Giant-killers Japan will look to continue their fairytale run at the Qatar 2022 World Cup when they face 2018 finalists Croatia in the round of 16 on Monday.
Croatia have never lost in the last 16 in FIFA World Cup, whereas Japan have never advanced past this round. But history will matter little when they lock horns against each other in the Round of 16 battle at Al-Janoub Stadium on Monday.
Japan have been a breath of fresh air at the World Cup and enters this match brimming with confidence as one of the tournament’s dark horses. Drawn into the supposed “group of death” alongside Spain and Germany, Japan upset the apple cart by making light work of the group, topping it with flying colors, and beating both perennial tournament giants Spain and Germany on the way.
They produced the most odd group stage performance of any nation at the World Cup, with a loss to inferior Costa Rica sandwiched between two massive giant killings by Germany and Spain, in which they struggled massively in the first halves, desperately fighting for their lives and staying in the games, before turning into a world-beating side in the second.
They have booked their place in the last 16 for the third straight tournament. However, the path after that is yet to be carved in their history books. These players will be eager to be the first to enter their names in the history books by doing the same.
However, standing in their way is an experienced Croatia side that just have a penchant for winning knockout games and making deep runs in this competition. While this is only the third time the Croats have reached the last 16, they made it to the last four on both previous occasions, in 1998 and 2018, finishing as runners-up four years ago.
Questions were asked of Croatia after their uninspiring scoreless draw against Morocco in their opener: Can they make another deep run? Or is their “golden generation” past their peak to impact games on the biggest stage?
They responded in spectacular fashion, beating Canada 4-1 to knock the Maple Leafs out of the World Cup. The 2018 World Cup runners-up put in a far more polished performance despite falling behind early, and they then backed it up with another resilient display to send Belgium home, albeit they rode their luck in that one at times.
Looking back, that dominant draw against a spirited Moroccan side that absolutely annihilated Canada and Belgium turns out to be a good point earned. Still, they were far from convincing during the group stages, but they did enough to secure the second spot.
And here, at The Hard Tackle, we will run the rule over the two sides ahead of this crucial matchup at Al-Janoub Stadium.
Team News & Tactics
Japan
Due to an accumulation of yellow cards, Ko Itakura will be suspended for this game. Otherwise, Japan should have no fresh injury concerns heading into this game, and coach Hajime Moriyasu should have a full squad to choose from here.
Japan looked to be under the cosh when they fell behind in the first half against Spain and Germany, but Moriyasu helped turn the tide with his substitutions and tactical changes.
Samurai Blue’s tactical diversity is one of their most valuable strengths as a squad, and their ability to play in transition and frustrate heavy-possession opponents is especially important in this clash with Croatia.
The Japanese might choose to sit deeper and impose their physical approach on the more technically adept opposition. So, don’t be surprised to see them start their better players on the bench and switch their formation with fluidity in-game.
Moriyasu will set his side up in a 3-4-3 system to start with. Both Takehiro Tomiyasu and Maya Yoshida are excellent with the ball at their feet and as ball progressors from the back. Shogo Taniguchi will be the sitting defender of the back three in front of Shūichi Gonda.
The pivotal figure in setting the press and winning the ball high upfield is Daichi Kamada, who is also this side’s main attacking creator, and he’s always deadly in transition. The Eintracht Frankfurt playmaker is well-trained to play for a Japanese side that likes to press high and force turnovers to attack in transition.
While they have a plethora of good-quality options on their roster, Moriyasu tends to pick players who make it a more workhorse and cohesive frontline. Expect Ritsu Doan and Celtic striker Daizen Maeda to be the starters ahead of more appealing options in Takefuso Kubo, Takumi Minamino, and Karou Mitoma, who all will be utilised as a cohort off the bench to turn the game on its head.
Those are players who are more than capable around the penalty area if Kamada and the midfield can get them the required supply. Takuma Asano epitomises the importance of impact subs, having fired more shots than any Japan player in the group stage (8), despite the fact he didn’t start any of their three games, averaging a shot every 13 minutes.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Gonda; Tomiyasu, Taniguchi, Yoshida; Ito, Morita, Tanaka, Nagatomo; Doan, Maeda, Kamada
Croatia
Similar to his counterpart in the Japan dugout, manager Zlatko Dalic has no fresh injury concerns to deal with, and a full deck of cards to pick his full-strength starting XI.
