Al-Ahli vs Al-Nassr: Preview and Prediction

Two in-form teams will face off when Al-Ahli welcome Al-Nassr on Thursday.

A highly anticipated Saudi Pro League showdown awaits on Thursday evening as two of the league’s most in-form teams, Al-Ahli and Al-Nassr, clash at King Abdullah Sports City. Both sides enter this encounter on the back of an impressive run, setting up a thrilling contest between two top contenders for AFC Champions League qualification.

Matthias Jaissle’s side has rebounded strongly from their 2-1 defeat against Al-Okhdood, embarking on a five-match winning streak across all competitions. In this period, Al-Ahli have registered Saudi Pro League victories over Al-Ettifaq, Al-Riyadh, and Al-Orubah, while also defeating Al-Sadd in the AFC Champions League.

Their most recent outing saw them grind out a 2-0 win over Al-Fateh, in a game defined by penalty drama. Ivan Toney converted twice from the spot after an eventful first half saw Al-Fateh’s Hussain Qassem sent off in the 14th minute and Al-Ahli’s Saad Yaslam dismissed in the 39th. The result consolidated Al-Ahli’s place in the top five with 38 points, leaving them just three points behind Al-Nassr, who currently occupy third place.

With an eye on the Champions League qualification spots, Al-Ahli will look to take full advantage of their superb home form. They have amassed 22 points from a possible 27 at King Abdullah Sports City, making them the league’s third-best home team.

Al-Nassr have been even more dominant in recent weeks, riding a seven-match unbeaten streak while securing four straight league wins. Their most recent outing saw them cruise to a 3-0 victory over Al Fayha, with new signing Jhon Durán scoring twice before Cristiano Ronaldo added a third, marking his first goal since turning 40.

With 20 points from a possible 27 away from home, Al-Nassr boast the league’s second-best away record, further boosting their confidence as they travel to face Al-Ahli. Stefano Pioli’s side also holds the psychological edge in this matchup, having won four of their last six meetings against Al-Ahli.

Notably, three of those victories came on the road, and they will be aiming to make it four straight-away wins in this fixture for the first time ever. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how Al-Ahli and Al-Nassr could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Al-Ahli

Al-Ahli will be without Saad Yaslam, who is suspended for this fixture after receiving a red card in their previous match against Al-Fateh. His absence will force head coach Matthias Jaissle to make at least one defensive change.

In midfield, Alexsander and Abdullah Otayf remain sidelined due to injury, meaning that Gabri Veiga and Ziyad Al-Johani are likely to retain their spots in the double pivot. Their presence will be crucial in both shielding the Al-Hilal defence and dictating the tempo against a high-scoring Al-Nassr side.

Going forward, Al-Ahli have an abundance of attacking quality. Riyad Mahrez and Galeno are expected to form an exciting attacking duo on the wings behind Ivan Toney, who continues to lead the line. Toney’s clinical finishing and hold-up play make him a key figure in Jaissle’s attacking setup, particularly in a game where counter-attacks could be crucial.

Al-Ahli are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Edouard Mendy starting in goal. In defence, Mohammed Bakor will operate at right-back, while the centre-back pairing will consist of Merih Demiral and Franck Kessie, the latter likely dropping into a defensive role due to Yaslam’s suspension. On the left flank, Abdullah Al-Ammar will provide width and defensive cover.

The midfield pivot will consist of Gabri Veiga and Ziyad Al-Johani, both of whom will be responsible for breaking up play and linking defence to attack.

In the attacking third, Riyad Mahrez will operate from the right wing, bringing creativity and experience. Feras Albrikan is set to feature in the central attacking midfield role, where his vision and ability to drop deep will be key. Galeno will provide pace and dribbling ability from the left flank.

Spearheading the attack will be Ivan Toney, who has been in fine form. His ability to score from open play and set pieces makes him a significant threat, especially against an Al-Nassr defence that can be vulnerable under pressure.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Mendy; Bakor, Demiral, Kessie, Al Ammar; Veiga, Aljohani; Mahrez, Albrikan, Galeno; Toney

Al-Ahli vs Al-Nassr: Preview and Prediction.

