St. James’ Park will be rocking for a thrilling Group F finale as a wounded Newcastle United battle Serie A giants AC Milan for the right to reach the Champions League knockout rounds on Wednesday night.
Dubbed the “Group of Death,” with Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, Newcastle United, and AC Milan featuring in it, Group F in the Champions League was always going to go down the wire. Both Newcastle and Milan go into Wednesday’s showdown at St. James’ Park with a chance of leaping into the qualification spots of their group.
Tied on five points, both sides need a win and hope that Dortmund beat PSG in Germany if they are to qualify. Newcastle could go through if Dortmund and PSG draw, as they still possess the superior head-to-head tally against the French side, pinching four points across two games home and away. Milan would have to win by six goals as their goal difference is -4 and they have a tied head-to-head record with PSG.
Eddie Howe’s side come into the finale battered and bruised after a chastening few days as they come off the back of two miserable three-goal defeats to Everton (3-0) and Tottenham (4-1), as injuries and a hectic fixture seem to be finally catching up with them.
The results over the past week have left them seven points outside the top four ahead of their final Champions League group contest. Milan, meanwhile, will arrive on Tyneside after a painful defeat over the weekend. The Rossoneri conceded in the 95th minute to lose 3-2 at Atalanta, having twice come from behind only to fall to a Luis Muriel strike in the fifth minute of second-half injury time.
The reverse fixture ended 0-0 at San Siro. But it looks unlikely that this one will be another stalemate on Wednesday. Neither side have looked defensively solid in their recent clashes, which could make this one a crackling goal show. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.
Team News & Tactics
Newcastle United
Eddie Howe has been without 12 first-team players since the return to club football after November’s international break and has had to start with the same ten outfield players for each of the last five matches, giving Newcastle’s fit players very little respite within that 15-day period. And they look shattered ahead of this must-win tie due to a lack of rotation.
Nick Pope (shoulder), Sven Botman (knee), Jacob Murphy (shoulder), Dan Burn (back), Elliot Anderson (back), Joe Willock (calf), Harvey Barnes (toe), Matt Targett (thigh), and Javi Manquillo (groin) all remain out of action, while Sandro Tonali is suspended for the long term too.
But Sean Longstaff (ankle) and Callum Wilson (thigh) both returned to action from the bench in Sunday’s 4-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. And the pair is expected to start on Wednesday to give Howe the chance to mix his team up.
It won’t fill Newcastle fans with confidence that there will be no Nick Pope to save their blushes between the sticks, especially after Martin Dubravka’s error-prone displays against Everton and Spurs in the Premier League after being thrown into the deep end.
Influential veteran right-back Kieran Trippier has been one of the Magpies’ best players this season, despite his shoddy performances lately. The Englishman has plenty of experience playing in high-pressure games, which should serve the Magpies’ well.
There should be no changes in the rest of the back four, featuring Fabian Schar and Jamaal Lascelles in the heart of the defence, flanked by marauding left-back Valentino Livramento. 17-year-old Lewis Miley could make way for Longstaff in the middle of the park, with Wilson replacing Alexander Isak up top.
Miguel Almiron has not played in the last few weeks, and he was particularly poor against Spurs at the weekend. But given his fine Champions League form and lack of significant rotation options, he should hold his berth on the right side. Anthony Gordon has been absolutely phenomenal this term and is arguably the hardest worker on the pitch. So, he remains a guaranteed starter on the left.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Livramento; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Wilson, Gordon
AC Milan
AC Milan’s defensive crisis remains acute, as Malick Thiaw (hamstring) recently joined Pierre Kalulu (tendon), Simon Kjaer (muscle), Marco Pellegrino (heel), and Mattia Caldara on the sidelines, Kjaer is closest to returning but is still set to miss Wednesday’s game.
Noah Okafor (thigh) and Marco Sportiello (calf) are also sidelined. However, in a major boost, Rafael Leao, who has been nursing a thigh issue, is set to be deemed fit for the trip to England. So, Theo Hernandez may continue to fill in alongside Fikayo Tomori as a centre-back, with Alessandro Florenzi likely to cover the French full-back’s spot on the left.
Christian Pulisic got an assist against Atalanta, which means he now has three assists and five goals in 13 Serie A games. However, the USMNT international forward has yet to score or assist in the Champions League this season.
Olivier Giroud has been in fine scoring form, with only Lautaro Martinez scoring more than his eight Serie A goals this season. The 37-year-old Frenchman will undoubtedly spearhead the AC Milan attack on Wednesday.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Hernandez, Florenzi; Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Musah; Pulisic, Giroud, Leao
Key Stats
- AC Milan are the first Italian side to visit St. James’ Park to face in Europe since Inter in November 2002, winning 4-1 in a Champions League group stage match.
- Newcastle United have lost back-to-back games with an aggregate scoreline of 7-1 since Nick Pope’s injury against Manchester United.
- Three of Newcastle United’s last five matches have produced over 2.5 goals.
- AC Milan have not kept a clean sheet in their last four away games, which have all produced over 2.5 goals.
- Olivier Giroud actually has a phenomenal record against Newcastle, having scored nine goals in 15 appearances.
Player to Watch
Rafael Leao
Leao has been out of action for the past month with a hamstring injury. But AC Milan are hopeful he will be able to start at St. James’ Park and replicate his scintillating performance against Paris Saint-Germain a month ago. The 24-year-old is undoubtedly Milan’s star man, having scored four times and set up three more this term.
Although he has been criticised for lacklustre displays lately, the Portuguese speedster is capable of turning a match in his side’s favour when on song. Milan will need the version of Leao that tore PSG to bits if they are to have any chance of progressing to the Last 16, with qualification now out of their hands.
Prediction
Newcastle United 4-3 AC Milan
There are no two ways about this; Newcastle United have to win this one. The Magpies aren’t in the best of forms. But the only way they can progress is by winning this game and hoping for the best in the other result elsewhere.
When things go from bad to worse at St. James’ Park, the ferocious Toon support and Eddie Howe’s troops consistently rise to the occasion. Facing a Milan side with only one fit centre-back is precisely what an injury-stricken Magpies squad needs to re-energise under the bright lights.
At the same time, Milan will have their own plans to capitalise on their hosts’ shattered legs to keep their Last 16 hopes alive. This is going to be all hands on deck, all guns blazing, balls out, and everything on the pitch at St. James’ Park. An early strike could see this one go bananas with so much at stake and turn into an absolute goal-fest, with Newcastle eventually coming out on top.