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While this Croatian team is getting older, they may rely on their wealth of international experience, having managed to reach the competition’s final four years ago, something Japan lacks.
There’s a lot of experience and familiarity on their roster, beginning with the same manager, Zlatko Dalic, guiding the side. His team will be led by its midfield, which contains superstar Luka Modric and Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic. Meanwhile, Marcelo Brozovic should be the midfield three’s backbone once again, protecting the backline.
Although they failed to score in two of their three group-stage matches, one thing sticks out. Croatia is defensively equipped to face high-pressing opponents such as Japan. This is due to the rock-solid centre-back pairing of Dejan Lovren and Josko Gvardiol in front of goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic.
In fact, Gvardiol’s amazing last-ditch tackle to deny Belgium striker Romelu Lukaku helped Croatia advance to the knockout stages on Thursday. The young defender is one of the brightest prospects in football right now, and many top European clubs had been linked with the coveted RB Leipzig defender even before the tournament.
More impressive performances on the biggest stages in Qatar have helped to enhance the 20-year-old’s stock even further, leading to more speculation regarding his future.
Attacking full-backs Josip Juranovic and Borna Sosa are vitally important to add width and deliver high-quality crosses, as well as being very capable of scoring themselves.
Andrej Kramaric is Croatia’s top scorer with two goals, both against Canada. However, he, along with Marko Livaja and Ivan Perisic, must increase their output if Croatia are to repeat their success from the previous tournament.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Livakovic; Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol, Sosa; Kovacic, Brozovic, Modric; Kramaric, Livaja, Perisic
Key Stats
- This will be Japan’s third World Cup encounter with Croatia, with them without a win and goal in the previous two – a 0-1 defeat in 1998 and a goalless draw in 2006. Those two matches are Croatia’s only previous World Cup games against an Asian nation.
- Croatia are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 FIFA World Cup matches.
- Croatia have drawn five of their past six tournament knockout games, including three 1-1 draws at Russia 2018, where they remarkably reached the final.
- Japan have reached the round of 16 of the World Cup for a fourth time, , including both of the past two tournaments. They never advanced beyond this stage, losing to Turkey in 2002, Paraguay (on penalties) in 2010, and Belgium in 2018.
- Should they win here, they will become only the third Asian nation to reach the World Cup quarterfinals after DPR Korea in 1966 and the Republic of Korea in 2002.
Player to Watch
Luka Modric
Despite being 37 years old, Modric is still hailed as one of the best midfielders in the world. And he continues to prove it at the World Cup with a string of midfield masterclass displays. Modric has demonstrated exceptional vision and synchronisation throughout his career, allowing him to effectively handle countless complex on-pitch tactical scenarios.
The Croat is well-known for his superior cognitive abilities. Modric’s experience, along with his ability to carry the ball across half spaces could go a long way in helping Croatia dominate a relatively inexperienced Japanese midfield. His creative essence may also serve as the main source of chances for the Chequered Ones, effectively making him the most important player on the pitch.
And we haven’t yet talked about his technical elegance and gifted playmaking skills, with many nuances to his skillset which make his impact to be both exceptional and distinguished. There’s hardly a better passer of the ball in world football, while he still has the legs to get past his man if needed. Should Japan let him dictate the proceeding, they’ll be in trouble for sure.
Prediction
Japan 2-1 Croatia
Croatia’s technical talent is astounding, with their midfield trio excelling in ball retention and retrieval. They’re sure to have a lot of control and possession in this match, but Japan have shown they can deal with it. Their two victories versus Spain and Germany came with a mere 17% and 26% of possession, respectively, and they scored four goals despite having little time with the ball.
Expecting Japan to pull off another Germany or Spain-esque performance is pretty reasonable. They could certainly create a few attacking chances and score a goal in this match and expect them to as they push more numbers forward.
They have a knack for lightning-quick counter-attacks and a wide variety of players on standby waiting to make a difference. For example, former Liverpool star Takumi Minamino has only had 23 minutes of action, the same goes for Arsenal defender Tomiyasu, among others who are fresh and will all be chomping at the bit to make a splash off the bench.
On the other hand, developing a potent offensive formula has not been on Croatia’s checklist at this tournament, as they have failed to score in two out of their three group games. Thus, the Hard Tackle predicts the Japanese to go through with a narrow 2-1 victory over the Croats.
