A highly-anticipated encounter between top-four hopefuls Atalanta and AC Milan is perhaps the fitting way to sign off Sunday’s feisty Serie A fixtures.
Stadio San Siro forms the backdrop for a high-stakes contest that could provide a definite answer to the top-four hopes of AC Milan and Atalanta this season.
AC Milan won the Scudetto earlier than planned last season. Juventus and Inter Milan were both given a much greater chance of finishing top of the table. However, this season has been difficult so far, with Napoli the pace-setters in the fading title race, Milan are among the five-team pack competing for the Champions League qualification places.
The Rossoneri are currently fourth in the table, but it is a close race. Inter are second with 47 points. AS Roma and Milan are next with 44 points each, followed by Lazio with 42 and Atalanta with 41. This race has the promise to be a nail-biter. It may have been much more congested If Juventus had not been docked 15 points for financial breaches.
Stefano Pioli’s side looks to have put their post-World Cup woes behind them and are slowly getting their positive momentum back. Following back-to-back 2-2 draws with Roma and Lecce, Pioli’s team lost three straight games to Lazio (0-4), Sassuolo (2-5), and Inter (0-1). That horrible run led to Pioli’s coming under scrutiny. Since then, they have made it three 1-0 wins on the spin, beating Monza last time out.
Milan’s recent revival can be credited to a tactical adjustment to three at the back from Pioli, who also guided them to a 1-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 tie.
While things seem to be heading in the right direction for AC Milan, the contrary appears to be happening to Atalanta. The visitors have lost three of their last four matches across all competitions. And their top-four bid seems to be in danger of crumbling.
The optimism of a five-match unbeaten run, which included an 8-2 dismantling of Salernitana, after the winter break, has waned a little, with sloppy defeats to Sassuolo and Lecce each side of a 2-0 victory over Lazio, which had seemed like the toughest game in the recent stretch.
There is still somewhat of a points buffer between Atalanta and any other club eyeing the European spots – owing to mostly Juventus’s point deduction. But Gian Piero Gasperini’s men need to put an excellent run together sooner rather than later to seriously push for Champions League qualification.
AC Milan played out a tight 1-1 draw with then out-of-form Atalanta back in August. And ahead of their latest meeting on Saturday at San Siro, The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams.
Team News & Tactics
AC Milan
Game’s never over ❤️🖤 @pumafootball 🤝 #ACMilan 🤝 Koché
Suit up with our 4th Kit ➡️ https://t.co/DZal7rxqEh#SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/UMXo4T1Di6— AC Milan (@acmilan) February 25, 2023
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back in the AC Milan squad earlier this month, and Milan boss Stefano Pioli is steadily increasing his workload in view of a return to the pitch sooner rather than later. Pioli will be delighted to welcome first-choice goalkeeper Mike Maignan back to the fold.
The Frenchman will add even more stability to a defensive rearguard that has looked rock-solid in recent weeks. He is expected to be on the bench for Sunday’s clash against Atalanta, meaning Ciprian Tatarusanu will be between the sticks once more.
AC Milan’s tactical tweak has been apparent in recent games, with Pierre Kalulu, Simon Kjaer, and Malick Thiaw making them a bit more compact and dogged at the back. All three defenders will look to lead the Rossoneri to a fourth consecutive clean sheet in all competitions, although Simon Kjaer could replace Tomori for this clash.
Junior Messias could keep his place at right wing-back in the wake of an injury to Davide Calabria. Theo Hernandez will be on the opposite flank. And the midfield double pivot will consist of Sandro Tonali and Ismael Bennacer, who may also make his return here.
Brahim Diaz should occupy a role as the playmaker behind striker Olivier Giroud, dropping between the lines and trying to create a numerical advantage since the opposition plays a five-man midfield in a 3-5-2.
Rafael Leao has recently come under criticism for his lack of influence on the game. But his speed and dribbling skills make him a dangerous offensive menace as he will take up left-wing/half-space.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Kjaer, Thiaw; Messias, Bennacer, Tonali, Hernandez; Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Atalanta
Atalanta will be without the services of Hans Hateboer (knee) and Duvan Zapata (hamstring), with the former out until the end of the current season. Apart from the aforementioned duo, it is still unclear whether Mario Pasalic will be available after missing the last two Serie A games due to an ankle issue.
Marten de Roon and Giorgio Scalvini are once again available for selection after recently returning from respective injury problems.
Gian Piero Gasperini was not pleased with his team’s performance against Lecce last week. But he is unlikely to make many changes to his starting lineup. However, he will almost certainly need to replace the suspended Merih Demiral at the back. Jose Luis Palomino will fill in to form a back three alongside Berat Djimsiti, and Rafael Toloi. Juan Musso will protect the goal behind them.
⚽️ = 😁 pic.twitter.com/sb3KbhPX1o
— Atalanta B.C. (@Atalanta_BC) February 24, 2023
Teun Koopmeiners and De Roon will be tasked to control the proceedings in the middle of the park. This will allow Davide Zappacosta and Joakim Maehle to put pressure on the Milan full-backs.
Ademola Lookman’s development into an elite striker in Bergamo has been nothing short of extraordinary. Only Napoli’s Victor Osimhen and Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez have scored more goals in Serie A this season. And Lookman has also bagged another two goals in the Coppa Italia, as well as five assists in all competitions.
Luis Muriel could come in for Jeremie Boga up front. Rasmus Hojlund scored in the defeat at Lecce last week and will trouble the Milan defence here.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Musso; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Zappacosta, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Maehle; Muriel, Lookman; Hojlund
Key Stats
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last four Serie A games against Atalanta (W3 D1).
- Atalanta, meanwhile, have seen under 2.5 goals scored in four of their last five matches.
- Atalanta boast one of the best away records in Serie A. La Dea have collected 24 of their 41 points on the road, only Napoli have a better record away from home this season.
- La Dea have failed to score in three of their last four games after netting 20 times in five games prior to that.
Player to Watch
Rasmus Hojlund
Gian Piero Gasperini has a long-standing reputation for getting every ounce of talent out of the players at his disposal, particularly the strikers. Papu Gomez, Josip Ilicic, Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata, and others reached all dizzying heights under the former Inter Milan coach’s tutelage. Young gem Rasmus Hojlund appears to be next in line.
The 20-year-old has scored six goals in 19 Serie A appearances for Atalanta this season, in his first full campaign since joining from Austrian giants Sturm Graz. It is an incredible return on the £15 million Atalanta paid for him this past summer. And they are guaranteed to make a big profit whenever they sell him, with the likes of Real Madrid and Arsenal already circling around him.
However, that is a talk for another time. Hojlund will once again be chomping at the bit to get on the scoresheet, this time against a big shark in AC Milan as he looks to continue his progress, and make a name for himself in the striker market.
Prediction
AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta
These two Lombardy foes have served up some entertaining clashes in recent years, with both teams scoring goals for fun, leaving themselves defensively exposed. And while Atalanta have shown signs of the classic Gasperini free-flowing football, AC Milan have tended to adopt a defense-first policy since the 5-2 smashing at the hands of Sassuolo.
Reverting to the basics in recent weeks has seen Milan emerge from a torrid run to win three games on the bounce in all competitions.
However, each of Milan’s last four games has finished with a narrow 1-0 scoreline. Considering the consequences of this clash between two top-four contenders, this game could be an equally cagey affair with fine margins. Expect La Dea to grab a late goal on the counter-attack to steal a point under the reigning champions’ nose at San Siro.
