Leeds United will be keen not to relinquish top spot when they take on Derby County this Sunday night in the EFL Championship.
As 2024 concludes, Derby County and Leeds United find themselves at opposite ends of the Championship table. Derby, fresh off a return to the second tier, aim to maintain stability in the mid-table, while Leeds, under Daniel Farke, are pushing for an immediate Premier League return and leading the division by goal difference.
After promotion from League One, Derby County are enjoying a solid return to the Championship. Sitting 14th in the standings with a record of seven wins, six draws, and ten losses from 23 matches, Paul Warne’s team is comfortably clear of the relegation zone. With 27 points to their name, the Rams have an eight-point cushion from the bottom three.
Derby come into this match following a morale-boosting 3-1 win over West Bromwich Albion on Boxing Day. A first-half Jerry Yates brace and a Mason Holgate own goal gave them a commanding lead, although Grady Diangana’s late strike caused some anxious moments. The Rams saw out the victory, marking their second win in three games.
Despite their improved form, history does not favour Derby when it comes to hosting Leeds at Pride Park. They haven’t beaten the Whites at home in four matches, with their last victory dating back to October 2016. Nevertheless, their recent home form — wins over Portsmouth and West Brom — offers hope of pulling off an upset.
Leeds United are in fine form and sit atop the Championship table on goal difference after a clinical 2-0 victory over Stoke City on Boxing Day. Joel Piroe’s brace took his season tally to 14 league goals, keeping Leeds narrowly ahead of Sheffield United and Burnley in a tightly contested promotion race.
Under Daniel Farke, Leeds have showcased their attacking prowess, scoring a league-high 43 goals while also boasting the third-best defensive record (15 goals conceded). They have also proven adept at grinding out wins, as shown by their 13 victories in 14 games when opening the scoring this season.
Having already beaten Derby 2-0 earlier this month, Leeds will look to complete the league double and maintain their position at the summit. Goals from Joe Rodon and Maximilian Wober secured the reverse fixture at Elland Road, and another strong defensive display will be key as the Whites aim to close out the year with a fifth win in six games. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Derby County
Derby County will be without key centre-back Eiran Cashin, who remains sidelined due to a hamstring problem sustained in the 4-0 win over Portsmouth earlier this month. Additionally, defender Ryan Nyambe (knee) and midfielder David Ozoh (quad) will also miss Sunday’s clash against Leeds United.
Further concerns linger around Ben Osborn, who missed the Boxing Day victory against West Bromwich Albion due to an undisclosed injury and will face a late fitness test.
In terms of team selection, Derby County are likely to maintain a similar lineup to the one that defeated West Brom. The home side’s probable lineup in a 4-3-3 formation includes Jacob Widell Zetterstrom as the goalkeeper, shielded by a backline of Kane Wilson at right-back, Curtis Nelson and Nat Phillips at centre-back, and Callum Elder at left-back.
The midfield trio could feature Kenzo Goudmijn, Ebou Adams, and Marcus Harness, providing a blend of creativity and defensive cover. The front three is expected to comprise Kayden Jackson and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing on the wings, with Jerry Yates leading the line as the central striker.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Widell; Wilson, Nelson, Phillips, Elder; Goudmijn, Adams, Harness; Jackson, Mendez-Laing, Yates
Leeds United
Leeds United will head into Sunday’s clash with Derby County still dealing with injury concerns. Full-back Junior Firpo (hamstring) and midfielder Ilia Gruev (knee) remain sidelined, continuing their absence from recent matches.
Additionally, defender Maximilian Wober is in doubt after missing the last two fixtures against Oxford United and Stoke City due to fitness issues, and he will need to be assessed by the medical staff. Manager Daniel Farke is likely to minimise changes to his lineup, though he may reintroduce Ao Tanaka to strengthen the midfield.
In terms of formation, Leeds United are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 system. Illan Meslier will take his place between the posts, with a backline comprising Jayden Bogle at right-back, Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk as the central defenders, and Sam Byram at left-back.
The midfield double pivot should feature Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rothwell, offering stability and control. In the attacking third, Dan James and Manor Solomon are set to operate on the flanks, while Brenden Aaronson assumes the playmaking role behind striker Joel Piroe, who leads the line for the visitors.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Byram; Ampadu, Rothwell; James, Aaronson, Solomon; Piroe
Key Stats
- Derby County have failed to win any of their last six league games against Leeds United, managing only two draws and suffering four defeats since a 2-1 victory back in October 2017 under Gary Rowett.
- Leeds United are aiming to secure three consecutive away league wins against Derby County for the first time in over 60 years, with their last such streak occurring between 1954 and 1960.
- Derby County has won their final league match of the year in each of the last seven seasons and has been unbeaten in their last 13 games (W10 D3). Their last defeat in a year-ending fixture was a 5-2 loss to Nottingham Forest in 2010.
- Leeds United have only won their final league match of the year twice in the last 14 seasons (D4 L8). However, those two wins were emphatic, scoring five goals in each: a 5-4 win over Birmingham City in 2019 and a 5-0 victory against West Bromwich Albion in 2020.
- Leeds manager Daniel Farke was winless in his first five Championship games against Derby County (D2 L3), but he has since won both of his last two encounters with the Rams.
Player to Watch
Joel Piroe
The Dutch striker has emerged as one of the Championship’s most consistent and lethal forwards, scoring critical goals for the promotion-chasing Whites.
Piroe’s clinical finishing and ability to find space in the box make him a constant threat to any defence. He has already scored multiple braces this season, including his recent standout performance against Stoke City on Boxing Day, where his two goals sealed a vital win for Leeds.
With Derby County’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in dealing with direct and physical strikers, Piroe’s sharpness and movement will be pivotal in exploiting any lapses. As the focal point of Leeds’ attacking play, his knack for being in the right place at the right time could prove decisive yet again. If Leeds are to extend their lead at the top of the table, much will depend on Piroe’s finishing touch and ability to carry the scoring burden.
Prediction
Derby County 0-2 Leeds United
Leeds come into this match as strong favourites, buoyed by their position at the top of the table and a formidable record against Derby. With Joel Piroe in scintillating form and a defence that has kept three clean sheets in five matches, the Whites have all the tools to dominate this encounter.
Derby County will look to capitalise on home support and take inspiration from their Boxing Day win, but their inconsistent form and struggles against top sides may prove too much to overcome. Joel Piroe is likely to continue his hot streak, and Leeds should see out the game with another professional display.
