There is much to play at both ends of the table when RB Leipzig welcome FSV Mainz 05 on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Bull Arena sets the stage for a Bundesliga meeting that carries weight at both ends of the table on Saturday afternoon, as RB Leipzig welcome a resurgent FSV Mainz 05 side with sharply contrasting objectives.
For Leipzig, this fixture arrives at a moment when momentum is beginning to wobble. Ole Werner’s men remain entrenched in the UEFA Champions League places, but recent results have exposed a fragility that rivals are eager to exploit. A frustrating 1-1 draw away to relegation-threatened St Pauli in midweek followed a bruising 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich earlier in the month, meaning Die Roten Bullen have taken just one win from their last three league outings.
Despite those setbacks, Leipzig still occupy fourth place, level on 36 points with Stuttgart in fifth. With VfB surging in form and pressure intensifying in the top-four race, this weekend feels close to must-win territory. Leipzig’s home record should provide reassurance, seven wins from nine Bundesliga matches at the Red Bull Arena this season underlines their dominance on familiar turf.
Yet there is an undeniable edge of unease around the stadium. Both of Leipzig’s home defeats this campaign have come in their last three league games in front of their own supporters, disrupting what had previously looked like an impenetrable fortress. Werner’s task now is to reassert control, particularly against opponents who arrive with confidence rather than fear.
Mainz may sit deep in the relegation picture, but their trajectory since Urs Fischer’s appointment tells a far more optimistic story. When Fischer arrived in early December, Die Nullfunfer were spiralling after four defeats in five matches. Since then, the transformation has been striking. Mainz have lost just once in eight matches across all competitions, stabilising their season and restoring belief.
Their most recent outing, a commanding 3-1 win over Wolfsburg, encapsulated that revival. Mainz played with intensity, structure, and conviction, traits that had been conspicuously absent earlier in the campaign. That result lifted them to 16th in the table, just three points adrift of Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV, pulling survival firmly back into view.
Away from home, Mainz have proven awkward opponents. They have suffered only one defeat on the road since November, suggesting resilience and tactical discipline under Fischer. However, there is an important caveat: despite avoiding defeat, Mainz have not recorded a Bundesliga away win in over four months. Turning stubborn draws into victories remains their biggest challenge.
This clash therefore pits Leipzig’s home power against Mainz’s growing stubbornness. Leipzig are likely to dominate possession and territory, but Mainz have shown they are capable of absorbing pressure and striking when opportunities arise. With the hosts under pressure to respond and Mainz sensing vulnerability, the ingredients are in place for a tense and competitive contest. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Team News & Tactics
RB Leipzig
Leipzig head into Saturday’s fixture slightly stretched in midfield due to a combination of injury and suspension. Highly rated teenager Forzan Assan Ouedraogo remains unavailable as he continues to recover from a knee injury, while Christoph Baumgartner will miss out through suspension after accumulating yellow cards, with his latest booking coming against St. Pauli. Their absences reduce Leipzig’s creative options between the lines.
Ole Werner is also without young midfielder Viggo Gebel, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after suffering an anterior cruciate ligament injury. At the back, Leipzig will have to cope without Castello Lukeba, as the centre-back is not yet ready to return following a knee problem, although the issue is not considered long-term. There are no additional suspension concerns beyond Baumgartner.
From a tactical standpoint, Leipzig are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, maintaining the structure that has defined much of their campaign. Peter Gulacsi is set to continue in goal, offering experience and composure behind the defence. The back four should feature Ridle Baku at right-back, Willi Orban as the defensive leader in central defence alongside El Chadaille Bitshiabu, with David Raum providing width and attacking thrust from left-back.
In midfield, Nicolas Seiwald is likely to operate as the deepest midfielder, tasked with dictating tempo and shielding the back line. He should be supported by Xaver Schlager, who brings intensity and ball-winning ability, and Ezechiel Banzuzi, expected to provide energy and forward carries from central areas.
