Manchester United will be desperate to return to winning ways when they take on Southampton at St. Mary’s on Saturday.
The dreaded international break is over, and the Premier League returns with Gameweek 4 of the 2024/25 season. The latest round of fixtures kicks off at St. Mary’s, where Southampton will host Manchester United, with both teams desperate to bounce back after picking up multiple defeats in August.
Southampton might have been impressive in all three Premier League outings thus far. But they are yet to earn their first point in the 2024/25 season. The Saints would have felt they deserved better in their 1-0 losses to Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest before Brentford outplayed them in Gameweek 3. Meanwhile, Russell Martin’s men were part of a pulsating EFL Cup second-round clash against Cardiff City, winning 5-3 to reach the next stage.
As for Manchester United, they began the 2024/25 season with a defeat to Manchester City in the Community Shield tie, although they should have won that game. The Red Devils kicked off their Premier League campaign with a 1-0 win over Fulham before enduring successive defeats to Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool heading into the international break.
Manchester United clinched a 1-0 win over Southampton in the most recent Premier League fixture between the teams at St. Mary’s. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.
Player to Watch
Southampton
Russell Martin does not have any new injury concerns hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixture. Against Manchester United on Saturday, the Southampton manager will be bereft of the services of three first-team players.
Gavin Bazunu is a long-term absentee due to his achilles injury. However, Kamaldeen Sulemana and Ross Stewart are closing in on returning to action, with the former will likely be available to take on Ipswich Town next weekend.
Aaron Ramsdale is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Southampton lining up in a 3-5-2 formation in front of him. The central defensive unit should feature Jan Bednarek, Jack Stephens, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis, with Yukinari Sugawara and Kyle Walker-Peters being the two wing-backs.
The duo will aim to protect the centre-backs while providing the width in the final third. As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Flynn Downes, Lesley Ugochukwu, and Mateus Fernandes, with the latter bringing the creative impetus. Finally, Ben Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer should be the two strikers for the home side.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Ramsdale; Bednarek, Stephens, Harwood-Bellis; Sugawara, Downes, Ugochukwu, Fernandes, Walker-Peters; Brereton Díaz, Archer
Manchester United
Like his counterpart in the Southampton dugout, Erik ten Hag does not have any new issues to deal with ahead of the trip to St. Mary’s. The Manchester United manager will be without six first-team players on Saturday.
Leny Yoro (foot), Luke Shaw (calf), Victor Lindelof (toe), Tyrell Malacia (knee), Mason Mount (hamstring), and Rasmus Hojlund (thigh) remain on the sidelines. However, Shaw, Lindelof, and Hojlund should be available soon.
Andre Onana will take his usual spot between the sticks, with Manchester United lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him against Southampton on Saturday. The backline should feature Noussair Mazraoui, Matthijs de Ligt, Lisandro Martinez, and Diogo Dalot.
As for the midfield unit, deadline-day signing Manuel Ugarte should replace Casemiro as Kobbie Mainoo’s partner in the double pivot after the Brazilian’s error-strewn display against Liverpool. Bruno Fernandes will reprise the no. 10 role, with Amad Diallo and Marcus Rashford being the two wide attackers. Finally, Joshua Zirkzee will lead the line for the away side vs Southampton.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Onana, Mazraoui, de Ligt, Martínez, Dalot; Ugarte, Mainoo, Diallo, Fernandes, Rashford; Zirkzee
Key Stats
- Southampton are winless in their 14 Premier League meetings with Manchester United (D8 L6) since a 1-0 away win in January 2016. The Red Devils are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against Southampton (W7 D5) since a 1-0 loss in August 2003.
- Manchester United have only lost one of their 30 most recent Premier League games against promoted clubs (W22 D7), winning 15 of their last 17 since a 4-1 loss at Watford in November 2021.
- Manchester United have come from behind to beat Southampton in 10 Premier League games. Only Liverpool have more comeback wins over an opponent in the competition’s history (11 vs Newcastle United).
- Southampton have lost all three Premier League games thus far this season. They can be the first side to lose their first four in three campaigns in the competition, previously doing so in 1998/99 and 2012/13 (the last time they were a promoted team).
- Manchester United have scored around three goals fewer than their xG thus far this season (2 goals, 5.2 xG), the biggest difference for any team in the Premier League this term. Meanwhile, Southampton have the second-largest difference thus far (1 goal, 3.5 xG) and the lowest shot conversion rate amongst all teams (2.4%).
Player to Watch
Manuel Ugarte
Bruno Fernandes was a contender due to his impressive recent record against Southampton. However, we have picked another Manchester United player for this section, with Manuel Ugarte under the spotlight ahead of his debut this weekend.
The Uruguayan international completed a deadline-day move to Manchester United but could not compete against Liverpool. However, after his impressive showings during the international break, he will be raring to go when he takes the field. While Erik ten Hag might ease him into the thick of things, Ugarte will have his opportunity to make a splash this weekend.
Prediction
Southampton 1-2 Manchester United
Both teams have left a lot to be desired in the defensive phases this term, even though they have shown some promising signs during forward forays. Southampton (4) and Manchester United (3) have made the most errors leading to a goal in the Premier League this season.
All three goals Manchester United conceded in their loss to Liverpool came via errors, the first time on record they have committed as many in a single Premier League match (since the 2007/08 season). Meanwhile, Aaron Ramsdale has an unenviable record against Manchester United since keeping a clean sheet in his first outings vs the Red Devils.
The Englishman has conceded in his last eight outings against Manchester United. His 19 goals conceded in these games is the joint-most he has shipped against any team in the competition (also 19 vs Liverpool). So, all signs point towards an engrossing affair between the two teams, facilitated by a few defensive errors. However, Manchester United should have more quality and eke out a narrow 2-1 win, with Bruno Fernandes continuing his fine run against Southampton.
