Toronto FC wrap up their MLS regular season fixtures by facing an in-form Inter Miami on Saturday night.
Toronto FC head into their final regular-season match of the 2024 MLS campaign with plenty to play for as they host Inter Miami at BMO Field. The Reds are currently clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference but face a tough challenge against the newly crowned Supporters’ Shield champions, Inter Miami.
Toronto’s midweek 4-1 defeat to the New York Red Bulls has left them in a precarious position. While they sit in ninth place, holding the last playoff spot, their fate is no longer entirely in their hands. A win against Miami would solidify their position, forcing their competitors, Philadelphia Union and DC United, to claim at least four points from their remaining fixtures to overtake Toronto. However, should they fail to win, Toronto could still sneak into the playoffs if both teams behind them falter.
The Reds have struggled at home recently, losing their last two league matches at BMO Field and suffering nine home defeats throughout the season. Conceding three or more goals in six of their home games this season highlights the defensive vulnerabilities John Herdman’s side must address to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, they can take some confidence from their last home match against Inter Miami, a 2-0 win in March 2023, which was one of their few victories last year.
For Inter Miami, the stakes are different. The Herons officially clinched the Supporters’ Shield with their midweek 3-2 victory over the Columbus Crew, securing the best record in Major League Soccer this season. With two matches left, including this one, Gerardo Martino’s side can still set a new league record for most points in a season, surpassing the current mark of 73 held by the 2021 New England Revolution.
Inter Miami have suffered just four defeats in 32 league games this year, a franchise-best for fewest losses in a single season. Their prolific attack, which has netted 72 goals so far, has been a key factor in their success, and they could surpass that tally with another strong showing in Toronto.
While the Herons have dropped points in two of their last three away games, they’ve won eight of their previous nine meetings with Toronto, including a 1-0 victory at BMO Field in 2022. The Hard Tackle delves into the potential elevens and tactics for this highly-anticipated clash.
Team News & Tactics
Toronto FC
Toronto FC are dealing with several injury concerns heading into their crucial fixture against Inter Miami. Charlie Sharp remains unavailable due to a lower leg issue, while Lorenzo Insigne continues to recover from a calf strain. Henry Wingo is out with a hamstring injury, and Nicksoen Gomis also misses out due to a similar hamstring problem.
Federico Bernardeschi will be absent after being sent off in the midweek clash against New York Red Bulls. Prince Owusu, who scored a penalty in that game, will likely lead the line again for the Reds, aiming to add to his tally of eight goals this season.
In terms of formation, head coach John Herdman is expected to set up his side in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Sean Johnson will continue in goal, with a three-man defence consisting of Sigurd Rosted, Kevin Long, and Raoul Petretta.
Richie Laryea and Tyrese Spicer will likely operate as wing-backs, while Alonso Coello and Deybi Flores are expected to occupy the central midfield positions. Deandre Kerr and Derrick Etienne Jr. should provide support to Prince Owusu, who will lead the attack as the lone striker.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Johnson; Rosted, Long, Petretta; Laryea, Coello, Flores, Spicer; Kerr, Etienne; Owusu
Inter Miami
Inter Miami will be missing several key players ahead of their clash against Toronto FC. David Martinez remains out due to a right adductor strain, while CJ dos Santos is still recovering from a hand injury. Lawson Sunderland is sidelined with a hamstring problem, and Leo Afonso is out for the season with a groin issue.
Additionally, both Nicolas Freire and Facundo Farias are still on the road to recovery from ACL injuries. In their midweek fixture, Luis Suarez netted the winning goal, with Lionel Messi adding a brace. But with the Supporters’ Shield already secured, Messi is likely to be rested for this upcoming match.
In terms of formation, head coach Gerardo Martino is expected to opt for a 4-3-3 setup. Drake Callender will start between the posts, with Marcelo Weigandt, Ian Fray, Noah Allen, and Jordi Alba forming the defensive line. The midfield trio is likely to include Benjamin Cremaschi, Sergio Busquets, and David Ruiz. In attack, Julian Gressel and Leonardo Campana are expected to flank Diego Gomez, who will lead the line up front.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Callender; Weigandt, Fray, Allen, Alba; Bright, Busquets, Ruiz; Gressel, Campana, Gomez
Ways to Watch
Key Stats
- Inter Miami have won eight of the last nine meetings against Toronto FC, demonstrating their dominance in recent fixtures. Their last win at BMO Field came in 2022 with a 1-0 victory.
- Inter Miami have scored 72 goals in the MLS this season, the most since the Philadelphia Union’s 72 goals in 2022. They are on the brink of surpassing that total and could have the highest goal tally in the regular season since LAFC scored 85 goals in 2019.
- Toronto FC have lost two consecutive home league matches and have suffered nine home defeats in total during the regular season, making BMO Field less of a fortress for them this year.
- Inter Miami have only suffered four defeats in 32 domestic matches this season, the fewest in MLS, indicating their defensive resilience across the campaign.
Player to Watch
Prince Owusu
Prince Owusu has been a key figure for Toronto FC in recent weeks, with his second-half penalty against the New York Red Bulls marking his eighth goal of the season. The German striker has shown an ability to capitalise on chances in critical moments, and his goalscoring form will be crucial for Toronto as they fight to secure a playoff spot.
With Federico Bernardeschi suspended and several players out injured, Owusu’s influence in the final third becomes even more vital for the Reds. His positioning, physicality, and finishing ability make him a player to watch as Toronto look to pull off a crucial win against Inter Miami.
Prediction
Toronto FC 1-3 Inter Miami
While Toronto will be motivated to secure a playoff spot, Inter Miami’s firepower and form are likely too strong for the home side to handle. Expect the Herons to continue their winning streak and dash Toronto’s playoff hopes in their final regular-season fixture.
