Form will count for little as Inter Milan welcome AC Milan in the latest Derby della Madonnina on Wednesday night.
The Derby della Madonnina is always laced with passion, history, and high stakes, but this time, it’s everything. With
a place in the Coppa Italia final on the line, Inter Milan and AC Milan will meet for the fifth and final time this season, locked in a 1-1 aggregate scoreline following a fiercely contested first leg.
While the two Milanese giants find themselves at opposite ends of the domestic form table, both clubs enter this midweek showdown with plenty to prove and everything to gain.
Simone Inzaghi’s side might not carry the same aura of invincibility they boasted in 2023, but they are still firmly in the running for a historic treble: Serie A, Champions League, and Coppa Italia.
After racing to a 13-match unbeaten streak across all competitions, Inter were handed a reality check at the weekend, suffering a 1-0 defeat away to Bologna courtesy of a last-minute goal. It was a rare lapse in an otherwise dominant campaign that has seen the Nerazzurri go toe-to-toe with Napoli for the Scudetto and reach the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League, eliminating Bayern Munich along the way.
The first leg against Milan offered a mixed bag for Inzaghi. While Hakan Calhanoglu’s screamer provided a moment of inspiration, Inter’s usual fluidity was blunted by a masterclass in goalkeeping from Mike Maignan. Despite their best efforts, Inter were denied victory, making the second leg a must-win to keep their treble hopes alive.
Their recent record in the Derby della Madonnina has taken a dent too. After winning six straight between January 2023 and April 2024, Inter Milan have now gone four derbies without a win (two draws, two losses), and that shift in momentum against AC Milan has not gone unnoticed.
Still, Inter can take confidence from their impressive record in knockout football under Inzaghi. The Coppa Italia has been fertile ground, with two trophies in the last three seasons. With Giuseppe Meazza on their side, the Nerazzurri will believe they have the tools to deliver once more.
For AC Milan, the Coppa Italia semi-final against Inter Milan is more than just another derby, it is their final hope of salvaging a season that began with promise but has since unravelled alarmingly.
Sergio Conceicao made waves when he arrived at AC Milan, winning the Supercoppa Italiana in January by defeating Inter Milan, but that early success has given way to chaos. The Rossoneri currently sit ninth in Serie A, 20 points adrift of their city rivals and outside the European qualification spots.
Their 1-0 loss to Atalanta BC on Sunday was a damning indictment of their inconsistency and lack of attacking edge. Milan have now kept just one clean sheet in their last ten home games, and even a recent tactical switch to a back three has not fully shored up the defensive frailties.
Yet, there is a silver lining. AC Milan have turned the tide in the derby this season — two draws and two wins have helped them reassert their belief against an Inter Milan side that had bullied them for over a year. In the first leg, they were outplayed in spells but held firm, relying on Maignan’s brilliance and Abraham’s composure.
For Milan, winning this match could represent both redemption and resurrection. A place in the Coppa Italia final would not only add silverware to their season but also secure a backdoor route into European competition, which could be essential for attracting reinforcements and retaining key players.
But the task is monumental. Inter have been a juggernaut at home this term, and Milan’s league form suggests they will need something close to perfect execution to walk away with a victory. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Inter Milan
With a relentless run of fixtures in April continuing, Inter Milan manager Simone Inzaghi must rotate his squad wisely for this season-defining Coppa Italia semi-final. The Nerazzurri are juggling three major fronts — Serie A, Champions League, and Coppa Italia- and with a crucial domestic clash against Roma at the weekend and a European semi-final looming against Barcelona, squad management has never been more vital.
Inzaghi will once again have to make do without key wing-back Denzel Dumfries, who remains sidelined with a muscular issue. Polish international Piotr Zielinski, who has yet to play a decisive role in the campaign, is also unavailable due to injury.
Meanwhile, the in-demand Marcus Thuram, a regular strike partner to Lautaro Martinez, remains a serious doubt after picking up a knock; his absence was felt against Bologna and could significantly affect Inter’s attacking rhythm if he fails to recover in time for Wednesday night.
On the suspension front, Alessandro Bastoni and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are both one yellow card away from a domestic ban, though this applies only to Serie A matches and not the Coppa Italia. Therefore, both are expected to feature prominently on Wednesday.
If Thuram is unavailable, the responsibility of leading the line alongside Lautaro Martinez could fall on either Joaquin Correa, who started against Bologna, or veterans Marko Arnautovic and Mehdi Taremi, who offer experience and physical presence. Meanwhile, Martinez is on the verge of history, just one goal away from becoming only the third Inter player to reach double digits in the Derby della Madonnina.
