Atalanta will hope to secure another Bundesliga scalp when they welcome Bayern Munich on Tuesday.
A compelling Champions League round of 16 tie begins in Bergamo on Tuesday evening as Atalanta BC host FC Bayern Munich in the first leg of their battle for a place in the quarter-finals.
Atalanta arrive in this stage after producing one of the competition’s most dramatic turnarounds in the playoff round. Trailing by two goals from the first leg against Borussia Dortmund, La Dea roared back in the return fixture in Bergamo, overturning the deficit by the hour mark before the German side drew level in a pulsating contest.
Deep into stoppage time, however, Atalanta were awarded a penalty and Lazar Samardzic calmly converted to send the Italian side into the round of 16. The Bergamaschi have built a reputation for memorable European nights in recent years, highlighted by their 2024 Europa League triumph.
Yet their knockout-stage record in the Champions League has been less convincing. Aside from a notable 4-1 home victory last month, Atalanta have lost six of their last seven elimination-phase fixtures and have conceded an average of two goals per match across nine knockout games.
Domestically, momentum has also stalled slightly. After Raffaele Palladino earned Serie A’s Coach of the Month award in February, Atalanta have struggled to maintain their form. A shock defeat to ten-man Sassuolo damaged their hopes of securing a top-four finish, while a recent 2-2 draw with Udinese highlighted both their attacking resilience and defensive fragility.
In that match, Gianluca Scamacca scored twice in quick succession to rescue a point after Atalanta had fallen behind. Despite these inconsistencies, Atalanta can draw encouragement from their strong historical record against German opposition, having lost only three of their previous 14 meetings with Bundesliga sides, including their famous Europa League final victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
Standing in their way now, however, is arguably the most formidable opponent they have faced in Europe’s elite competition. Bayern Munich arrive in Lombardy with exceptional momentum. Vincent Kompany’s side have recorded 35 wins and only two defeats in 40 matches across all competitions this season, with their only Champions League setback coming against Arsenal earlier in the campaign.
The Bavarian giants have once again demonstrated their attacking firepower, scoring freely throughout the season. Their tally of 92 Bundesliga goals leaves them within striking distance of the league’s all-time single-season scoring record, and Bayern Munich have won their last six matches in all competitions.
Bayern also traditionally thrive in this stage of the tournament. They have won ten of their last 12 Champions League round-of-16 matches, boasting the highest goals-per-game ratio in the knockout phase of the competition’s history.
Their most recent outing saw Kompany rotate heavily following victory in Der Klassiker, yet Bayern Munich still cruised to a 4-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach despite the absence of Harry Kane. Goals from Luis Diaz, Jamal Musiala, Konrad Laimer and Nicolas Jackson ensured the perfect preparation for this European showdown.
With Bayern Munich chasing another potential treble and Atalanta aiming to extend their proud European story, the first leg in Bergamo promises to be a fascinating clash of styles and ambitions. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Team News & Tactics
Atalanta BC
Atalanta head into this UEFA Champions League first leg with several important availability concerns. Defender Giorgio Scalvini is suspended for the match after receiving a UEFA disciplinary ban, forcing coach Raffaele Palladino to reshuffle his defensive options. In attack, Charles De Ketelaere remains sidelined due to a knee injury, depriving the side of one of their most creative players.
The Belgian has been hugely influential in Europe this season, registering six goal involvements and creating 20 chances during the league phase, and Atalanta have averaged nearly one additional goal per game from open play when he has started in the Champions League. Meanwhile, Giacomo Raspadori has only recently returned to training and is unlikely to be risked from the start. There is some positive news for the hosts, however.
Midfielder Ederson is expected to return after recent fitness concerns, and club captain Marten de Roon should also be restored to the starting lineup after being rested during the weekend draw with Udinese.
In attack, Gianluca Scamacca strengthened his case to lead the line with a brace in that match and has an impressive Champions League record at home, having scored in each of his last three European appearances in Bergamo. Nevertheless, Nikola Krstovic remains an alternative option should Palladino decide to rotate his attacking setup.
Tactically, Atalanta are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation. Marco Carnesecchi should start in goal. The defensive trio is likely to consist of Odilon Kossounou on the right side of defence, Isak Hien centrally, and Sead Kolasinac on the left. Across midfield, Davide Zappacosta is expected to operate as the right wing-back while Lorenzo Bernasconi provides width on the left.
