PSG vs Toulouse: Preview and Prediction

PSG can all but seal the Ligue 1 title should they avoid defeat against Toulouse on Sunday night.

PSG (Paris Saint-Germain), having already secured their third consecutive Ligue 1 title, are set to face Toulouse at Parc des Princes on Sunday. While PSG’s Champions League dreams were dashed by Borussia Dortmund, they remain determined to finish the domestic season on a high note.

Despite their recent European disappointment, PSG manager Luis Enrique has received backing from the club’s leadership and will continue in his role for the upcoming season. However, the match against Toulouse holds special significance as it marks Kylian Mbappe’s farewell appearance at Parc des Princes before his move to Real Madrid.

Emotions aside, PSG will aim to end their three-game winless streak and improve their home form, having recorded four draws in their last five Ligue 1 matches at Parc des Princes. Toulouse, meanwhile, are safely positioned in mid-table and look to build on their recent performances, despite a loss to Montpellier last weekend.

Toulouse’s improved form in the second half of the season has been notable, with an average of 1.73 points per game compared to 0.82 in the first half. However, PSG have historically dominated their encounters, remaining unbeaten against Toulouse in their last ten meetings across all competitions.

While Toulouse managed a commendable 1-1 draw against PSG earlier in the season, PSG emerged victorious in the Trophee des Champions clash in January. With PSG’s formidable home record against Toulouse, the visitors face a tough challenge at Parc des Princes. The Hard Tackle delves into the potential elevens and tactics for this highly-anticipated clash.

Team News & Tactics


Lucas Hernandez suffered a devastating ACL injury, ruling him out for the remainder of the season and shattering his hopes of participating in UEFA Euro 2024 with France.

Joining Hernandez on the sidelines are Sergio Rico (head), Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles), and Layvin Kurzawa (back), leaving PSG with several key absences. However, manager Luis Enrique has no new injury concerns following Tuesday’s match and may consider making some tactical adjustments for the upcoming fixture.

Kylian Mbappe, who has seen limited playing time since announcing his departure from PSG, is expected to feature in the starting lineup for his final home appearance. Taking him off for a standing ovation would certainly put the cherry on top for the French superstar.

Luis Enrique is likely to retain his 4-3-3 formation, with Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal. He should be protected by the back four of Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Milan Skriniar, and Nuno Mendes.

Manuel Ugarte should start as the pivot in the midfield, with Lee Kang-In and Warren Zaire-Emery providing him support. Kylian Mbappe should lead the line, with Bradley Barcola and Marco Asensio for support.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Skriniar, Mendes; Lee, Ugarte, Zaire-Emery; Asensio, Mbappe, Barcola

PSG vs Toulouse: Preview and Prediction


Toulouse’s defeat against Montpellier in their last outing resulted in both teams finishing the match with ten players on the field. Rasmus Nicolaisen was shown two yellow cards and will face a one-game suspension for this fixture.

Despite Nicolaisen’s absence, Toulouse will have a fully fit squad to choose from, as their medical room is currently empty. It is anticipated that 20-year-old Kevin Keben will step in as a direct replacement for Nicolaisen in defence.

Toulouse have the second best away record in Ligue 1 in 2024, only behind PSG. They are expected to line up in a  4-3-3 formation, which can shift to a 4-5-1 when not in possession.

Guillaume Restes should start in goal behind the back four of Mikkel Desler, Kevin Keben, Logan Costa and Moussa Diarra. Cristian Casseres Jr. should act as the midfield pivot, with Niklas Schmidt and Vincent Sierro for support. Thijs Dallinga should lead the line, with Zakaria Aboukhlal and Yann Gboho for support.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Restes; Desler, Keben, Costa, Diarra; Schmidt, Casseres Jr, Sierro; Aboukhlal, Dallinga, Gboho

PSG vs Toulouse: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • PSG have won 11 of their last 12 home games against Toulouse in Ligue 1. The lone exception was the draw between both the sides in 2017.
  • Avoiding defeat on the night will see PSG equal their second longest unbeaten streak in Ligue 1 of 27 games. They achieved it between August 1993-April 1994.
  • Toulouse have shown the second most improvement of any team in Ligue 1 in terms of points per game (1.73) in the second half of the campaign with respect to the first half (0.82).
  • If they concede on the night, it will be PSG’s longest run of home games in Ligue 1 without keeping a clean sheet in top flight history (11).
  • A win on the night will see Toulouse secure four consecutive away wins for the first time over the course of one single Ligue 1 campaign.

Player to Watch

Kylian Mbappe

Given the announcement of his exit, all eyes will be on Kylian Mbappe both on and off the field. The Frenchman is amongst the finest players in world football and will now depart Parc des Princes at the end of the season.

It will be curious to see if Luis Enrique will persist with the Frenchman or drop him for what should be the final game in front of the Paris faithful. Surely, Mbappe will want to go out on a high. Whether we will see a player keen to leave on a good note or one whose mind is already elsewhere remains to be seen.


PSG 2-0 Toulouse

Both PSG and Toulouse may approach this match with a sense of relaxation, given that only pride is at stake and the Ligue 1 title is more or less done. PSG will also be keen to send Mbappe on a high. The player, for his part, will want to do his bit and it promises to be a busy nigh for the Toulouse defence. The Hard Tackle predicts a comfortable 2-0 win for the defending champions.

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