Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli: Preview and Prediction

Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli will be eager to return to winning ways when they clash at Signal Iduna Park on Friday.

The international break is behind us, with the 2024/25 Bundesliga season resuming with Matchday 7 on Friday. The latest round of fixtures gets underway at Signal Iduna Park, where Borussia Dortmund will host a struggling FC St. Pauli, with both teams keen on clinching three points this week.

Borussia Dortmund showed positive signs in the early days of the 2024/25 season, especially in the UEFA Champions League. However, the Black and Yellows have lost two of their last three Bundesliga matches while winning only half of their top-flight outings thus far this term. The poor run has left Nuri Sahin’s men sixth in the standings.

As for FC St. Pauli, they have been one of the worst teams in the 2024/25 season thus far but showed signs of a turnaround before the international break. The Kiezkicker clinched four points in three games ahead of the hiatus, with the returns helping them come out of the drop zone. However, their goalscoring woes might cause problems as the season wears on.

The most recent league clash featuring Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli at Westfalenstadion came in the 2010/11 season, with the hosts clinching a 2-0 win. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Player to Watch

Borussia Dortmund

Nuri Sahin has several roster issues hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixtures. Against FC St. Pauli on Friday, the Borussia Dortmund manager might be bereft of the services of as many as seven first-team players.

Yan Couto is the latest absentee after he picked up a muscle injury. The Brazilian international has joined Karim Adeyemi (hamstring), Julien Duranville (thigh), and Giovanni Reyna (groin) on the sidelines. In addition, Niklas Sule, Julian Ryerson, and Maximilian Beier are recovering from illness.

Gregor Kobel is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Borussia Dortmund lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him against FC St. Pauli. The backline should feature Julian Ryerson, Nico Schlotterbeck, Waldemar Anton, and Ramy Bensebaini, with Sahin likely taking a chance with Ryerson in Couto’s absence.

As for the midfield unit, Marcel Sabitzer and Pascal Gross should pair up in the double pivot, with Emre Can remaining on the bench. Julian Brandt will reprise the no. 10 role, with Donyell Malen and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens being the two wide attackers. Finally, Serhou Guirassy will lead the line for the home side against FC St. Pauli.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Sabitzer, Gross; Malen, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy

FC St. Pauli

Like his counterpart in the Borussia Dortmund dugout, Alexander Blessin has a few pressing issues to deal with ahead of the trip to Signal Iduna Park. The FC St. Pauli manager will be without at least five first-team players.

Soren Ahlers (knee), Sascha Burchert (muscular), Ben Voll (jaw), Elias Saad (ankle), and Simon Zoller (thigh) remain on the sidelines. In addition, Blessin is sweating over the fitness of Carlo Boukhalfa (thigh), who might not be fit enough to take on Borussia Dortmund on Friday.

Nikola Vasilj is the only recognised goalkeeper fit and will take his spot between the sticks, with St. Pauli lining up in a 3-4-3 formation in front of him against Borussia Dortmund on Friday. The central defensive unit should feature Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Karol Mets.

Manolis Saliakas and Lars Ritzka should be the two wing-backs, with the duo providing width in the final third. In addition, they will often drop deep in the defensive phases, with the formation changing to a 5-4-1.

Robert Wagner and captain Jackson Irvine will pair up in the central midfield partnership, looking to keep things tight in the middle of the park. Johannes Eggestein will lead the line for FC St. Pauli, with Morgan Guilavogui and Oladapo Afolayan being the two wide attackers.

Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Saliakas, Irvine, Wagner, Ritzka; Afolayan, Eggestein, Guilavogui

Key Stats

  • Borussia Dortmund and FC St. Pauli have previously met 22 times in all competitions. The Black and Yellows have the upper hand in these meetings with 15 wins (D4 L3).
  • Four of the six meetings between the two teams in the 21st century have produced over 2.5 goals, with the hosts keeping two clean sheets.
  • Borussia Dortmund have an unbeaten home record in this fixture, recording seven wins in three games. St. Pauli have not lost more matches to any Bundesliga opponent than to BVB (11, same as against Werder Bremen), and they have not conceded as many Bundesliga goals against any other team as they have against Borussia Dortmund (33).
  • FC St. Pauli have the worst goalscoring record in the Bundesliga this term, scoring four times in six games. However, they have the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table, and only five teams have conceded fewer goals.
  • Dortmund are currently on a 38-game unbeaten run in Friday-night Bundesliga matches at Signal Iduna Park. Two of those fixtures have come this season, with the Black and Yellows picking up 4-2 victories over both Heidenheim and VfL Bochum.

Player to Watch

Jamie Bynoe-Gittens

Embed from Getty Images

With Serhou Guirassy still easing into the thick of things at Borussia Dortmund, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens might be the biggest difference-maker for the home side. The young Englishman has finally established a foothold in the first-team squad at Borussia Dortmund and should enjoy his breakthrough season at the Bundesliga club.

The youngster’s exploits in the first few weeks of the 2024/25 season have piqued the attention of several high-profile clubs across Europe, especially in the Premier League. The list of suitors should grow if he continues making his mark at the club level, including this Friday against FC St. Pauli.

Prediction

Borussia Dortmund 1-0 FC St. Pauli

With FC St. Pauli showing defensive solidity that belies the levels of newly promoted clubs, we should witness a closely contested affair at Signal Iduna Park on Friday. However, the away side might not have the chops to trouble Borussia Dortmund, considering the struggles in the final third.

On the other hand, the hosts have blown hot and cold in the first few weeks of the 2024/25 season and will show their defensive frailties. However, the home side should have enough quality to eke a narrow win. The Hard Tackle predicts a 1-0 victory for Nuri Sahin and his charges.

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