Spain will look to complete their Nations League double over Croatia when they travel to Split on Tuesday evening, while the hosts are desperate to put a difficult loss behind them.
Croatia need a response after one of the most painful nights in their recent history. The defeat to England was their heaviest ever in men’s international football, and the manner of it will have done serious damage to confidence in the camp.
Slaven Bilic will hope the return of key players can help restore some structure, although the defensive problems run deeper than one bad result. Croatia have now conceded heavily in consecutive matches and will need a far more disciplined performance to avoid another difficult evening, as the main aim against Spain will be to put that difficult loss to England firmly behind them.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spain side have continued to impress with the balance they have found between control and attacking threat, as was evident in their recent displays in the Nations League. Their win over Czechia showed that even with several changes, the team can still dominate possession, create chances and manage games with ease.
The world champions have been relentless throughout the campaign and remain unbeaten in their last 41 matches in all competitions. Their recent 4-1 win over Croatia showed the gap in quality between the two sides, and de la Fuente’s team will now aim to finish the international break with another controlled and professional display.
Spain will also take confidence from the fact that they have won their last four meetings with Croatia. With a perfect record in the group and a long unbeaten run behind them, they are well placed to extend both if they start with the same intensity they showed in the reverse fixture.
Team News & Tactics
Croatia
Croatia are likely to stay closer to a 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1, depending on whether Luka Modric is used as a deeper organiser or pushed slightly higher up the pitch. Josip Sutalo, Luka Vuskovic, Josko Gvardiol and Ivan Perisic are all expected to feature at the back despite the poor display against England.
Mateo Kovacic, Josip Misic, Marco Pasalic and Martin Baturina are expected to feature in midfield and in the more advanced roles, alongside Modric. There is still quality in the side, but Croatia need better control and more discipline if they are to keep Spain from dictating the game.
There is some uncertainty in Croatia’s squad because of a few injury issues. Martin Erlic and Josip Juranovic have already withdrawn, while Bilic could also shuffle players after the heavy loss to England.
Up front, Croatia may go with Igor Matanovic, with Marco Pasalic and Nikola Vlasic in the wide areas. Petar Sucic is likely to feature in the attacking midfield role, while the likes of Ante Budimir and Andrej Kramaric could come off the bench at some stage.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1) – Livakovic; Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic; Kovacic, Modric; Pasalic, P. Sucic, Vlasic; Matanovic
Spain
Spain are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 or a very similar shape, with de la Fuente likely to keep a controlled midfield and plenty of width through Lamine Yamal and possibly Alex Baena on the other flank. Marc Pubill, Pau Cubarsi, Dean Huijsen and Marc Cucurella should form the back line, while Martin Zubimendi, Pedri and Fermin Lopez could operate in midfield, as Rodri could be given a rare rest or a place on the bench.
Spain have been managing fitness carefully, with Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Alex Grimaldo all withdrawing from the squad, although de la Fuente still has enough depth to rotate. The visitors remain well stocked in every area, which gives them the freedom to keep their usual attacking rhythm without overloading key players.
Yamal and Alex Baena were taken off at half-time against Czechia for tactical reasons rather than injury, while Cubarsi’s absence there was described as a recovery decision, so both should be available again here. The attacking line is likely to feature Yamal on one side, Mikel Oyarzabal through the middle and either Baena or Munoz on the left.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3) – Simon; Pubill, Huijsen, Cubarsi, Cucurella; Lopez, Zubimendi, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena
Key Stats
- Croatia have conceded 12 goals in the group so far, the second-worst defensive record behind San Marino.
- Croatia have lost their last two Nations League matches and have yet to recover from the 7-0 defeat to England.
- Spain have scored 10 goals in the group and are top with a perfect record from three matches.
- Spain are unbeaten in 16 consecutive Nations League games, excluding penalty shootout defeats.
Player to Watch
Luka Modric
This is a true test of character for the veteran midfielder, as he will lead the national side against a relentless Spain team who are also the world champions. The game is particularly important, not only in terms of the result, but also because all eyes will be on how Croatia respond after the humiliating defeat at the hands of England.
The 7-0 loss on home soil is the worst defeat the Croatian national team has suffered in modern history, and they face an immediate threat against Spain. Experienced heads like Modric will be crucial if Croatia are to find some rhythm and control, and to avoid another embarrassing result.
Prediction
Croatia 1-3 Spain
Spain have not shown any drop-off in their form for a long time, and they are not likely to be sloppy now against Croatia. De la Fuente will expect another strong result from his team when they travel to Split. Croatia have a task that feels more like damage limitation than a realistic bid for victory.
A better performance than the one against England would count as progress, and they may even find a goal or two against Spain’s open style. However, the visitors are expected to take all three points and score more than the hosts to round off a solid international break.