Al-Nassr

Otavio remains a doubt for this fixture, with the Portuguese midfielder possibly missing his second consecutive match due to injury. His absence will be a blow to Stefano Pioli’s setup, as Otávio’s creativity and work rate have been key components of Al-Nassr’s midfield.

Meanwhile, Jhon Duran and Cristiano Ronaldo have begun forming a formidable strike partnership, starting together in the last two matches. Ronaldo continues to lead the Saudi Pro League Golden Boot race with 16 goals, two more than Karim Benzema of Al-Ittihad. The 40-year-old forward will be eager to extend his lead in the scoring charts as he looks to guide Al-Nassr to another victory.

On the injury front, Sami Al-Najei remains a long-term absentee as he continues his recovery from a cruciate ligament tear sustained in August 2024. Meanwhile, Aymeric Laporte, who missed four matches for personal reasons, made his return to the lineup in the previous game and is expected to retain his place at the heart of the defence.

Al-Nassr will set up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Bento continuing as the first-choice goalkeeper. In defence, Nawaf Al-Boushal will feature at right-back, while the centre-back pairing will consist of Ali Lajami and Aymeric Laporte. On the left, Salem Al-Najdi is expected to start again, providing defensive cover and overlapping support.

In midfield, Angelo will take up the right flank, bringing creativity and technical ability, while Marcelo Brozovic and Abdullah Al-Khaibari will operate as the central midfield duo, controlling the tempo and protecting the backline. On the left, Sadio Mane will provide pace and attacking width, with his ability to cut inside creating additional goalscoring opportunities.

Leading the attack will be Cristiano Ronaldo and Jhon Duran, who have developed strong chemistry in the final third. Ronaldo remains the primary goal threat, while Duran’s movement and pressing ability will complement his legendary strike partner.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Bento; Boushal, Lajami, Laporte, Al Najdi; Angelo, Brozovic, Al-Khaibari, Mane; Ronaldo, Duran

Al-Ahli vs Al-Nassr: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Al-Nassr have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning four of their last six matches against Al-Ahli. The only exceptions were 1-1 draws in May 2022 and September 2024 (this season’s reverse fixture).

  • Al-Nassr have won six of their eight away matches in the Saudi Pro League this season, collecting 20 points from a possible 27, making them the second-best away team in the league.

  • Al-Ahli have been one of the best home sides in the league, securing 22 points from a possible 27 at King Abdullah Sports City. This makes them the third-best home team in the Saudi Pro League.

  • Al-Nassr have scored 19 goals in their last seven matches across all competitions. They have netted three or more goals in five of those matches.

Player to Watch

Jhon Duran

Embed from Getty Images

The Colombian forward showcased his ability in the 3-0 victory over Al-Fayha, where he scored twice — his first goals for the club. His movement, strength, and finishing ability make him a perfect complement to Ronaldo, adding another layer of attacking threat for Stefano Pioli’s side.

Duran’s physical presence and high pressing intensity make him a difficult striker to defend against. He is quick, powerful, and aggressive in the final third, traits that could be crucial against an Al-Ahli defence missing key personnel. With Aymeric Laporte returning to stabilize Al-Nassr’s backline, the team can push forward with confidence, and Duran will be expected to capitalize on any defensive lapses.

With Cristiano Ronaldo attracting much of the defensive attention, Duran will have the opportunity to exploit space, make darting runs behind defenders, and get into goal-scoring positions. His recent form suggests he could be a game-changer, and if he continues building his chemistry with Ronaldo, Al-Nassr’s attack could prove too much for Al-Ahli to handle.

Prediction

Al-Ahli 2-3 Al-Nassr

Both teams come into this game in red-hot form, making this an incredibly tough contest to call. Al-Ahli’s defensive solidity (three clean sheets in their last five games) will be tested by Al-Nassr’s prolific attack, which has scored 19 goals in their last seven matches. Given Al-Nassr’s superior away record and head-to-head dominance, they might just edge this encounter. However, Al-Ahli’s home strength ensures this will be a close affair, likely featuring plenty of goals.

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