In terms of tactical setup, Inter are expected to line up in their trusted 3-5-2 formation. Yann Sommer will retain his place in goal, shielded by a defensive trio of Yann Bisseck, Stefan de Vrij, and Alessandro Bastoni.
Wing-backs Matteo Darmian and Carlos Augusto will provide width, while the central midfield trio will consist of Nicolò Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan — an engine room that combines creativity, composure, and tactical intelligence. Up front, Mehdi Taremi should start alongside Lautaro Martinez if Thuram fails to make the squad.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Augusto; Taremi, Martinez
AC Milan
Sergio Conceicao faces a critical selection dilemma heading into this decisive Coppa Italia semi-final second leg. AC Milan are still licking their wounds after a frustrating 1-0 defeat to Atalanta at the weekend, and several key players remain unavailable through injury.
The absence of Kyle Walker and Emerson Royal continues to limit Conceicao’s flexibility on the flanks, while Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who has been an influential figure in midfield this season, is also ruled out. The bright side, however, is the return of striker Santiago Gimenez, who resumed full training recently and even made a late appearance from the bench in the weekend loss.
While the Mexican striker is not expected to start, his presence will be a welcome option in the second half if AC Milan need a late goal. Up front, the competition for the central striker role remains fierce, with Tammy Abraham and Luka Jovic battling for a place in the starting XI.
Abraham, who has found form in key cup ties this season, is likely to get the nod again, flanked by Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic in a revamped 3-4-3 formation. This setup reflects Conceicao’s tactical shift in recent weeks, designed to shore up the defence while offering width and pace in the final third.
Mike Maignan will continue in goal, providing leadership and world-class shot-stopping abilities. In front of him, the back three should consist of Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlovic — a blend of physicality, positioning, and aerial strength. With both first-choice full-backs sidelined, Alex Jimenez is expected to retain his place on the right flank, while Theo Hernández offers his usual dynamic presence on the left.
In central midfield, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are expected to form the core pairing, responsible for disrupting Inter’s rhythm and launching counters from deep. Both players bring a balance of energy and passing range, which will be vital in transitional play.
Given the high stakes and Milan’s desperate need for silverware, and perhaps more crucially, a route back into Europe, this setup gives Conceicao the attacking edge and defensive structure required to go toe-to-toe with Inter in one of the most important Derby della Madonnina clashes in recent memory.
Probable Lineup (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao
Key Stats
- Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last four Coppa Italia matches against AC Milan, including two wins and two draws. The last time Milan beat Inter in this competition was back in January 2017.
- AC Milan have managed just one clean sheet in their last 10 home matches in all competitions, conceding in nine straight games at San Siro.
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 9 Coppa Italia home matches, winning seven and drawing two. Their last defeat at home in this competition came back in 2017.
- Inter were unbeaten in six straight Milan derbies between January 2023 and April 2024, but AC Milan have avoided defeat in all four meetings this season, winning two and drawing two. This includes their Supercoppa Italiana victory and the 1-1 first-leg draw.
- Inter are aiming for their second treble in history — Serie A, Coppa Italia, and Champions League — having already reached the Champions League semi-finals and sitting joint-top of the league with Napoli. A win here would keep their domestic treble hopes very much alive.
Player to Watch
Lautaro Martinez
When it comes to the Derby della Madonnina, few players rise to the occasion quite like Lautaro Martínez. The Argentine internationa has carved out a reputation for delivering in the biggest of moments, and Wednesday night offers him another golden opportunity to etch his name deeper into Inter Milan folklore.
With nine career goals against AC Milan, Martinez is just one strike away from becoming only the third player in Inter history to hit double digits in goals in the iconic derby. His sharp movement, tireless pressing, and clinical finishing make him a constant menace for opposition defenders, and in the absence of Marcus Thuram, even more of the creative and scoring burden will fall on his shoulders.
Martínez not only leads Inter’s scoring charts this season but also serves as the emotional heartbeat of the team. Whether dropping deep to link play or leading the line with aggression, his influence is undeniable. In a match where margins will be razor-thin and every chance could decide the tie, expect the World Cup winner to once again be the man Inter turn to for inspiration.
Prediction
Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan (Inter win 3-2 on aggregate)
AC Milan will not go down without a fight, but Inter’s home advantage, better squad depth, and attacking quality should carry them over the line. Expect Milan to create chances, particularly if Mike Maignan continues his heroics.
However, Lautaro Martinez and Hakan Calhanoglu could ultimately be the difference-makers. Simone Inzaghi’s men will have to dig deep, but they should edge a pulsating contest and take another step toward domestic dominance. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Inzaghi and his charges.