Portugal and Croatia face off in a crucial knockout clash which could prove joyous for one and a last dance for another of the game’s long servants.
The World Cup is at its crucial stage with the ongoing round-of-32 clashes, as the likes of Japan, Germany and the Netherlands have already exited the tournament. While there could be more headlines made between now and the game between Portugal and Croatia, the clash itself is built around the narratives surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric.
These are two of the longest-serving players in the game, and beginning with Ronaldo, it is very much a do-or-die moment for the Portuguese superstar. At 41, he may be playing his last World Cup, and at the moment, the current edition has been a bit on and off for the Selecao talisman. Having announced to the world that he was back following the win over Uzbekistan, he once again looked out of sorts when facing Colombia.
From a Portugal perspective, the Colombia game was a litmus test of sorts in their quest to finish as group winners, which was not the case. The South Americans clinched the top spot with a draw against the Selecao, setting up Portugal’s date with Croatia, with the game billed as a last dance for one of Ronaldo or Luka Modric.
Speaking of Modric, alongside Ronaldo, the Croatian is widely considered a legend of the game, a title only a few can meaningfully claim in this day and age. Given that this Croatian side is not seen as one of the favourites, or even marginal contenders, at this tournament, the narrative revolves around their veteran superstar and whether this could be the last dance for him.
However, the task for Zlatko Dalic will be to move away from those stories and focus on the game ahead. There have been instances in recent World Cup editions where Croatia have got the better of ‘big’ teams, and he will hope Portugal are on that list next.
Heading into the round-of-32 clash with the Selecao, Croatia had to deal with a tricky group-stage campaign involving England and Ghana. After a disappointing 4-2 loss against the former, they did make amends by winning their next two games against Panama and then Ghana, which ensured they finished second. Now, if they end up beating Portugal, they will face either Austria or Spain.
Team News & Tactics
Portugal
Roberto Martinez has somewhat used the group stages to further experiment with his lineups and may have stumbled upon the right formula heading into the knockout rounds. From the draw against Colombia, the Spanish manager might make only one change, bringing Joao Neves back into the midfield setup in place of Ruben Neves.
Beyond that, the manager had to find a way to accommodate some of his experienced stars, as the likes of Bernardo Silva might have to contend with a place on the bench moving forward. That said, the midfield setup is likely to be Joao Neves, Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes in the more advanced role.
Ruben Dias did not start until the second game, but he appears to have formed a productive partnership with Renato Veiga, which may continue moving forward. The idea of keeping Bernardo Silva on the bench might have stemmed from the effective wing options of Pedro Neto and Joao Felix, and Martinez could stick with that, at least for the Croatia game.
There might not be any changes to the full-back setup, as Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes are expected to start on either flank. The focus will be on Ronaldo once again, as many mitigating factors still squarely point towards Martinez starting the game with the veteran superstar leading the line.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J. Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo
Croatia
Dalic will take note of the changes he has made to his lineups over the course of the group stages, and it appears his selections will heavily emphasise the success of those games. For instance, he has no reason not to reward those who put in top performances in the wins over Panama and Ghana.
That would see Ante Budimir lead the line after his goal against the former, and the decision can still be justified despite him not having scored against the latter. Nikola Vlasic was also on the scoresheet against Ghana, and his winner against the Africans should allow him a place on the right side of the attack against Portugal.
The idea of shifting Martin Baturina to the left also seems to have paid dividends, meaning Dalic is likely to stick with that style. By extension, Petar Sucic also made a case for himself in the attacking midfield role, having netted against the Ghanaians.
The aforementioned personnel are likely to be named in the attacking setup, while Dalic will keep Mateo Kovacic and veteran Modric in his midfield. Another smart move from the manager saw Ivan Perisic take up a left-back role, something the veteran could retain heading into the game against Portugal.
There are some important decisions to be made regarding the backline, as Dalic has clearly shifted away from the back three he played against England in the opening game. He has not played Luka Vuskovic since, and Josko Gvardiol was also on the bench against Ghana. There is a strong feeling that Dalic will continue with the same back four from the Ghana game.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Stanisic, Pongracic, Sutalo, Perisic; Modric, Kovacic; Vlasic, Sucic, Baturina; Budimir
Key Stats
- Portugal are unbeaten in nine of their last 10 matches.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in six of his last 10 appearances.
- Croatia have won five of their last six matches.
- Croatia are unbeaten in nine of their last 10 matches.
Player to Watch
Cristiano Ronaldo
There is a strong case to be made for Modric, but the narrative around this World Cup edition centres on Ronaldo and whether he can cement his legend by winning the biggest prize in the game. However, the upcoming game against Croatia is another litmus test for the Al-Nassr star, as his priority must now shift from personal accolades to whatever benefits the team.
Winning the World Cup with Portugal would outweigh personal accolades like the Golden Boot or Ballon d’Or, as Ronaldo must prioritise progression into the round of 16. Yet, the focus will be on him and his ability to score goals in crucial games. One crucial fact is that, despite this being his sixth World Cup campaign, Ronaldo has not scored a knockout goal in any of the previous editions.
Prediction
Portugal 2-1 Croatia
Croatia will come into this game on the back of two wins, with momentum on their side, but Dalic will know the test is bigger than what they experienced in the group stages. However, Croatia have been unpredictable in the recent past against ‘big’ teams at the World Cup knockout stages, and their fans will hope to see some of that again this time around.
Portugal may not have had the best of starts so far, but they are a well-built squad. Slowly but steadily, Martinez appears to have brought cohesion to this unit, and barring a few issues, they are set for a solid win over Croatia.