Aston Villa’s title dreams have hit a harsh reality, and the xG stats screaming overperformance have now been exposed.
Aston Villa’s Premier League charge hit a speed bump with a gritty 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on Saturday. That result capped a run where they have failed to win three of their last four league outings, starting with a frustrating 1-0 home defeat to Everton.
Just weeks back, Unai Emery’s men were being touted as genuine title outsiders. Now, they sit third with 47 points from 25 games, but Liverpool lurk eight points behind in sixth with a game in hand. The gap feels bridgeable, and the pressure is mounting.
What changed so quickly? The answer lies in the numbers, those underlying stats that do not lie. Aston Villa have been living on borrowed time, and the cracks are finally showing. Emery himself admitted as much earlier in the season. Back when Villa were firing on all cylinders, he laid it out plain: their only aim was the title. No settling for top four or Europa League scraps. That bold talk fueled the hype.
Fans dreamed of UEFA Champions League qualification at Villa Park, with Ollie Watkins leading the line and Matty Cash bombing forward. But football has a way of humbling the overconfident. Recent results tell a story of squandered leads and missed chances.
The Bournemouth stalemate was typical, as Morgan Rogers gave them the lead, only for Rayan to equalise on his home debut. It is the kind of game they would have ground out six months ago. Now, it feels like a regression.
The slump in sharp focus
Let us break down that troubling run. Aston Villa’s last four Premier League matches paint a sorry picture, kicking off with that narrow 1-0 loss to Everton at home. Thierno Barry’s second-half strike exposed their sluggish start, and they never recovered despite piling on pressure.
Then came the 2-0 win at Newcastle United, themselves under the pump, on January 25, where Watkins bagged a goal in stoppage time to briefly lift spirits. But the stumbles returned fast. Brentford nicked a 1-0 victory at Villa Park on February 1, thanks to Dango Ouattara’s strike just before halftime. There was no response from Emery’s side after that.
Fast forward to Bournemouth away, and it was another case of dropping points from a winning spot. Rogers’s early goal had them ahead, but defensive lapses let the Cherries back in before Rayan salvaged a point for the home side.
These are not isolated slips. Aston Villa have leaked goals late in games, turning potential triumphs into draws or defeats. In the bigger picture, they have dropped points from winning positions more often than most. That is not the mark of title contenders. It is the hallmark of teams riding luck rather than dominating.
Liverpool, with their game in hand, could have cut that eight-point deficit to five in one fell swoop. Sixth place brings Europa League football, sure. But Aston Villa’s third spot is not safe, as clubs are certainly piling up the pressure.
xG numbers don’t lie and they don’t read well for Aston Villa
Here is where the real story emerges. Advanced metrics from Understat lay bare Aston Villa’s fragility. They have overperformed their expected numbers for months, but reality is biting back. After 25 games, The Villans sit on 47 points with a +9 goal difference. Solid, right? But dig into xG, xGA, and xPts, and the shine fades.
Understat’s league table shows Villa with an xG of 34.79, good for 12th place. That means they’ve created decent chances, averaging 1.39 per game. Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers have chipped in, but finishing has been wasteful lately.
On the flip side, xGA stands at 38.17, ranking them 12th defensively. They are conceding quality shots at a worrying rate, especially from set pieces and counters. The xPts tally? Just 31.46, placing them 13th in the league. That is a massive 15.54 points below their actual haul. No team has overachieved more. Liverpool, by contrast, sit closer to their xPts of 41.61 with superior underlying numbers across the board.
Consider the last four games specifically. Aston Villa’s xG drops to around 4.2 total (1.05 per match), while xGA climbs to 5.1. They are not creating enough and leaking too much. Against Bournemouth, they managed 1.1 xG but shipped 1.3. Brentford’s lone goal came from 0.8 xG, but Villa could not respond.
The Everton defeat was even starker: 0.9 xG for Villa versus 1.2 for the Toffees. Early in the season, they beat Arsenal 2-1 at home on December 6 despite an xG edge of just 1.4 to the Gunners’ 1.8. Luck with the woodwork and heroic defending papered over cracks. Now, without that variance, the true level shows. Emery’s high press works in bursts, but sustained pressure exposes the backline.
| Metric (25 Games) | Aston Villa | League Rank | Top Teams Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 34.79 | 8th | Arsenal: 50.49 (1st) |
| xGA | 38.17 | 10th | Man City: 30.4 (2nd) |
| xPts | 31.46 | 7th | Arsenal: 54.76 (1st) |
| xGD (Overall) | -3.38 | 10th | Man City: +19 (2nd) |
Tactical Flaws Fueling the Fire
So why is this happening? Start up front. Ollie Watkins has been a revelation, but his dry spell coincides with the slump. The Englishman found the back of the net vs Newcastle United, but went quiet against Everton, Brentford, and Bournemouth. Aston Villa’s attack relies too heavily on him, while Rogers and Buendia contribute, but depth is thin.
Without a secondary scorer, xG dries up when he is marked tight. Unai Emery’s 4-2-3-1 works when pressing high, but against parked buses like Bournemouth’s or Everton’s resilient shape, they lack incision. Crosses fly aimlessly, shots blocked.
Defensively, it is worse. xGA spikes come from set-piece chaos and transition moments. Bournemouth’s equaliser stemmed from a quick throw-in exposing Matty Cash on the flank. Brentford punished a midfield lapse, while Everton capitalised on a static high line.
Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres pair well on paper, but communication falters under duress. Emery rotates wisely, but injuries to key subs have hurt. Their PPDA (passes per defensive action) has worsened lately, meaning opponents build attacks too easily.
Add in Cash’s occasional forward forays, leaving gaps, and you see the pattern. It is not panic stations yet, but tweaks are needed, perhaps a back three against top sides or fresher legs in wide areas.
Compare this to Liverpool. Arne Slot’s men concede fewer high-xG shots thanks to disciplined shape. They are sixth partly due to fixtures, but their metrics suggest a climb. Villa must match that control to hold third. Emery knows it; he has won leagues before. But ignoring data risks a top-four exit.
The road ahead: Champions League heaven or Europa League hell?
What now for Aston Villa? The run-in offers hope and peril. Upcoming clashes with Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds United in the league are winnable, but slip-ups like those four could multiply. Third brings Champions League revenue, vital for squad investment. Sixth secures it too, but with a game in hand, Liverpool smell blood. Manchester United and Chelsea hover, ready to pounce.
Emery’s experience buys time. He turned Aston Villa from relegation fodder to contenders in two years. If he shores up defence and reignites Watkins, they rebound. But persist with the same tactics, and xG regression drags them down. Fans won’t accept Europa after title talk. It is Champions League or bust.
