AC Milan vs Parma: Preview and Prediction

AC Milan will be keen to move up the Serie A standings when they take on Parma on Sunday.

AC Milan will be desperate to reclaim some consistency in Serie A when they host relegation-threatened Parma at San Siro on Sunday. While Milan have been exceptional in Europe this season, racking up five consecutive Champions League victories, their domestic form has been far from impressive, as they languish in eighth place after 20 league games.

Sergio Conceicao’s men suffered a disappointing 2-0 loss to Juventus in their last league outing, continuing a string of underwhelming results in Serie A. The Rossoneri have picked up less than 35 points by this stage for the first time in five seasons, a reflection of their ongoing struggles. Compounding matters is their recent home form in the league, where they have drawn four of their last five matches, including each of the last three.

That said, Milan’s Champions League form is a testament to their attacking strength and resilience. Their midweek 1-0 win over Girona sealed a fifth straight European victory, with Rafael Leao’s decisive finish showcasing his class once again. Having already secured a playoff place, Milan can now focus on steadying their domestic ship, starting with Sunday’s clash.

Parma, meanwhile, arrive at San Siro battling for survival in their first season back in the top flight. After pulling off a shock 2-1 win against Milan in August, Fabio Pecchia’s side have struggled for consistency but remain competitive. Last week’s 1-1 draw against Venezia, courtesy of Hernani’s penalty, helped them maintain a slender buffer over the relegation zone.

The Gialloblu have picked up five points from their last four games, equaling Milan’s tally over the same period, but their poor away record against the Rossoneri—with just one win in their last 20 visits to San Siro—suggests Sunday could be a tall order.

With crucial clashes against Lecce and Cagliari on the horizon, Parma will view this game as a chance to gain a morale boost, while Milan aim to restore confidence ahead of their crucial UEFA Champions League clash against Dinamo Zagreb. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

AC Milan

Sergio Conceicao may make several changes to his lineup on Sunday, with a crucial Champions League decider and the Derby della Madonnina against Inter looming next week. The Rossoneri will welcome back Christian Pulisic, who made a brief appearance against Girona after recovering from injury, while Samuel Chukwueze could also be available for the first time since December. Additionally, Fikayo Tomori returns to the squad after serving a one-match ban in UEFA competitions.

However, Milan are set to be without several key players for this clash. Emerson Royal, Malick Thiaw, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are sidelined, while Alessandro Florenzi remains a long-term absentee. Recent signing Kyle Walker is also unavailable, as the English full-back has only just joined the squad from Manchester City and needs time to integrate.

In goal in the 4-2-3-1 formation, Mike Maignan will provide stability for the Rossoneri. The back four is expected to feature Davide Calabria at right-back, Matteo Gabbia partnering Fikayo Tomori in central defence, and Theo Hernandez at left-back.

In midfield, Ismael Bennacer and Youssouf Fofana will form a double pivot, offering a blend of creativity and defensive cover. The attacking trio behind the striker is likely to consist of Christian Pulisic on the right wing, Tijjani Reijnders in a central attacking role, and Rafael Leao on the left wing. Leading the line for Milan will be Alvaro Morata, providing experience and a physical presence upfront.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Fofana; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Morata

AC Milan vs Parma: Preview and Prediction.

Parma

Parma will head into this match with a considerable list of absentees. The defensive trio of Botond Balogh, Yordan Osorio, and Alessandro Circati remain sidelined due to injuries, alongside midfielders Adrian Bernabe and Mateusz Kowalski, and striker Gabriel Charpentier. This long list of unavailable players will test manager Fabio Pecchia’s ability to manage his squad effectively.

On a positive note, Parma has strengthened their squad in recent weeks. Newly signed defender Alessandro Vogliacco started in central defence during their match against Venezia and is expected to retain his place. The club also added forwards Jacob Ondrejka and Milan Djuric this week, with Djuric potentially displacing Ange-Yoan Bonny as the lone striker.

One certainty in the final third is the inclusion of Dennis Man, who has been Parma’s most influential attacker this season, with a club-high seven Serie A goal involvements. Since joining in 2021, the Romanian international has scored the most goals (28) and provided the most assists (13) for the club in all competitions.

In goal, Leandro Suzuki will start behind a back four consisting of Enrico Del Prato at right-back, Lautaro Valenti and Alessandro Vogliacco as the central defenders, and Giuseppe Valeri at left-back. In midfield, Rinaldo Keita and Simon Sohm will form a double pivot, offering defensive stability and ball progression in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

The attacking midfield trio is expected to include Dennis Man on the right wing, Hernani in a central playmaking role, and Valentin Mihaila on the left flank. Leading the line for Parma will likely be Ange-Yoan Bonny, though he could face competition from new signing Milan Djuric.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Del Prato, Valenti, Vogliacco, Valeri; Keita, Sohm; Man, Hernani, Mihaila; Bonny

AC Milan vs Parma: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Only Roma (34) have won more Serie A games against Parma than AC Milan (29). Milan have 14 draws and 12 losses in 55 meetings against Parma. However, following Parma’s 2-1 victory in August, they could secure two league wins in a row against Milan for the first time since the 2013/14 season (3-2 and 4-2 wins under Roberto Donadoni).
  • AC Milan have lost just one of their last 20 home matches against Parma in Serie A, winning 15 and drawing four. Among teams they have faced at least 20 times at home, Milan boast a higher win rate only against Cagliari (79%) compared to Parma (70% – 16 wins in 23 matches).
  • Milan have accumulated fewer than 35 points (31) from their first 20 Serie A games for the first time since the 2019/20 season (28 points). The last time Milan finished in the top four after having 31 points or fewer at this stage was in the 2012/13 campaign when they ended third.
  • Following their defeat to Juventus last time out, Milan risk losing two Serie A matches in a row for the first time since January-February 2023, when they lost three consecutive games against Lazio, Sassuolo, and Inter.
  • Milan have drawn four of their last five home Serie A games (W1), including each of their last three. The last time Milan drew four consecutive home games in the top flight was between October 1994 and January 1995, a run that included a match against Parma.

Player to Watch

Rafael Leao

Embed from Getty Images

Milan’s Portuguese winger, Rafael Leão, remains one of the Rossoneri’s most pivotal attacking outlets. Known for his blistering pace, silky dribbling, and ability to cut inside to devastating effect, Leão has been a constant menace for opposing defences. His direct runs and creativity on the left flank provide a crucial spark for Milan’s offensive play, especially during tight games.

This season, Leão has contributed with a combination of goals and assists, demonstrating his capacity to both finish and create scoring opportunities. Against Parma, a side that has struggled defensively at times, Leão’s flair and ability to exploit space on the counter-attack will be key.

Moreover, with Milan struggling for consistency in Serie A, Leão will likely shoulder a significant amount of the responsibility to propel the Rossoneri back into the top-four race. Fans at the San Siro will be looking to him for inspiration and moments of magic to secure three crucial points in this matchup.

Prediction

AC Milan 2-0 Parma

Milan’s European form and home advantage should prove too much for Parma, who will likely struggle to breach the Rossoneri’s defence. Look for Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud to spearhead Milan’s attack, while Parma’s survival battle will likely be decided in future clashes against fellow strugglers.

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