Lecce vs AC Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

AC Milan will hope to return to winning ways when they take on Lecce at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare on Saturday.

The games continue to come thick and fast across Europe, and Matchday 18 of the 2022/23 season will begin in Serie A on Friday with the fixture between Napoli and Juventus. Saturday will have two matches on show, with the action ending with the contest featuring Lecce and AC Milan at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.

Lecce returned to Serie A after winning the Serie B title in the 2021/22 season. And the Wolves have enjoyed a memorable 2022/23 campaign thus far. Marco Baroni’s men endured a difficult start to the term but are currently on a five-game unbeaten run. Such a run of results has pushed Lecce to 11th in the standings.

On the other hand, the defence of the Serie A title has not gone swimmingly for AC Milan. Like Lecce, the visitors are on a five-game unbeaten run in the top flight. But Stefano Pioli’s men have failed to string together a long winning run, leaving them seven points behind Napoli. And a 1-0 defeat to Torino despite a numerical advantage sent Milan packing from Coppa Italia this week.

AC Milan clinched a 4-1 win over Lecce the last time the teams met at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. And The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Lecce

Marco Baroni does not have many pressing issues hampering his preparations ahead of the visit of AC Milan. On Saturday, the Lecce manager will be bereft of the services of two first-team players due to fitness problems.

Marin Pongracic (ankle) and Kastriot Dermaku (hamstring) are on the sidelines due to their respective injuries. But there is some good news for Lecce ahead of the game against AC Milan. That is because captain Morten Hjulmand is available after serving a suspension.

The Danish midfielder should return to the starting eleven, with Youssef Maleh making way. Hjulmand will join Alexis Blin and Joan Gonzalez in the middle of the park. The Lecce captain will sit at the base of the midfield unit, with Blin and Gonzalez being the box-to-box midfielders.

Wladimiro Falcone will take his place between the sticks, with Lecce lining up in a 4-3-3 formation in front of him. Samuel Umtiti, on loan from Barcelona, will start at the heart of the defence, with Federico Baschirotto being his central defensive partner. And Antonino Gallo and Valentin Gendrey should be the two full-backs.

As for the offensive unit, Lorenzo Colombo, on loan from AC Milan, will spearhead the Lecce attack. The 20-year-old will join Gabriel Strefezza and Federico Di Francesco in the final third on Saturday. Remi Oudin and Lameck Banda will be among the backup options for Baroni.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Falcone; Gendrey, Baschirotto, Umtiti, Gallo; Blin, Hjulmand, Gonzalez; Strefezza, Colombo, Di Francesco

AC Milan

Unlike his counterpart in the Lecce dugout, Stefano Pioli has a gamut of concerns to deal with ahead of the trip to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. The AC Milan manager will be without nearly a dozen players on Saturday.

Sandro Tonali is the most notable absentee due to a one-match suspension, which he accrued following an accumulation of bookings. In addition, Mike Maignan (calf), Fode Ballo-Toure (shoulder), Alessandro Florenzi (hamstring), Rade Krunic (muscle injury), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (knee), and Ante Rebic (muscle injury) remain on the sidelines.

On top of that, Divock Origi and Simon Kjaer, both of whom have resumed training, might not be fit enough to start. But the duo is inching closer to returning to action after several weeks on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Ciprian Tatarusanu will continue to deputise for Maignan in the goal. AC Milan will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of the Romanian goalkeeper.

Fikayo Tomori and Pierre Kalulu have formed Milan’s strongest central defensive pairing in the last twelve months. And the duo should resume the formidable partnership on Saturday. Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez should be the two full-backs.

Tommaso Pobega should fill Tonali’s void in the middle of the park. And the Italian midfielder will join Ismael Bennacer in the double pivot. Bennacer has signed a new contract with AC Milan this week and will be raring to go on Saturday.

Brahim Diaz will be the most advanced player for AC Milan. The Serie A champions have scheduled talks to sign the Spaniard permanently amid his recent upturn in his form. And Diaz will pull the strings in the final third, combining with Alexis Saelemaekers, Rafael Leao, and Olivier Giroud.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Kalulu, Hernandez; Bennacer, Pobega; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud

Key Stats

• Lecce have won only two of their 32 Serie A meetings against AC Milan (2-1 in 1997 and 1-0 in 2006): a 6.3% win rate, their second lowest among sides they have faced 10+ times in the top-flight (6.1% v AS Roma).
• Lecce are unbeaten in their last five Serie A games. And they can go six in a row in the competition for the first time since April 2012 under Serse Cosmi. The Wolves are also in line to keep a clean sheet in two top-flight matches in a row for the first time since 2012.
• AC Milan drew nil-nil in their last Serie A match against a promoted side (vs Cremonese in November). They are in line to fail to score in two such games in a row for the first time since 2016 (vs Bologna and Carpi).
• Lecce are one of two sides yet to score in the opening 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season (alongside Atalanta). On the other hand, AC Milan have scored seven goals in the same period, the joint-most in the competition.
• Lorenzo Colombo has been directly involved in more Serie A goals than any other Lecce player this season (four goals, two assists). The striker has played 11 games for AC Milan and scored one goal in the 2020/21 UEFA Europa League qualifying process against Bodo/Glimt.

Player to Watch

Rafael Leao

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An inconsistent offensive unit has been the undoing for AC Milan thus far this season. While the defenders have not been as formidable as they can be, the attackers need to pull their socks up. And the players in the final third will invariably look at Rafael Leao for inspiration.

The Portuguese international has been the standout performer for AC Milan this season. And it is hardly surprising that bigwigs like Chelsea and Manchester City are keen on signing him. But Leao is reportedly ready to sign a new contract with AC Milan. And he will be eager to take the Rossoneri to the summit of Serie A in the coming months.

Prediction

Lecce 0-1 AC Milan

The match pits two teams on a five-match unbeaten run in Serie A. And Lecce will not make things easy for AC Milan at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. The Wolves have been on an upward trajectory lately and will look to remain clear of the dreaded relegation zone. And they should be up for the task of frustrating the Rossoneri this weekend.

Meanwhile, Stefano Pioli’s charges will be desperate to embark on a run of consecutive wins to stand a chance of defending their Serie A title. And with Olivier Giroud returning to the starting eleven, AC Milan should have the quality to edge a frustrating match. The Hard Tackle predicts a 1-0 win for the reigning champions.