Bayern Munich will be heavy favourites when they take on minnows FC St.Pauli on Saturday afternoon.
Bayern Munich return to Bundesliga duty on Saturday afternoon desperate to reassert their dominance after suffering their first defeat of the season. The reigning champions were beaten midweek in the UEFA Champions League by Arsenal, a result that punctured an otherwise commanding campaign.
Their opponents, FC St. Pauli, arrive at the Allianz Arena in a far more precarious position, winless since September and entrenched in a brutal run of form that has dragged them deep into relegation trouble.
It has taken until mid-November, after 19 competitive matches across all fronts, for Bayern’s unbeaten run to finally collapse. Their defeat at the Emirates was decisive, and while losing to a Premier League giant is far from disastrous, the performance reflected a subtle dip that has been building quietly in recent weeks.
Before the international break, Bayern Munich dropped points in a 2-2 draw away at Union Berlin, a match in which Harry Kane’s stoppage-time equaliser masked a laboured display. Against SC Freiburg last weekend, the signs of unease were even clearer. Bayern conceded twice inside 17 minutes at home before roaring back to win 6-2, a scoreline that flattered them far more than it reflected control.
These cracks, however, do little to alter the larger picture. Vincent Kompany’s side remain firmly atop the Bundesliga, and Saturday will mark their 44th consecutive matchday as league leaders, surpassing a club record that has stood for over half a century. With the first loss of the season now behind them, Bayern will be determined to restore order and regain the ruthlessness that has defined much of their campaign. Facing a struggling St. Pauli side may offer the perfect opportunity.
While Bayern’s concerns are minor and fleeting, St. Pauli’s issues are structural and alarming. Alexander Blessin’s team enter this match having lost eight straight Bundesliga games, the longest losing run in the club’s history. Their attacking output has dried up completely, with the Kiezkickers failing to score in five of their last six league matches, and their defensive problems remain equally debilitating.
The board continues to back Blessin publicly, but the reality is clear: St. Pauli are embroiled in a deep relegation scrap. Last weekend’s 1-0 home defeat to Union Berlin reinforced their fragilities at both ends of the pitch, and the mood around the club has grown increasingly anxious as the weeks pass without improvement.
St. Pauli have not tasted Bundesliga victory since mid-September, and the prospect of ending that drought at the Allianz Arena, a venue where they have not won since 2002, appears remote. Their most recent trip to Munich, a spirited 3-2 defeat last March, showed heart and resilience, but the gap between the two sides has only widened since then. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Team News & Tactics
Bayern Munich
Die Roten approach the weekend with several encouraging developments on the fitness front. Serge Gnabry, who missed the Freiburg match with a minor knock, returned in midweek against Arsenal and immediately made an impact by providing an assist. His reintegration adds another layer of dynamism to Bayern’s wide options.
Hiroki Ito also marked his comeback from a foot injury by featuring late against Freiburg, registering an assist of his own in a brief but impressive cameo. The Bavarian giants are additionally boosted by the fact that both Alphonso Davies and Jamal Musiala are close to returning to full availability.
Neither is expected to be rushed back unnecessarily, but their progress is a major positive for Vincent Kompany. Bayern Munich have no suspensions going into this match against St. Pauli, and their injury list is shrinking at just the right time as the fixture calendar intensifies.
Bayern Munich are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 structure, a system that provides both attacking fluidity and defensive stability. Manuel Neuer will start in goal, anchoring the back line with his experience and sweeping ability.
At right-back, Sacha Boey is likely to feature, offering pace and aggressive pressing down the flank. The central defensive pairing should consist of Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae, whose combination of strength, aerial dominance and ball-carrying ability gives Bayern security through the middle. On the left, young prospect Tom Bischof is expected to continue deputising, providing energy and overlapping support.
In midfield, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka will form the double pivot. Kimmich will dictate the tempo from deep with his range of passing, while Goretzka provides forward thrust, physical presence and late runs into the box.
Ahead of them, the attacking trio is designed to stretch defences through movement, width and creativity. Lennart Karl is expected to operate centrally as the No.10, linking transitions and pressing aggressively. Michael Olise will likely start on the right wing, bringing technical precision and one-on-one threat, while Luis Diaz offers agility, close control and incisive dribbling on the left.
Up front, Harry Kane will lead the line as the lone striker. His influence, both as a deadly finisher and as a facilitator dropping between the lines, remains central to Bayern’s attacking identity. His ability to manipulate space and combine with the three playmakers behind him makes him one of the most dangerous forwards in Europe.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Boey, Upamecano, Kim, Bischof; Kimmich, Goretzka; Karl, Olise, Diaz; Kane
FC St.Pauli
The Kiezkicker travel to the Allianz Arena with more problems than solutions, and their team news reflects the difficulties they have faced throughout their disastrous run of form. David Nemeth remains unavailable as he continues to recover from a groin injury that has kept him sidelined for several weeks. In midfield, Adam Dzwigala has been out for over a month with a muscle injury and is not expected to return in time for the Bayern clash.
