Aston Villa travel to Bosnia & Herzegovina to face Zrinjski Mostar on Thursday, needing a point to guarantee a spot in the UEFA Europa Conference League Round of 16.
Aston Villa have arguably not had a better week since lifting the European Cup in 1982 than the last week, in which they have beaten both Manchester City and Arsenal at home. Manager Unai Emery has been lauded as a genius for orchestrating the two victories, which puts Villa firmly in the title race after an astonishing club record of 15 home wins on the spin.
They now head to Mostar having already done all the heavy lifting in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, currently sitting three points ahead of second-placed Legia Warsaw, who surprisingly beat them in Poland in the Group E opener.
The visitors have already achieved their target of qualifying for the next stage of the Europa Conference League, though Emery will be well aware that securing the top spot rather than finishing second in Group E would save them a couple of additional games in the knockout round play-offs.
To do so, they need a point, although a defeat would suffice unless Legia beat AZ convincingly in the other game, and Villa are performing well enough to withstand a test from the reigning Bosnian championship.
Zrinjski Mostar, meanwhile, have little to play for as they are already eliminated from this competition. But they served a warning by beating AZ at home, which was their only win in Group E, and they only narrowly lost their first meeting against Villa in England.
Zrinjski warmed up for this tie with a victory in the Bosnian League against Siroki Brijeg and currently sit in second place in their league behind leaders Borac.
Team News and Tactics
Zrinjski Mostar
Zrijnski Mostar could welcome back midfielder Zvonimir Kozulj after a long absence brought about by his refusal to apologise to former coach Krunoslav Rendulic due to a disciplinary issue.
Kozulj notably bagged a brace and assisted another off the bench in Zrijnski’s incredible 4-3 comeback victory over AZ in September. But their European results since have taken a downturn. They have lost all four Group E fixtures since, three by just one goal.
Caretaker boss Mario Ivankovic has done a fine job at stabilising things and may stick with his strongest lineup as he looks for a fourth win in his sixth game in charge to boost his job prospects. In skipper Nemanja Bilbija, they have an in-form striker leading the line, having scored 18 goals this season, including five across all three European competitions.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maric; Corluka, Jakovljevic, Radic, Memija; Canadjija, Zlomislic; Sabljic, Ivancic, Malekinusic; Bilbija
Aston Villa
Bertrand Traore (muscle), Emiliano Buendia (knee), and Tyrone Mings (knee) will not be available for Thursday. Unai Emery will look to avoid the play-off round, but the Spaniard is still likely to make widespread changes to his starting XI to freshen up after a gruelling week in which they beat the top two Premier League finishers from last season, with a long trip to Brentford upcoming on Sunday.
In-form winger Leon Bailey came off at the break on Saturday evening with muscle fatigue and may be among the regulars who can be rested. Douglas Luiz and Lucas Digne, who will miss Sunday’s game with Brentford through suspension, may well keep their spots.
Jhon Duran and Moussa Diaby, who were paired up front against Legia in the previous round, will undoubtedly come into Emery’s thinking, while the likes of Leander Dendoncker, Clement Lenglet, and Nicolo Zaniolo are all likely to be drafted in the starting XI.
Probable Lineup (4-4-1-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Lenglet, Digne; Zaniolo, Dendoncker, Luiz, Bailey; Diaby; Duran
Key Stats
- Aston Villa have lost only one of their last 14 matches in all competitions.
- Aston Villa have won four in a row in the UEFA Europa Conference League since their defeat in their opener at Legia Warsaw.
- Both teams have scored in five of Aston Villa’s last seven away matches in all competitions.
- Zrinjski Mostar have only lost one of the nine games they have played across Europe this season by more than one goal.
Player to Watch
Leon Bailey
Aston Villa splashed out £25 million to bring Leon Bailey to Villa Park from Bayer Leverkusen in 2021. And despite the fact that he has not quite hit the same heights he did playing in Germany as of yet, the Jamaica international is flying under Unai Emery and has enjoyed a strong start to the new campaign, scoring eight goals and adding seven assists in 22 games across all competitions so far. Expect him to be Villa’s star man on Thursday.
Prediction
Zrinjski Mostar 1-2 Aston Villa
It will be interesting to see what sort of lineup Unai Emery puts out because it would have taken a great deal of effort from Aston Villa to shut out both Manchester City and Arsenal. So, they should surely be able to get the point they need with the rotated team.
Zrinjski Mostar are clearly not brilliant, but they are far from total pushovers and will be looking to sign off in style in front of their home support. With all that in mind, The Hard Tackle predicts a narrow 2-1 victory this midweek.
