Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Preview and Prediction

Unai Emery’s resurgent Aston Villa side face their biggest threat this season as they take on Premier League leaders Arsenal at Villa Park.

The Unai Emery and Mikel Arteta rivalry has been an interesting one, which has seen plenty of victories and revenge over the last few years. Going back to the 2023/24 season, it was Aston Villa’s victory at the Emirates that was seen as the main reason for Arsenal narrowly missing out on the title, and last season, both teams had their say and influence in the title race.

Emery’s charges were down and out following the first five games of the season, when they only managed to score one goal, which came in the fifth game in that run. With the Birmingham giants languishing in 18th spot, Aston Villa have enjoyed a resurgent run that has seen them climb up to third in the standings.

The West Midlands outfit are steadily cementing their top-four credentials, but they did have to fight back from a deficit in midweek against Brighton. Ollie Watkins regained form in a timely manner for Emery’s side, scoring a brace and setting up a thrilling finale, which the Villans triumphed in. During this current impressive run, Villa have managed to push aside Manchester City, but succumbed to Liverpool. So, this Arsenal clash will be key to test their character.

Meanwhile, Arsenal got back to winning ways earlier this week following their comfortable yet a little nervous victory over Brentford at the Emirates. Following an early goal from the in-form Mikel Merino from a Ben White cross, the Gunners were the dominant side, but were unable to find another goal to add to their tally.

The lack of another goal brought about a sense of nerves within the stadium, but not only did Arsenal never look like they would concede a big chance Bukayo Saka settled the crowd with a late second strike. The victory allowed Mikel Arteta’s side to maintain a five-point advantage over Manchester City, who had already won their midweek clash on Tuesday.

The three points in the bag somewhat alleviate the pressure on Arsenal ahead of their trip to Villa Park, but that does not negate the fact that this is another must-win encounter. Irrespective of the results at the weekend, the Gunners will retain top spot, but Arteta will want to maintain the five-point advantage at the very least, as well as replicate Arsenal’s display away to Aston Villa last season when they won the clash 2-0.

Team News & Tactics

Aston Villa

Unai Emery will assess his squad after the exertions in midweek away at Brighton & Hove Albion before making his selection decisions. On paper, the Aston Villa manager may have a similar squad for the Saturday lunchtime kick-off against Arsenal, while also confirming in midweek that No.1 keeper Emiliano Martinez may not be available.

The Argentine international was a late withdrawal from the lineup with a back complaint, and Marco Bizot should continue between the sticks against Arsenal. Tyrone Mings and Ross Barkley are the other absentees with thigh and knee issues, respectively, and Emery will possibly have his other players for selection.

The Aston Villa boss may yet make a few tweaks from the midweek setup, as key man Youri Tielemans might come in for Amadou Onana to refresh the midfield setting. Evan Guessand’s place is also under threat as Emiliano Buendia could get a shout, although it is former Arsenal academy ace and midweek goalscorer Donyel Malen who is seriously pushing for a start on the left wing.

Morgan Rogers and John McGinn are certain starters for Aston Villa, while Emery will be happy with Watkins’s return to goalscoring form. The former Arsenal target will lead the line for Villa, and e will hope for another top performance against the Gunners, something he has done well in the past.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Bizot; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Tielemans, Kamara; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins

Arsenal

The victory over Brentford did come at a cost as Cristhian Mosquera limped off with an ankle issue late in the first half. Given the defensive injuries Arsenal are currently faced with, losing the Spaniard will be a blow for Mikel Arteta, although there is positive hope with William Saliba’s fitness.

Mosquera seems like a big doubt, and should Saliba not manage to be match fit, Arteta might use a brand new central defensive partnership of Jurrien Timber and Piero Hincapie. The latter is certain to start, given key man Gabriel Magalhaes is still injured following the most recent international break and not expected to be back until another month. Ben White should retain his place at right-back if Timber starts centrally.

Meanwhile, the other big injury worry is for key midfielder Declan Rice, who went off with an apparent calf issue. The Arsenal record signing did tell a reporter after the game that he was fine and ready for action at the weekend. However, Arteta leaned towards caution and insisted he would decide after the final training session on Friday.

Beyond that, Kai Havertz remains sidelined and is in a race against time to be fit before Christmas. Leandro Trossard is probably closing in on a return and could feature on the left if he is deemed fit. Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze could return to the starting lineup, while Martin Odegaard and current striker Merino are expected to keep their places.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Hincapie, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Merino

Key Stats

  • Aston Villa have won eight of their last nine matches in the Premier League.
  • An Aston Villa win could move them within three points of Arsenal in the Premier League standings. However, the Gunners have won on six of their last nine trips to Villa Park.
  • Arsenal are undefeated in their last 11 matches in the Premier League. The Gunners have lost just one of their last 21 Premier League away games (W11 D9), going down 1-0 at Liverpool in August.
  • Since the start of March, no side has won more Premier League games than Aston Villa (16, level with Manchester City). The Villans have won eight of their last nine league games, with the exception a 2-0 loss at Liverpool in November.

Player to Watch

Eberechi Eze

Embed from Getty Images

The untimely injury to Leandro Trossard following the Bayern Munich clash has posed a new problem for Mikel Arteta, with the left side of the attack still looking the weakest of all the positions on the pitch. Gabriel Martinelli is an option, but he has not proven his worth this season as a starter. So, Eze could be allowed a chance if Trossard is not deemed fit once again.

Eze has performed decently well, and the game against Villa will be a must-win encounter for the Gunners. For Arteta, the priority issue is resolving the left side conundrum. Hence, Eze must have a proper performance and give the team a regular option on the left wing, as Mikel Odegaard is likely to start and feature in Eze’s preferred central role.

Prediction

Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal

Aston Villa have managed to pose a threat to Arsenal and have done so successfully, although the difference in this game will come down to the overall quality of the two teams. Unai Emery’s side are in a rich vein of form, and he will want to cement his team’s place in the top-four race, but there are question marks whether they can topple Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta has proven he is tactically superior to most of the managers he has faced in England and Europe this season, and this will be another chess match of sorts. The game could be similar to the fixture from last season at Villa Park, and like then, Arsenal could get a solid victory by breaking down an otherwise stubborn Aston Villa defence.

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