A familiar opponent, but a different Liverpool, with Atletico Madrid visiting Anfield in their UEFA Champions League opener on Wednesday.
Virgil van Dijk’s 92nd-minute goal settled Liverpool’s last meeting with Atletico Madrid at Anfield, completing a 3-2 victory on 17 September 2025. That result extended the Merseyside club’s recent control of this fixture, while the visitors arrive trying to overturn a difficult record against English opposition. The Champions League opener therefore carries two layers. Liverpool must make a strong start under Andoni Iraola, and Atletico must show that their European experience can finally translate into this particular test.
Neither side faces a supplied win-only qualification demand, so a defeat would not end the campaign, but both teams need the first result to establish the tone of the league phase. Liverpool have the stronger recent home story against Spanish clubs, while Atletico Madrid’s broader record against English teams gives the visitors a clear historical problem to solve.
For the home side, this is an opportunity to make Iraola’s first European campaign feel settled quickly. Their latest domestic result was a win, and they carry an unbeaten recent sequence into the match after a run of one victory and two draws. That makes a controlled home victory the obvious target, but another dropped lead or a draw would leave the new manager with a less convincing opening than the occasion demands.
Liverpool’s recent attacking output has been positive, with six goals across their last three league matches, although they have conceded four in the same run. Atletico’s calculation is different. Diego Simeone’s side can pursue the win without turning the opener into an open contest, especially after their latest league result ended in defeat.
They have still scored seven goals across their last four league matches, so this is not a side arriving without attacking threat, but conceding six in that sequence has left room for Liverpool to attack. Atletico’s established European structure should help them manage the occasion; another loss would instead reinforce the concern that English opponents remain an uncomfortable obstacle.
Team News: Iraola’s first European XI meets Simeone’s settled structure
Liverpool’s predicted team keeps the 4-2-3-1 that has been used in all three matches this season. Alisson Becker should hold goal behind a back four of Jeremie Frimpong, Jeremy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk and Milos Kerkez. The skipper remains the leadership point in the line, while Jacquet has started each of the three latest matches and should continue on the right side of the centre-back pairing. Kerkez is expected to retain the left-back role despite a difficult current run.
Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai form the double pivot, with Florian Wirtz ahead of them as the central number 10. Szoboszlai’s penalties give him an extra responsibility when Liverpool reach the final third, while Wirtz is the player around whom the attacking structure should rotate.
Cody Gakpo is expected to start from the right of the attacking three, with Bradley Barcola on the left and Alexander Isak through the middle. Barcola’s first Liverpool start follows his debut against Ipswich Town at the weekend. Isak supplies the central reference and has three goals in two recent appearances.
Liverpool have several absences that affect depth around the team. Joe Gomez, Federico Chiesa, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Hugo Ekitike, and Conor Bradley remain unavailable; the most direct consequence is that the double pivot and central attacking structure have fewer alternative profiles available. Ekitike’s absence removes another striker option.
Probable Liverpool Lineup (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Frimpong, Jacquet, van Dijk, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Gakpo, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak
Probable Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Marc Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Lee, Alex Baena
Atletico Madrid are expected to use their most familiar formation, 4-4-2 against Liverpool. Jan Oblak starts behind Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Hancko and Alejandro Grimaldo, with Hancko the left-sided defender who gives the back line its most authoritative current presence.
Morten Hjulmand and Pablo Barrios should occupy central midfield, while Ademola Lookman and Giuliano Simeone provide the width. Alex Baena and Lee Kang-in complete the front two, giving Atletico two players able to occupy Liverpool’s centre-backs rather than leaving one forward isolated.
Hancko, Hjulmand, Lookman, Llorente, Pubill, Barrios, and Lee all arrive with strong recent form in the selection, and that gives Atletico’s predicted XI a settled look despite the latest defeat. Sørloth is out with an injury, while Arnau Ortiz is suspended. The first absence reduces the available options for the front two; the second removes another squad choice, so the selected pairing carries particular importance.
Tactics: Isak’s hold-up work can decide whether Liverpool control the game
Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 is designed to let the double pivot and the three attacking midfielders push for the win without abandoning protection behind the ball. The shape has remained consistent across the recent run, and the home side’s recent figures support the idea that it can create the larger share of the attacking play.
