A huge South Coast derby clash beckons us on Thursday night, as Southampton host Bournemouth at St. Mary’s for a crucial relegation six-pointer.
Both Southampton and Bournemouth are in the relegation scrap, but the Saints are mired in the bottom three, and nothing less than a win will do for the beleaguered Saints.
Ruben Selles saw his side, who sit at the foot of the Premier League table, throw away a 3-1 lead in the 88th minute at league-leading Arsenal on Friday as they capitulated late on and somehow held on to draw 3-3.
Carlos Alcaraz, Theo Walcott, and Duje Caleta-Car had Southampton cruising by two goals with only minutes left on the clock before Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka conspired at the death to deny Ruben Selles’ side an important three points.
There was a mix of angst and optimism in the air after that draw because if Southampton can play like that away at Arsenal, surely they can win some of the remaining six games to stay in the league.
However, that’s easier said than done against teams on equal footing who sit deep and break with pace, just like Bournemouth. It’s now or never for the Saints as far as their relegation prospects are concerned. They’re just four points off safety heading into the midweek slate of games, and their eleven-year stay in the Premier League is in real jeopardy.
On the other hand, Bournemouth would know they can take a huge step towards Premier League survival with a victory at bottom-side Southampton. The newly-promoted Cherries have won four of their last seven games to boost their hopes of staying up, and another win on Thursday would move them on to 36 points with five games left to play.
However, last Sunday’s 4-0 thrashing at home to West Ham leaves the Cherries nervously looking over their shoulders. Saints striker Che Adams scored the only goal of the game when the two teams last met in the reverse fixture last October, and the hosts’ will be hoping for a similar result to keep their survival hopes alive here.
Team News & Tactics
Southampton
โ @CheAdams_
๐ @janbednarek_A positive fitness update from the boss:
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) April 26, 2023
Ainsley Maitland-Niles is back after missing Friday’s game against parent club Arsenal, while Che Adams is also back for Southampton after recovering from a calf injury to give coach Ruben Selles a huge boost ahead of hosting Bournemouth at St. Mary’s.
Centre-back Jan Bednarek will be due a late concussion check after he was forced off in the first half of that match with a head injury, but long-term absentees Mohamed Salisu, Juan Larios, and Tino Livramento remain sidelined and unavailable.
Selles could continue with his 4-2-3-1 formation here. Despite his mistake-prone performances, Gavin Bazunu looks set to remain the Saints’ number one for the final six matches of the season.
Kyle Walker-Peters and Armel Bella-Kotchap are mainstays in the defence and will most likely handle the left-hand side of the rearguard, with Ainsley Maitland-Niles set to return to the starting XI on the right alongside central defender Duje Caleta-Car.
Romeo Lavia and James Ward-Prowse are also shoo-in starters in the midfield double-pivot after putting on impressive displays at Emirates Stadium. Carlos Alcaraz only played 45 minutes of the same match due to tactical reasons, but he was spectacular with a goal, assist, and goal-saving clearance, so he will keep his position again.
Mohammed Elyounoussi and Adam Armstrong could be trusted to fashion some shots from wide areas. Theo Walcott scored only his second Premier League goal of the season on Friday and has been quietly putting on excellent performances, so much so that he is a certain starter at this point.
All of a sudden, the bench looks to have some strength, with Adams returning to the fold. Paul Onuachu could provide a certain aerial and physical presence, while Kamaldeen Sulemana’s pace and trickery might be reserved for the latter stages of the game to face tired legs.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1):ย Bazunu; Maitland-Niles, Duje Caleta-Car, Bella-Kotchap, Walker-Peters; Ward-Prowse, Lavia; Elyounoussi, Alcaraz, A. Armstrong; Walcott
Bournemouth
Midfielder Hamed Traore and on-loan defender Jack Stephens are both injured; the latter would have been ineligible to play against his parent club regardless. But Cherries boss Gary OโNeil is hopeful midfielder Joe Rothwell will return on Thursday after he was forced off with a mild hamstring issue at halftime against the Hammers.
Gary O’Neil utilised a 3-4-2-1 formation against the Irons and could revert to a 4-4-1-1/4-4-2 formation as he seeks a response from his players after a shambolic defeat in front of their home support, where their backline simply couldn’t deal with set-piece situations.
Neto is set to be chalked between the sticks as usual. He is the first-choice custodian for the south coast outfit at the moment, as he has made some jaw-dropping saves to keep the Cherries in games throughout the season.
"๐๐'๐ง๐ ๐๐ค๐๐ช๐จ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ช๐ง๐๐ก๐ฎ ๐ค๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐ฌ๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐ญ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ข๐." ๐ช pic.twitter.com/ewzDqJ3csJ
— AFC Bournemouth ๐ (@afcbournemouth) April 26, 2023
In central defence, Chris Mepham and Marcos Senesi could be used, flanked by the industrious Adam Smith and Lloyd Kelly. Put simply, it’s a flat back-four, with Smith the only player allowed to maraud forwards on a few occasions to provide width to the wide man.
Marcus Tavernier and Dango Ouattara could start in the wide areas, with the latter possibly coming into the side at the expense of Ryan Christie, who started against the Hammers. Jefferson Lerma is expected to start in the central midfield alongside Rothwell in the Bournemouth lineup.
Philip Billing started on the wings last time out but is likely to start behind the striker against Southampton. Up top, Dominik Solanke should keep his place in the Bournemouth XI after following a super-productive performance at Tottenham with a blank against West Ham.
Probable Lineup (4-4-1-1):ย Neto; Smith, Mepham, Senesi, Kelly; Tavernier, Lerma, Rothwell, Ouattara; Billing; Solanke
Key Stats
- Saints are without a win in seven Premier League fixtures (D3, L4), after recording victories in two of their opening three under Ruben Selles.
- The hosts kept a clean sheet in three of their first four Premier League games under the Spaniard but have conceded in each of the subsequent six, shipping 15 goals in total.
- Southampton would be looking to complete their first league double over Bournemouth here since 2011.
- Saints have won each of their last three league and cup meetings against Bournemouth without conceding a single goal.
- Bournemouth are vying to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time.
Player to Watch
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has been Southampton’s brightest spark in 2023 and put on another stellar display against Arsenal on Friday. The Argentine kept his composure under pressure in the opening minute, capitalising on an Aaron Ramsdale error to beat the Gunners custodian before setting up Theo Walcott for the Saints’ second goal with a superbly timed through-ball.
The 20-year-old has shown himself to be a reliable player for the team. His ability to help the team turnover and his calmness in front of goal were evident during his first-half performance against Arsenal.
But he was already booked, and his aggression in the defensive phase meant Selles took no chances and hooked him off at the interval to prevent a red card and subsequent suspension. However, Alcaraz will be back in the starting XI here and will look to steer his side to a valuable three points against their south coast rivals.
Prediction
Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth
This is all set to be a tight game with few clear-cut chances, and nerves will be tested here. Saints will still be feeling bitter after dropping points so late on against Arsenal despite playing so well, and a defeat would be a devastating blow to their survival hopes. Southampton’s home form has been catastrophic, while Bournemouth had been performing well until they got absolutely smashed by West Ham at the weekend.
While the recent form favours Bournemouth, we are going against the grain in our prediction. This match represents Southampton’s best chance to pick up all three points and keep their hopes of a dramatic late escape alive.
The Arsenal draw could go either way in terms of shifting the mood in the camp; they may either accept their fate or believe there’s something to take from this game, and they are capable of doing so, albeit they won’t keep a clean sheet.
