Italy vs Belgium: Preview and Prediction

Italy are out there to retain the top spot in their group as they take on third-placed Belgium in their UEFA Nations League A clash in Rome.

Italy put their disappointing Euros exit behind them as they began their UEFA Nations League A, consisting of France, Israel, and Belgium, journey in top fashion. Luciano Spalletti’s side came out on top against France away from home before winning against Israel in their other group game. With those victories, the Azzurri occupy the top spot in their group with six points to show.

Following Federico Dimarco’s brilliant opener, Davide Frattesi and Giacomo Raspadori wrapped up three points in Paris. In the other game, Frattessi was on the scoresheet again as Moise Kean got his name there as well, as Italy ran out 2-1 reverse winners as Israel’s late response through Mohammed Abu Fani was merely a consolation for the home side.

After a mixed start to life as Italy’s national team manager, Spalletti is finally realising his best side, and the players are responding to his style. Those two wins were proof of that, as Italy could further cement their authority in the group. Spalletti would want the race for a top-two finish to be won early, which would give them passage into the new quarter-final stage of the tournament.

Meanwhile, Belgium are the visitors to Rome, as they are aiming to resume their quest to finish in the top two in the group after a setback in the previous international break. After opening their account with a good win over Israel, the Red Devils succumbed to France in the second clash, after which star man Kevin De Bruyne criticised their approach.

Against Israel, De Bruyne scored a brace, with a Youri Tielemans strike sandwiched between the Manchester City star’s goals. However, following the loss to France, Belgium find themselves in the third spot, level on points with France and in other metrics.

Domenico Tedesco will look for a big response when France takes on group leaders Italy in their next clash away from home. The manager will want a win to keep up the pace, as France is expected to collect three points against Israel on Thursday.

Team News & Tactics

Italy

Luciano Spalletti has continued his squad-building exercise and has included five uncapped players in his squad. Those inclde Daniel Maldini and Niccolo Pisilli. Some notable absentees include Federico Chiesa.

Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini, both from Atalanta, are long-term absentees with ACL injuries and are not expected to feature anytime soon. There was also a withdrawal from the in-form attacker, Moise Kean, who has a back problem. Nicolo Barella is back with the squad after missing the previous international break.

Spalletti could use Lorenzo Lucca in place of Kean in the squad. In contrast, the manager will likely use Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui up front in what will seem like a 3-5-2 formation.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori; Bellenova, Tonali, Ricci, Frattesi, Dimarco; Raspadori, Retegui 

Belgium

Domenico Tedesco will be without Kevin De Bruyne and Amadou Onana for this international session, as the duo are having fitness issues. Meanwhile, Romelu Lukaku has taken a sabbatical from the national side and will not feature. Keeper Thibaut Courtois is also unavailable, as he joins a list of senior stars missing from action.

Tedesco has called up three Serie A-based players, including Atalanta’s Charles De Ketelaere and Juventus’s Samuel Mbangula. Tedesco will persist with a back four as Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, and Arthur Theate are all featured here, while Koen Casteels will continue in goal in the absence of Courtois.

Orel Mangala will join Youri Tielemans in midfield and replace Onana there. Leandro Trossard should be back in the mix of the lineup as he takes up a No.10 role behind striker Lois Openda. Dodi Lukebakio and Jeremy Doku will support the attack from the wings.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Casteels; Castagne, Faes, Debast, Theate; Mangala, Tielemans; Lukebakio, Trossard, Doku; Openda

Key Stats

  • Italy have won their last four home matches against Belgium in all competitions.
  • Italy have won their first two games of this UEFA Nations League A group.
  • Italy scored at least two goals in all the competitions in their last 4 home matches against Belgium.
  • Belgium and Italy last met three years ago, with the latter coming out on top.

Player to Watch

Leandro Trossard

Embed from Getty Images

The in-form Arsenal attacker has a point to prove in the Belgian national side. He has missed the last two games as he was not selected by Domenico Tedesco. While Trossard has been a good performer for the Red Devils, some clarity is still needed as to why he was dropped.

However, amid the absence of key personnel such as Kevin De Bruyne, Trossard has another big chance to prove his worth, and he should be starting against Italy. This is also a big platform for him to cement his palace in the squad, as a top performance will go a long way toward ensuring that.

Prediction

Italy 2-1 Belgium

Belgium are missing many key players, from the goalkeeper to influential midfielders to strikers. Hence, considering they do not have very talented individuals, there might be a few issues in terms of understanding between the current pack.

Italy’s squad is continuing to grow under Luciano Spalletti, and this will be another big test for the former Napoli manager’s experimentation with his strongest side. With home comfort on their side, the Azzurri are expected to take a narrow win over Belgium, which will cement their place as group leaders.

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