Liverpool have averaged 1.79 expected goals and 61.7% possession across their last three matches. Atletico Madrid’s corresponding figures are lower for attacking expectation, at 1.03 expected goals across their last four, while their opponents have averaged 1.54 expected goals against them.
Those numbers describe recent output rather than a permanent style, but they point to the basic contest. Liverpool should have more of the ball and more territory, while Atletico Madrid’s 4-4-2 gives them two forwards to screen the first pass and protect the central midfield line. Liverpool want the first pressure to move the game forward; Los Rojiblancos want to prevent that pressure from becoming a sustained home attack. Both teams are prepared to seek the win while accepting a draw rather than breaking their structure recklessly.
The most important meeting is Alexander Isak against David Hancko. Isak is Liverpool’s central outlet, and his job is to occupy Atletico Madrid’s centre-backs long enough for Wirtz, Barcola and Gakpo to receive in front of the defensive block.
Hancko is the defender most likely to step out and challenge that reference, and his current form gives Atletico Madrid a credible answer to Liverpool’s preferred route through the middle. If Isak pins the back line, the Reds can keep their double pivot behind the ball and sustain pressure. If Hancko keeps the duel in front of him, the hosts may lose the central platform that makes the 4-2-3-1 coherent and have to consider a 4-4-2 with another central body.
That duel also determines how much freedom the rest of the match offers. Atletico’s two forwards can screen the initial build-up, but they cannot fully protect Hancko if Isak repeatedly brings the centre-backs toward their own goal. On the other hand, if Hancko wins the first contacts, Atletico can keep Liverpool’s attacks in front of the block and make the home side circulate the ball without finding Wirtz in useful positions.
Wirtz’s contest with Morten Hjulmand is the second important mechanism. The German playmaker should look for the space between Atletico’s midfield four and front two, while Hjulmand is the midfielder best placed to close that lane. If Wirtz receives cleanly, Liverpool can keep their attacking connections close to the penalty area.
If Hjulmand blocks the route, Atletico can force the game into a narrower pattern and make Liverpool decide whether to add another central midfielder. The visitors also have a route from dead balls: their recent set-piece expected-goals returns included 0.29, 0.43, 1.58 and 0, whereas Liverpool’s three latest figures were 0.10, 0.09 and 0.15. Liverpool must therefore avoid giving Atletico repeated opportunities to turn pressure into free-kick or corner situations.
Prediction: Liverpool have the clearer route, but draw remains possible
The lean is Liverpool to win, held with medium confidence rather than certainty. The home side have the more convincing recent attacking baseline, the stronger recent result sequence and a formation that gives Isak a clear job against Atletico Madrid’s backline. The predicted 4-2-3-1 also places Wirtz close to the areas where Atletico’s 4-4-2 can become stretched if Isak keeps the centre-backs occupied.
Lean: Liverpool win
Scoreline: 2-1/1-0/1-1
The strongest case against Liverpool is that Atletico Madrid may prevent the central connections from forming. If Hjulmand closes Wirtz and Hancko keeps Isak from pinning the defensive line, the visitors can hold a compact block and make Liverpool rely on slower circulation around the outside.
Atletico’s dead-ball threat then becomes more important, particularly if Liverpool’s double pivot is forced to defend rather than control the territory. That combination could produce a tight match in which Liverpool have possession but do not create enough separation to win.
The scoreline range is 2-1, 1-0 or 1-1. Liverpool are the side most likely to break the balance, but the match could settle into a low-margin home victory or remain level if Atletico Madrid’s central screen works.
The shape change that can alter the final phase
The late tactical lever belongs to both managers, but it is especially clear for Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone can move to a 4-1-4-1 if the central lane becomes too open, placing an extra screening midfielder in front of the defence and asking the wide players to protect the block more narrowly.
Liverpool have their own response in a 4-4-2 if they need another central presence, but their selected double pivot already gives them a measure of protection. The first manager to make that adjustment without surrendering the attacking threat may decide whether the opener finishes as a narrow home win or a controlled draw.