The attacking trio is set to include Yan Diomande on the right flank, Romulo leading the line as the central striker, and Antonio Nusa operating from the left, giving Leipzig pace, directness, and 1v1 threat in advanced areas.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Gulacsi; Baku, Orban, Bitshiabu, Raum; Banzuzi, Seiwald, Schlager; Diomande, Romulo, Nusa
1.FSV Mainz 05
Mainz travel to Leipzig with significant defensive concerns, as injuries and suspensions continue to thin Urs Fischer’s options at the back. Centre-backs Andreas Hanche-Olsen and Maxim Dal remain unavailable, forcing further reshuffling in central defence. Matters are compounded by the suspension of Dominik Kohr, who will sit out this fixture after collecting his fifth yellow card of the season in the recent win over Wolfsburg.
The problems extend into wide and goalkeeping areas. Left wing-back Nikolas Veratschnig is a major doubt due to a fitness issue, while right wing-back Anthony Caci has been ruled out. First-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner is also unavailable, meaning Mainz will once again have to rely on their deputy between the posts. In midfield and attack, Sota Kawasaki is sidelined with a muscle injury, while Arnaud Nordin remains a doubt, leaving Fischer short of creative options behind the forwards.
Tactically, Mainz are expected to persist with a 3-5-2 formation, prioritising structure and compactness in the face of Leipzig’s attacking threat. Daniel Batz is set to start in goal, protected by a back three consisting of Stefan Posch on the right, Stefan Bell as the central organiser, and Kacper Potulski on the left. The wing-back roles are likely to be filled by Silvan Widmer on the right and Philipp Mwene on the left, both tasked with balancing defensive discipline and forward support.
In central midfield, Kaishu Sano is expected to anchor the side, with Lee Jae-sung providing energy and tactical intelligence alongside Nadiem Amiri, who may be asked to operate slightly deeper due to personnel shortages. Up front, Phillip Tietz and Benedict Hollerbach are likely to lead the line as a strike partnership, offering physical presence and direct running as Mainz look to threaten Leipzig on the break.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Batz; Posch, Bell, Potulski; Widmer, Amiri, Sano, Lee, Mwene; Tietz, Hollerbach
Key Stats
- RB Leipzig have won seven of their nine Bundesliga home matches this season.
- Both of Leipzig’s home league defeats have come in their last three matches.
- Mainz 05 have lost just one of their last eight matches across all competitions since Urs Fischer took charge.
- Mainz have suffered only one away defeat since November, but they have not recorded a Bundesliga away win in over four months.
- RB Leipzig are level on points with fifth-placed Stuttgart, meaning any slip-up could immediately jeopardise their place in the top four.
Player to Watch
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande could be one of RB Leipzig’s most decisive weapons in Saturday’s encounter, particularly against a Mainz side arriving with a heavily patched-up defence. Deployed on the right side of Leipzig’s front three, Diomande offers directness and unpredictability, qualities that can unsettle opponents who are forced to reshuffle their backline.
The winger’s strength lies in his willingness to take defenders on early and often. Diomande attacks space aggressively, drives at pace, and is comfortable operating in tight 1v1 situations, making him a constant threat when Leipzig transition quickly. With Mainz likely to sit deep and protect their central areas, his ability to stretch the pitch and create overloads out wide could be crucial.
Diomande’s off-the-ball movement also adds value. He times runs well into the box and supports the central striker effectively, ensuring Leipzig maintain numbers in advanced areas. If Mainz struggle to contain him in wide zones, Diomande has the potential to tilt the game in Leipzig’s favour and play a defining role in breaking down stubborn resistance.
Prediction
RB Leipzig 2–0 Mainz 05
RB Leipzig approach this fixture knowing that any further slip could leave their place in the top four under real threat, and that urgency should translate into a focused, front-foot performance at the Red Bull Arena. Despite some absentees in midfield, Leipzig still possess enough structure and attacking quality to control the rhythm of the game, particularly against a Mainz side dealing with defensive shortages.
Mainz’s revival under Urs Fischer deserves respect, and their recent resilience suggests they will not be easily overrun. However, the lack of continuity at the back and limited options in wide areas could leave them vulnerable to sustained pressure, especially against Leipzig’s pace and width. If Leipzig move the ball quickly and exploit the flanks, they should create enough clear openings to edge a competitive contest.