The visitors are also sweating over the fitness of Arkadiusz Pyrka and Manolis Saliakas, both of whom are carrying knocks. Early indications suggest that neither player is likely to make the squad, forcing further adjustments to an already thin lineup. St. Pauli have no suspensions, but the accumulation of injuries has left Alexander Blessin with limited tactical flexibility.
Despite their injury issues, St. Pauli are expected to persist with their 3-5-2 structure, a system that aims to provide numerical security in midfield while still offering counterattacking outlets. Nikola Vasilj will start in goal, tasked with organising a defence that has struggled significantly in recent weeks.
Ahead of him, the back three should consist of Hauke Wahl on the right of the trio, delivering experience and leadership, with Karol Mets occupying the central role to provide aerial presence and composure. On the left, Eric Smith is expected to complete the defensive line, using his physicality and reading of the game to support both phases of play.
The midfield five will likely include Arkadiusz Pyrka operating as the right wing-back, though his inclusion remains doubtful,offering width and defensive tracking when fit. Through the centre, Joel Chima Fujita, James Sands, and Jackson Irvine should form the core of St. Pauli’s engine room.
Fujita will play as the deep distributor, Sands provides balance and ball-winning ability, and Irvine pushes forward with late runs and leadership in transitional moments. On the left flank, young talent Louis Oppie is expected to operate as the wing-back, tasked with stretching Bayern’s defensive structure when possible.
Up front, St. Pauli will rely on the partnership of Andreas Hountondji and Mathias Pereira Lage. Hountondji’s strength, mobility, and hold-up play make him the focal point of their attacking transitions, while Pereira Lage offers creativity and intelligent movement in the channels. Together, they form the primary threat for a team that has struggled to find goals but must make the most of every opportunity against Bayern’s high defensive line.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Pyrka, Fujita, Sands, Irvine, Oppie; Hountondji, Pereira Lage
Key Stats
- Bayern Munich have lost just one of their last 47 Bundesliga matches at the Allianz Arena. During that span, they have averaged over 3 goals per game,.
- FC St. Pauli enter this fixture on a run of eight consecutive league defeats, the longest losing streak in the club’s Bundesliga history. They have scored only one goal across their last six matches.
- Bayern Munich have scored 35 goals in their last 10 home matches in all competitions, while St. Pauli have scored just 11 goals in total all season. The difference in offensive production is the largest gap between any two Bundesliga sides heading into the weekend.
- Harry Kane has contributed to a goal in 11 straight Bundesliga appearances, while St. Pauli have failed to score in five of their last six league games. One striker alone has outscored the entire opposing squad.
- St. Pauli have not beaten Bayern Munich since 2002, and they have never won a competitive game at the Allianz Arena. In their last four meetings in Munich, Bayern have scored 13 goals to St. Pauli’s 3.
Player to Watch
Harry Kane
What makes Kane especially pivotal in this matchup against St. Pauli is his ability to exploit defensive uncertainty. The visitors enter the fixture on a historic losing streak, leaking goals while struggling to maintain compactness.
Kane’s movement between the lines, his timing when dropping into midfield, and his precision in the penalty box all pose problems that a confidence-starved St. Pauli back three may struggle to solve. Whether receiving the ball with his back to goal or ghosting into pockets behind defenders, the Englishman’s intelligence forces opponents to make uncomfortable choices.
Kane’s link-up with Michael Olise, Luis Diaz, and Lennart Karl adds a fresh layer of danger. His passing range allows Bayern Munich to switch the rhythm of play in an instant, while his ability to create space for runners makes the entire frontline more unpredictable. Against a defence that has conceded first in eight straight matches, Kane’s presence alone demands constant attention, and often, that is not enough.
In a game where Bayern Munich will dominate possession and generate a high volume of chances, Kane stands poised to once again be at the heart of everything. If he finds his rhythm early, St. Pauli will face an uphill battle from the opening whistle.
Prediction
Bayern Munich 4-0 FC St. Pauli
Bayern Munich enter this match wounded but far from weakened. Their first defeat of the season against Arsenal exposed some vulnerabilities, yet it is precisely in moments like these that Bayern traditionally reassert their authority. With the Allianz Arena behind them and several key players regaining fitness, Vincent Kompany’s side should approach this fixture with both urgency and clarity.
St. Pauli, in contrast, arrive in Munich carrying the weight of eight straight league defeats and an attack that has virtually collapsed. Their lack of goals, fragile defensive structure, and growing injury list leave them with little margin for error. Even if Alexander Blessin’s men show resilience, the gulf in quality, depth, and form between the two sides is simply too great.
Bayern have a history of responding emphatically to setbacks, and with Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luiz Diaz all available to lead the attacking charge, the hosts are likely to impose themselves early and sustain pressure throughout. St. Pauli may attempt to frustrate Bayern with a compact back five and transitional play, but their recent inability to generate meaningful chances makes an upset highly improbable.
Ultimately, this fixture looks set to follow a familiar script: Bayern dominant, St. Pauli overmatched, and the league leaders restoring their momentum with conviction. The Hard Tackle predicts a 4-0 win for Kompany and his charges.
