, with just one loss in their last 14 games, a narrow 3-2 defeat to Barcelona.

Dortmund’s inconsistent performances have left them one point adrift of automatic qualification, sitting six places outside the top 16. With a superior goal difference compared to their rivals, Tullberg’s men still have hope, but they will need results to swing in their favour elsewhere.

Shakhtar Donetsk enter this match on the back of a confidence-boosting 2-0 victory over Brest. However, their overall Champions League campaign has been riddled with inconsistency. With just seven points to their name, the Ukrainian side are three points behind Stuttgart, who occupy the final playoff spot.

Marino Pusic’s men have struggled defensively, conceding eight goals in the two European games prior to their win against Brest. Their attacking output has been equally underwhelming, creating just 13 big chances across seven matches — ranking 24th in the competition.

Shakhtar’s away form is another concern, having lost three of their last four matches on the road. This poor run extends to their broader Champions League travels, with eight defeats in their last 12 away games. To keep their playoff hopes alive, Shakhtar must defy the odds against a Dortmund side known for their resilience in Europe. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund will head into this crucial Champions League fixture with a relatively small injury list but still missing key players. Midfielder Felix Nmecha and centre-back Niklas Sule are ruled out, forcing caretaker manager Mike Tullberg to shuffle his squad. There are no suspensions impacting their lineup for this match, which is a small relief as they look to rediscover form.

Defensively, Nico Schlotterbeck is expected to partner with Waldemar Anton at the heart of the backline. They will sit in front of goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, with Julian Ryerson and Pascal Gross likely to occupy the left-back and right-back positions, respectively.

In midfield, Emre Can is expected to take up the defensive midfield role, offering stability behind Marcel Sabitzer and Maximilian Beier in more advanced positions. Up front, Dortmund are set to deploy an attacking trio comprising Karim Adeyemi, Serhou Guirassy, and Jamie Gittens, ensuring pace and creativity in the final third.

In a 4-3-3 setup, Gregor Kobel will start in goal, providing reliability between the posts. Pascal Gross will occupy the right-back position, while Julian Ryerson operates as the left-back. The central defensive pairing will feature Waldemar Anton and Nico Schlotterbeck.

In midfield, Emre Can is set to anchor the team as a defensive midfielder, offering cover for the backline and aiding in transitions. Ahead of him, Marcel Sabitzer and Maximilian Beier will bring energy and creativity, with Sabitzer particularly effective at linking midfield to attack.

The front three will see Karim Adeyemi and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens on the flanks, with Serhou Guirassy leading the line Borussia Dortmund as the central striker against Shakhtar Donetskh on Wednesday night.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Kobel; Gross, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson; Beier, Can, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Guirassy, Gittens

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Preview and Prediction.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk will aim to replicate their solid performance from their recent win over Brest, although they are not without absences. Forward Eguinaldo remains unavailable and is not expected to return until mid-February, leaving the attacking responsibilities to others. Fortunately, there are no suspension concerns for Shakhtar heading into this encounter.

Defensively, Valeriy Bondar and Mykola Matviyenko are likely to continue as the central pairing, providing stability at the back. Marlon Gomes and Georgiy Sudakov are set to feature as number eights, offering dynamism and creativity in midfield, while defensive midfielder Dmytro Kryskiv will shield the backline. In attack, Lassina Traore is expected to lead the line, supported by Pedrinho and Kevin on the wings, ensuring a balanced mix of pace and precision in their forward play.

Shakhtar Donetsk are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Dmytro Riznyk in goal, anchoring the defensive unit. The full-back positions will likely be occupied by Vinicius Tobias on the right and Irakli Azarovi on the left, while Valeriy Bondar and Mykola Matviyenko form the central defensive duo.

In midfield, Dmytro Kryskiv will play as the defensive midfielder, tasked with breaking up opposition attacks and distributing the ball effectively. Marlon Gomes and Georgiy Sudakov will operate as central midfielders, supporting both defensive and offensive transitions.

The forward trio includes Pedrinho on the right wing, Kevin on the left wing, and Lassina Traore spearheading the attack as the central striker. This formation emphasises compactness in defence and flexibility in attack, allowing Shakhtar to adapt to Dortmund’s threats while posing their own challenges.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Riznyk; Tobias, Bondar, Matviyenko, Azarovi; Gomes, Kryskiv, Sudakov; Pedrinho, Traore, Kevin

Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their four previous meetings with Shakhtar Donetsk in European competition (W3 D1). The most recent encounter saw Dortmund eliminate Shakhtar from the UEFA Champions League during the 2012/13 round of 16.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk have won two of their last three away games against German opposition in the UEFA Champions League. They defeated Hoffenheim 3-2 in the 2018/19 campaign and RB Leipzig 4-1 in the 2022/23 season.
  • Borussia Dortmund lost 3-2 to Barcelona on Matchday 6 of this season’s UEFA Champions League, marking a rare home defeat. Notably, they have not lost consecutive home games since April/September 2017 and have never done so in the same season.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk lost 3-2 to PSV in their most recent Champions League outing despite leading 2-0 until the 87th minute. Additionally, they have lost four of their last five away matches (D1) in the competition.
  • Borussia Dortmund have conceded only two first-half goals in their last 22 home UEFA Champions League matches. Of the 17 goals they have conceded at Signal Iduna Park during this period, 15 have come in the second half. This includes all three goals in their 3-2 loss to Barcelona on Matchday 6.

Player to Watch

Serhou Guirassy

Embed from Getty Images

Borussia Dortmund’s hopes of securing a crucial result against Shakhtar Donetsk will heavily rely on the form of Serhou Guirassy, their focal point in the final third. Known for his physicality, aerial dominance, and clinical finishing, Guirassy is a constant threat to opposition defences.

Since joining Dortmund, Guirassy has consistently demonstrated his ability to rise to the occasion in key moments. His hold-up play and knack for finding space make him a vital link between Dortmund’s midfield and forward line. With 12 goals across all competitions this season, Guirassy has proven to be Dortmund’s most reliable source of goals in high-pressure scenarios.

Facing a Shakhtar defence that has struggled in away matches — conceding eight goals in their last two Champions League road games — Guirassy will look to exploit their vulnerabilities. His physical presence will also be a challenge for Shakhtar’s centre-backs, Valeriy Bondar and Mykola Matviyenko, who will need to be at their best to contain him.

Dortmund will aim to provide Guirassy with service from wide areas through players like Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi, and his ability to convert chances could be decisive in what promises to be a tightly contested affair. If Guirassy finds his rhythm, he could well be the difference-maker for the hosts.

Prediction

Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Both teams are struggling for consistency, but Dortmund’s superior firepower and solid UEFA Champions League home record give them the edge. Shakhtar’s defensive vulnerabilities and poor away form make them unlikely to snatch a win, although they could pose problems on the counter-attack. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Mike Tullberg and his charges.

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