In central midfield, Marten de Roon should partner Mario Pasalic, combining defensive solidity with forward support. Further forward, Lazar Samardzic and Nicola Zalewski are expected to play as the two attacking midfielders behind the striker, tasked with linking midfield to attack and creating chances in transition. Leading the line, Gianluca Scamacca is likely to start as the lone striker, relying on his physical presence and aerial ability to trouble Bayern Munich’s defence.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, De Roon, Pasalic, Bernasconi; Samardzic, Zalewski; Scamacca
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich travel to Bergamo with only a few injury concerns affecting their squad. The biggest talking point surrounds striker Harry Kane, who was rested in the recent Bundesliga match due to a minor calf issue. However, head coach Vincent Kompany has indicated that the England captain should be fit enough to return for the Champions League clash.
Kane’s presence is crucial for Bayern Munich, as he has been directly involved in 33 goals in as many Champions League appearances for the club, more than any other player in Europe since the start of the 2023/24 season.
There is greater uncertainty surrounding captain Manuel Neuer, who missed two matches before briefly returning against Borussia Monchengladbach, only to be substituted midway through the game. As a result, Jonas Urbig could retain his place between the posts for this fixture.
Elsewhere, defenders Hiroki Ito and Alphonso Davies remain unavailable due to injury and will not feature in the first leg. There are no suspension issues reported for the Bavarian side heading into this encounter.
Tactically, Bayern Munich are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Jonas Urbig is likely to start in goal. The defensive line should consist of Josip Stanisic at right-back, with Dayot Upamecano partnering Jonathan Tah at the heart of the defence, while Konrad Laimer is expected to operate at left-back in the absence of Alphonso Davies.
In midfield, Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic are set to form the double pivot, combining Kimmich’s playmaking and leadership with Pavlovic’s composure in possession. Ahead of them, Bayern’s attacking trio should feature Michael Olise on the right wing, Jamal Musiala in the central attacking midfield role, and Luis Diaz operating from the left flank.
Leading the line, Harry Kane is expected to return as the central striker if declared fit. His finishing ability, link-up play, and experience in European competition make him the focal point of Bayern Munich’s attack as they look to gain an advantage in the first leg of this Champions League round-of-16 tie.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Diaz; Kane
Key Stats
- Bayern Munich have won ten of their last 12 Champions League round-of-16 matches.
- Atalanta have lost six of their last seven Champions League knockout matches, conceding an average of two goals per game during that period.
- Bayern Munich have scored 92 Bundesliga goals this season, putting them within reach of the league’s all-time single-season scoring record.
- Atalanta have lost only three of their previous 14 matches against German clubs in European competitions.
- Harry Kane has been directly involved in 33 goals in 33 Champions League appearances for Bayern, the most by any player in Europe since the start of the 2023/24 campaign.
Player to Watch
Harry Kane
Harry Kane remains the central figure in Bayern Munich’s attack and could once again prove decisive as the Bavarian giants begin their Champions League knockout campaign in Bergamo. The England captain has enjoyed a phenomenal run in Europe, being directly involved in 33 goals in 33 Champions League appearances for Bayern, the highest contribution by any player in the competition since the start of the 2023/24 season.
Kane’s impact goes far beyond simple goal-scoring. His intelligent movement, ability to drop deep and link play, and clinical finishing make him one of the most complete forwards in world football. Whether arriving in the box to convert crosses or orchestrating attacks from deeper areas, the Englishman consistently finds ways to influence matches at the highest level.
Against an Atalanta defence that has struggled in recent Champions League knockout ties, Kane’s experience and composure could be crucial. If Bayern Munich are to secure a valuable first-leg advantage away from home, their star striker will likely play a pivotal role in breaking down the Italian side’s defence.
Prediction
Atalanta BC 1-2 Bayern Munich
Atalanta have shown in recent seasons that they can produce memorable European nights in Bergamo, and their attacking style often makes them dangerous opponents at home. However, defensive inconsistencies and their recent struggles in Champions League knockout ties could be exposed against one of Europe’s most prolific attacking sides.
Bayern Munich arrive with exceptional form, vast experience at this stage of the competition, and a squad packed with attacking quality. With players like Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, and Luis Diaz capable of creating and finishing chances, the German champions have the firepower to take control of the tie.
Atalanta may threaten going forward, but Bayern Munich’s overall quality and efficiency in big European matches should give them the edge. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Vincent Kompany and his charges.
